The not-so-democratic regimes of Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam must be worried ... Myanmar starts to march to a different beat

YEARENDER: Myanmar starts to march to a different beat

YANGON, Dec 11, 2011
DPA

The not-so-democratic regimes of Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam must be worried.

Myanmar has started to shed its regional status as everyone's favourite whipping boy for human rights abuses and undemocratic rule this year, as the government elected in 2010 started to make some changes.

There is still far to go for the former pariah state, but human rights and pro-democracy groups may need to refocus their campaigns on less obvious targets next year, which is bad news for the region's more modest offenders.

Against all expectations, the pro-military government that won last year's general election has pushed through both political and economic reforms, maybe minor ones by international standards but massive by Myanmar's.

The Arab Spring no doubt offered some inspiration, as did the sharp appreciation of the kyat currency, but some of the motivation appears to have come from within.

President Thein Sein, an ex-general with an unusually clean track record for a military man, started the reforms rolling in mid-August when he invited opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi up to the capital Naypyitaw for private talks.

Such a meeting was unthinkable under former junta chief Senior General Than Shwe.

Than Shwe, now retired, allegedly anointed Thein Sein for the post of president, but observers are not ruling out the possibility that the latter is nonetheless his own man.

"If Thein Sein was not in a position to move freely, he would not have met with Aung San Suu Kyi, because Than Shwe hated her," said Kwin Maung Swe, a leader of the National Democratic Force, a breakaway faction from Suu Kyi's main opposition party.

No one can be certain what words passed between Thein Sein and Suu Kyi on that historic day, but the meeting signalled the regime's acknowledgement that they needed Myanmar's Nobel laureate on board.

"During that first meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, Thein Sein told her, 'We understand that you are the heart of the people,'" said Nyan Win, a spokesman for Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party.

Such words from the president would be well-chosen, as he is desperate to get the West's economic sanctions on Myanmar lifted.

Since August, Thien Sein and Suu Kyi appear to have followed a well-planned script.

Suu Kyi demanded that political prisoners be released before she plays ball. The regime released more than 200 prisoners on October 12, leaving an estimated 600 to 1,600 behind bars.

The NLD demanded that the party registration act, which prevented it from contesting last year's polls, be amended. Parliament pushed the amendment through on November 5.

Last month, the NLD applied to reregister as a legitimate political party to contest a by-election for 48 vacant seats, scheduled some time next year. Approval is pending.

Suu Kyi, 66, will contest the polls, and will probably win, earning herself a seat in Parliament where she will no doubt become the country's legitimate opposition leader.

The West has watched all these developments with cautious optimism, rewarding the new government with a flurry of high-profile trips, topped on December 1-3 with the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Clinton promised to match further reforms from the regime with rewards such as increased support to the government from multinational agencies, including the United Nations.

The main prize will be lifting economic sanctions, but Clinton insisted that will require more releases of political prisoners and sincere efforts to end Myanmar's civil wars with its ethnic minority insurgencies that have been going on for six decades.

The country is home to a wide variety of ethnic groups in addition to the majority Burmans. Many groups resent the exploitation of their regions' rich natural resources by the central state.

In the light of improving inter-ethnic relations in the country, the European Union is to decide in April whether to renew its own sanctions on Myanmar.

If Suu Kyi is ensconced in parliament by then, the argument for sanctions to support her struggle will have lost some weight.

Some progress is already evident in the complex ethnic minority question. On November 19 the government initiated ceasefire talks with four of the rebel groups.

On December 3, the last day of Clinton's visit, a tentative truce was signed with the Shan State Army, one of the strongest and longest-running insurgencies.

"I think since the November 19 initiative the trust has been building," said Kuensai Jaiyen, editor of the Shan Herald News Agency, a rebel publication.

Significantly, the ceasefire talks were led not by the Myanmar Army but by Rail Transportation Minister Aung Min, a close associate of Thein Sein's. "He seems to be getting along quite well with the non-Burman leaders," Kuensai said.