Hun Sen’s Retirement and Demise - Op-Ed by Ung Bun Ang

Hun Xen: "I, Me and Myself!" (Photo: The Phnom Penh Post)

30 September 2012
By Ung Bun Ang
Cambodia500

What is going on? It should be nothing in the land of wonder that is blessed with graveyard stability. But there is.

Hun Sen keeps referring recently to his retirement and demise. He instructed in the 28 September cabinet meeting that the temporary suspension of the economic land concessions (ELC) remain in force until his retirement from politics. Three days earlier, he spoke of his demise and subsequent difficulties Cambodia would face.

Hun Sen is right about the impact of his demise. Indeed, under the Westminster parliamentary system, a death of a prime minister is more involved than that of a king. His deputies and ministers will lose their jobs that, according to the appointment system he has been nurturing, must be auctioned to the highest bidders among audacious true-believers. This will cause inconvenience and interruption to the stability and illegitimate wealth accumulation that have become a hallmark of the PM rule. It will be expedient therefore to protect the status quo at all costs, which is the message he wants his Personal Interest Groups to remember.

Still, the Groups would not be too thrilled about missing out on the loots if the temporary ban on the ELC were to last until Hun Sen’s retirement, which could be decades away. One possible option to alleviate the agony of waiting is to hasten the PM retirement. But the PM has already made this option irrelevant. The ban he announces last May still allows him to award concessions that have already been “agreed in principle”, which could be in any number as there is no public list of these in-the-pipeline concessions for all to check. In fact, since May there have been at least 12 concessions covering more than 80,000 hectares that manage to pop out of the pipeline. His beneficiaries could not wipe smiles off their face as they know this loophole well. Thus, waiting for the retirement – no matter how long – is still blessed with fortunes, beneath the seemingly peremptory ban that impresses only the gullible.

Overall, there is no reason to engineer the PM’s early demise or retirement. Thus, it is rather intriguing that Hun Sen talks of his demise and retirement without any apparent provocation. Why is he so anxious about them? Perhaps, he knows something that could put an end to his rule, or it is just an ongoing reminder for his Personal Interest Groups to close rank, or just to feel good about himself.

In effect, Hun Sen could do more to Cambodia long after his prime. Although he has lowered his retirement age from 90 to 80, he still maintains that age does not determine how long he will rule – the ballot box does. Thus, with voters who believe in divine interventions and his Personal Interest Group prosperity, Hun Sen can continue to rule in any circumstances – even with a life support. It will be sort of half of the presumably best ruler; but Cambodia has managed with two mediocre prime ministers, has it not?

Ung Bun Ang

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