Friday, May 25, 2012

Hun Sen on Election Footing

The Diplomat,  Luke Hunt, May 25, 2012

Commune elections next month are set to offer an interesting test of the Cambodian People’s Party's popularity.

Image credit: World Economic Forum
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) have been on election footing since the second half of 2011. The big test is still a year out, when national elections will mark 20 years since U.N. troops oversaw the first ballot that began this country’s transition to democracy.

However, commune elections will be held on June 3, and will provide an important test for the CPP, which has trounced virtually all opposition ranks in recent years. There are about 1,620 communes across the country. Each represents a cluster of villages and the elections, held every five years, aren’t unlike council or local district polls in the West.

The CPP will head into the poll as overwhelming favorite, but how the opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), whose namesake leader lives in self-imposed exile following a conviction, fares will provide valuable insights into Hun Sen’s broader popularity.

His government has been beset by angry protests over alleged land grabs, a yawning wealth gap coupled with rising prices for everyday goods and high handedness and corruption among government officials.

This could translate into a loss of votes, particularly in Phnom Penh and provincial cities where Sam Rainsy has traditionally polled well. Further complicating the issues this year are the royalists, who have been a spent force at recent polls.

Funcinpec had for years played a political game of cat and mouse with Hun Sen until its leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh, son of the King Father and half-brother of King Norodom Sihamoni, was banished by his own members for gross corruption and Funcinpec effectively split and fell apart.

His banishment came after a court jailed him for 18 months in absentia after he quietly sold off Funcinpec party headquarters as if it was personal asset and then re-directed the fund to acquire a private property.

Now, a deal has been struck aimed at ending the animosity between the two main royalist parties. This means the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) will merge with Funcinpec to form a single party under the Funcinpec name. However, Funcinpec has a long and difficult road ahead if it’s to make any kind of return from the political oblivion. At the 2008 national poll, the NRP and Funcinpec won just two seats each in the National Assembly, while the SRP improved its standing to 26; the CPP holds 90 seats.

Any gains could come at the expense of the SRP, but in Cambodia’s remote villages, which have remained loyal to Hun Sen ever since he ended the years of bloody conflict in 1998, Funcinpec are unlikely to score much success.

As a result, Norodom Ranariddh should expect to remain where he has been for the last four years, in the political wilderness. The SRP will maintain its current standing while for the CPP it will be business as usual once the commune elections are done

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

គណបក្សប្រជាជនយួននៅប្រទេសខ្មែរជាគណបក្សដែលក្រុមយួនហូជីមីញជាអ្នកបង្កើត ដើម្បីបញ្ចូលប្រទេសខ្មែរទៅក្នុងសហពន្ធឥណ្ឌូចិនដែលមានយួនជាចៅហ្វាយ សូមខ្មែរយល់រឿងនេះឧ្យបានច្បាស់គ្រប់ៗគ្នា ។
ដូច្នេះនៅពេលបោះឆ្នោតម្តងៗគណបក្សប្រជាជនយួនវាប្រើមធ្យោបាយឧក្រិដ្ឋគ្រប់បែបយ៉ាងទាំអស់ធ្វើយ៉ាងណាក៏ដោយឧ្យតែបានឈ្នះ ។ តើកូនខ្មែរទាំងអស់បានយល់ដឹងរឿងនេះឬទេ ?
បើយល់ដឹងហើយ ? ហេតុអ្វីបានជាកូនខ្មែរនាំគ្នាសំរុកក្បាលទៅបោះឆ្នោតជាមួយគណបក្សប្រជាជនយួននៅស្រុកខ្មែរដែលមានអាហ៊ុន សែន,អាជា ស៊ីម អាហេង សំរិន យ៉ាងដូច្នេះទៅវិញ ?
សូមកូនខ្មែរឈប់ទៅបោះឆ្នោតប្រឆាំងនឹងគណបក្សប្រជាជនយួននៅស្រុកខ្មែរតទៅទៀតទៅ ? បោះឆ្នោត១០០ឆ្នាំទៀតក៏មិនឈ្នះអាពួកចោរខ្ញុម
យួនទាំបីក្បាលនេះជាដាច់ខាត ។
សូមកូនខ្មែរអ្នកស្នេហាជាតិទាំងអស់ត្រទ្បប់ទៅធ្វើបដិវត្តន៏តស៊ូរអាវុធដោយហឹង្សាទើបអាចធ្វើឧ្យយើងឈ្នះអាចដេញអាយួននឹងបរិវាមានអាហ៊ុន សែន អាជា ស៊ីម អាហេង សំរិន ចេញពីប្រទេស ។
សូមជម្រាបថាបើយើងហ៊ានធ្វើបដិវត្តន៏ដោយអាវុធ
កាំភ្លើងយើងមិនខ្វះជាដាច់ខាត ? កាំភ្លើងដែលទាហាន ប៉ុលីស កងអង្គរក្សរបស់អាហ៊ុន សែន មានសព្វថ្ងៃនេះជាអាវុធរបស់យើងហើយ សូមជឿរជាក់ចុះ ។

Anonymous said...

លោកចអ៊ូ ចល់ លោករិទ្ធី កុមារ លោកកិត្យា់ លោកតា​មឿង លោកក្រាក់ម៉ុ កាំង លោកសែម 
សែម ។ល។នឹង។ល។ ដែលជាស្ថាបនិកចលនាបដិវត្តូន៏ផ្កាឈូកនៅក្នុងប្រទេសបារាំង កុំនៅអល់ឯកតទៅទៀត ។
ពេលវេលាមកដល់ហើយ ! សូមលោកទាំងអស់ជាអ្នកស្នេហាជាតិ អញ្ជើញចុះទៅស្រុកខ្មែរដើម្បីដឹកនាំកូនខ្មែរឧ្យចូលរួមធ្វើបដិវត្ត្នន៏ជាមួយអស់លោកចាប់ពីពេលនេះទៅ​ឧ្យទាន់សភាពការណ៏ ។
សូមអស់លោកពិចារណាឧ្យបានហ្មត់ចត់ដើម្បិប្តូរបដិវត្តន៏ផ្កាឈូកអហឹង្សារបស់អសលោកទៅជាបដិវត្តផ្កាឈូកហឹង្សាតស៊ូរដោយអាវុធទើបអស់លោកអាចយកជ័យជំនះលើពួកយួននឹងបរិវារបស់វាបាន។ សូមអរគុណ ! ។

Anonymous said...

ah Yous Khlay arch Kdor Youn ho dog minh, Ah short life ho chi minh sperms !lighting will strke your head soon !!!

Anonymous said...

your face is fake not look like this ah dog thmill hun sen ,you are thmill former khmer rouge your face look like srey youn pussy ok!

Anonymous said...

Don't believe in elections that conducted by Hun Sen's NEC. Hun Sen has 101 tricks to extort the results.

Ah Chum Kosal said the "next election Samdech Decho could win 120 seats. But Samdech will take only 100 and give to Kem Sokha 10, Sam Rainsy 10and Funcinpec 3". They can get what they want for election result because they have all tools at their disposal.

This is divide and rule.
Khmer old saying: "If we paint the faces of cocks, they would fight to their death".
Hun Sen is doing the same thing in Cambodian politics by painting the faces of Kem Sokha, Sam Rainsy and Ranariddh. they would fight each other until they are exhausted and Hun sen get down from the top of the mountain to fire a final shot.
His tricks are simple but hard to avoid such as:
1. Spread fault info that Kim Sokha is his man, so people hate Kem Sokha
2. Knowing that SRP so trong, he secretely support Kem Sokha to divide opposition vote.
3. He support Nhek Bunchay to kill Ranariddh politically, so Funcinpec nearly collapses,
4. He produces enough proof that Nhek Bunchay got involt in drug production with Chea Chung, so Hun Sen can use Nhek bunchay easily
5. He gives money to former SRP members to work for him and dissiminate news that he has many others like Eng Chay Eang working for him, therefore, SRP seems to distrust each other.
6. Now he knows that both Ranariddh party and funcinpec nearly collapse, he demands them to unite with a promise of some government posts after next election.
7. He needs Funcinpec to be in coalitions again to be look good in the eyes of int'l community, so he gets both diplomatic and financial support from them
8. He now creates a new political environment by making the democrats to hate Ranariddh and Nhek Bunchey more than him and makes Ranariddh to go beyond the road that he could return to unite with Sam Rainsy or Kem Sokha
9. Again he makes SRP hate Kem Sokha, so that they can't sit and talk to unite
10. Ranariddh himself has no way to go because the democrats hates him, so he has no choice but to hug N Bunchey and work as dogs for Hun Sen altogether,

This is the win-win chess game for Hun Sen that he could see 10 moves ahead.

Why we don't cut his winning rythm by not playing his game such as:
1. Spread the news that some SRP defectors actually are working for SRP
2. Play the game that SRP and Kem Sokha has actually united already but pretend to be not to.
3. At least sign a loose alliance of democrats so they could meet and talk, and have some solidary in the eyes of the voters.
4. Need to creates favorable admosphere so that people have confident and trust in the democratic leaders and want to joint.
5. Learn to use the strength of others or your enemys to to fight for u or at least neutralize them.


Usa

Anonymous said...

USA some of your points are good. In PP and other big town where there is a bigger middle-class, people vote more SRP than in the province. People who have access to education, food, health, information can think better and are not easy to manipulate. Some may be working for CPP and campaigning for them to keep their job but in reality their hearts and votes go to SRP. The challenge for SRP is to convince the larger number of people in the countryside. They need to think about a better communication strategy which is not made easy because of lack of access to media controlled by CPP. I am sure there is always a way to find a solution to this problem...

Anonymous said...

តើរដ្ឋាភិបាលស្រុកខ្មែរជារដ្ឋាខ្មែរឬយួន?

Anonymous said...

1:24 AM
រដ្ឋាភិបាលស្រុកខ្មែរ ,ជារដ្ឋាភិបាលយួន 1.000% !

Anonymous said...

Part I

For all Khmer people, please think carefully and do not allow the Vietnamese/Yuon folks and secret agents hiding behind your backyards and every corner to see our weakness. Please watch out those secret and evil Vietnamese secret agents and folks acting like Khmer and hiding among Khmer folks and Khmer society. So, just be aware of those Vietnamese hiding among us Khmer who can speak, read, write and understand Khmer language. So watch out each other and support each other. We as Khmer folks can spy on the Vietnamese folks and agents as well. So, don't be fooled.

That is also really a dirty trick of Vietnamese master-minded killers in Hanoi and the secret roles of Vietnamese officials in higher offices of CPP regime in Cambodia led by the Vietnamese dog Hun Sen.

You should that Vietnam leaders and followers are very clever just like they are playing chess game here. You should think the dirty trick of Vietnam master-minded killers in Hanoi and secret roles of Vietnam officials in CPP offices in Cambodia.

You want to see why? Because the Vietnamese masters know now to fool the people like us Khmer folks that painting the U.S. flag marks on Helmet to fool the gullible villages (NOT you
and us Khmer bloggers here) by seeing deeper about the dirty and ugly tricks of Vietnamese master-minded bastards in Hanoi and in CPP systems.

Vietnamese masters know or knew how to paint the pictures of Pol Pol and Pol Pol's Khmer Rouges inner circles and Khmer Rouges comrades as the scapegoats that killed more that two millions of innocent and well educated Khmer people during the Killing Fields from 1975 to 1979 instead of the secret, dirty and bloody hidden Vietcong/NV agents (real Vietnamese killers or Cadres) who were behind and among the Khmer Rouges soldiers, dressing black and pretending Khmer Rouges soldiers to kill and beat Khmer with sticks to death with blindfolds. Remembers those Vietnamese secret agents could read, write and speak Khmer language very well. Now, they are still in CPP regime so that we (Khmer folks and friends) should have watched out on those evil Vietnamese everywhere and every corner and then we. When it came to the fake rescues to Cambodian/Khmer victims in Cambodia by invading in 1978, Vietnam leaders in Hanoi knew that the UN envoys and inspectors were planing to come to inspect Cambodia during the Killing Fields and then those evil secret Vietnamese agents were told by Vietnamese masters in Hanoi to change the uniforms and some of them fled to Vietnam (like Hun Sen as an example) before they came back as pretenders to help rescue the Khmer victims of the Killing Fields. The evil secret Vietnamese masters and followers as bloody secret Vietnamese agents could get away from the exposures of their dirt deeds and murderous killing of Cambodian/Khmer people in the Killing Fields. Therefore, the UN and International Communities have been fooled and did not see the real Vietnamese killers of the Killing Fields instead of Khmer Rouges of Pol Pot who were so busy fighting against the Vietcong armies in the South border with Vietnam to get the Khmer Krom (Southern Cambodia as South Vietnam) and Cambodian/Khmer islands back. That was why the evil secret Vietnamese agents were behind the killing of millions of innocent Khmer people during the Killing Fields.

Anonymous said...

Part II

Now, you can see that instead of Vietnamese dirty plans to paint the foolish pictures to tell you and gullible Khmer villages or foreigners to believe that only those you guys just mentioned, they can killed and shoot the innocent and unarmed Khmer civilians and villages or Khmer heroes, warriors and activists by borrowing the dirty hands of other sides to kill unarmed civilians to make dirty and clever Vietnamese/Yuon master-minded killers "REAL NICE, SWEET, PEACEFUL VIETNAMESE/YUON FOLKS" instead of their hidden criminal acts. We should know there are not many Khmer people like us think carefully about the dirty trick of Vietnamese master-minded killers hiding among us Khmer citizens and Khmer/Cambodian society in Cambodia today.

Yes, you can only blame Chinese, Russian, Germany who are not deeply involved to swallow the land of Cambodian country, but only the Vietnamese dirty criminal hiding behind in Cambodian backyards and playing the secret roles to fool the Khmer villages and folks who do not know. So, please, you and Khmer folks and villages to be award of the dirty secret and ill-intentions of evil Vietnamese master-minded killers and bosses of CPP regime (led by Vietnamese dog Hun-Sen) for the next generation to come. You and Khmer folks must pay attentions to Vietnamese. We want to remind all Khmer folks and bloggers to watch the dirty games of Vietnamese master-minded criminals hiding behind our backyards and every corners.

Khmer Yeurng

Anonymous said...

It is ashamed to be Cambodian and not knowing how to represent Cambodian interest, but only self interest...