Asia Pacific nations are sailing into troubled waters

This is the first of a two-part series about China's actions in the South China Sea

Aug 5, 2012

Written by Richard Scamehorn

Lancaster Eagle Gazette (Lancaster, Ohio, USA)

During the week of July 9 to 13, the 10-nation Association of South Eastern Asian Nations -- Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- conducted its annual conference in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Vietnam and Laos have their northern borders with China.

Two visitors also attended -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham and an unnamed representative of China.

Some for and some against

At the conference, the Philippines stood out as the most vocal against China's claims and actions in the South China Sea, whereas host Cambodia was the most outspoken against the Philippines and those against China. Cambodia and Laos are bankrolled by China.

Earlier in the week, ASEAN members drafted a set of guidelines for maritime rights and navigation in the South China Sea, even for procedures when governments disagree. This proposal was presented to China at the meeting, with no response.

China can be expected to finally respond with a watered-down version, neutralizing anything to the advantage of ASEAN.

A vital world area

The South China Sea provides shipping lanes for one-third of the world's sea cargo and its ocean floor is thought to contain vast amounts of gas and oil.

China's control of the area would create a serious blow to the world's commercial and military strategies.

China opposes any multi-country negotiation to settle the disputes and insists on one-on-one discussions with each of the area's countries. The Chinese undoubtedly would start with their ally, Cambodia, and then use the concessions gained with them to serve as a template for the other nine countries.

The United States tiptoes in

Clinton, in her presentation to the conference stated, "The United States has no territorial claims (here) and we do not take sides in disputes about territorial or maritime boundaries. But we do have an interest in freedom of navigation, the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law and unimpeded lawful commerce in the South China Sea."

She added that the Asian countries should "work collaboratively and diplomatically to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation, without threats and without the use of force."

Free advice.

Repeated encroachments

China recently staked out nine "nautical lots" where the China National Offshore Oil Corp. plans to open the area to contractors' bidding for drilling rights. This is on the west side of the South China Sea and Vietnam says all nine lie within its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone.

Putting the drilling in the hands of a third-country contractor is a clever move by the Chinese.

If force is used by Vietnam to enforce its claim of ownership, China can wash its hands of the matter by claiming that it was some other country's fault -- not theirs.

Another trick?

The Chinese announced that a frigate -- one of its armed warships -- ran aground, 60 nautical miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan, in an area claimed by Manila. This occurred during the week of the conference while the frigate was patrolling part of the disputed area near the Philippines.

The entire incident might be nothing more than a clever ploy. The Chinese stated a recovery operation was being organized. But this could be a ruse to land hundreds of Chinese marines in a furtherance of their claims. Wait and watch.

After that, the Philippine president announced plans to buy attack helicopter gunships, "to protect what is ours."

On July 12, China announced plans to send a fleet of 30 fishing boats to waters near the Spratly Islands, saying the boats would remain there for 20 days.

A bad week with a bad ending

The ASEAN conference ended July 13 with little agreement on anything and even without its usual last day communiqué.

The conference's failure was a clear setback for the U.S. and our trumpeted "pivot" to Asia Pacific.

Scamehorn is a longtime resident of Lancaster, Ohio University's executive-in-resident emeritus and former president of Diamond Power. He has traveled extensively in the business arena and enjoys history.