Theary C. Seng after the CNRP Press Conference, borrowing CNRP's wifi and room to catch up on work, while waiting for the heavy traffic into the city center to pass (Phnom Penh, 29 July 2013)
Tension from the Political Brinkmanship is REAL
...BUT mass violence is HIGHLY unlikely to result from it.
If I am to put a percentage (if anything like this is quantifiable!), I'd say the tension (creative, on the part of the Cambodian National
Rescue Party) will lead to political negotiation (95%) rather than the
eruption of mass violence (5%, a generous assessment).
On
this Tuesday, one day after the National Election Committee announced
the official election results which basically echoed that of the
Cambodian People's Party, reports of more military build-up, of another
layer of security fence being constructed around the parameter of the
National Assembly, and rumors of fringe paramilitary movement surfacing,
only feed into what the CPP wants the people to feel -- FEAR and its
PREEMPTIVE efforts to prevent any inevitability of mass protests from
erupting.
As
I've stated publicly on countless occasions before and will state more
confidently again -- in spite of the build-up of armed forces in the
capital -- it is the CPP that has EVERYTHING to lose, rather than the
CNRP, and thus, the CPP will make sure that mass protests which could
explode to mass violence, will be more of a last-resort option than the
CNRP, which has publicly, consistently stated that mass protests is a
last-resort option for them.
Let
me be clear: the eruption of mass violence arising out of mass
protests is a real possibility and a real threat. But if the
possibility can be quantifiable, based on risk analysis and in light of
the new social/political environment, it is at most at 5% possibility.
My
intuition is further confirmed this morning by the overt, physical
erection of a 2nd layer of security fencing around the National Assembly
and the posting of 2-3 military police at the corner of major
stoplights in Phnom Penh. IF the CPP is really concerned about the
eruption of violence, it would NOT be the National Assembly that they
would first protect but their personal property -- their business
buildings, their villas.
- Theary C. Seng, Phnom Penh, 13 Aug. 2013
26 comments:
ហេតុអ្វីចូលចិត្តដាក់រូបនេះ?
The events of 1997 are still fresh in my mind :
- Grenade were thrown on protesters
- CPP did purge FUNCINPEC 's activists after military coup - Ranariddh was out of
Cambodia , his Party's activists were trapped , some of them were forced to abandon
their political party , some were killed .
CPP use only intimidation & killing to keep ruling . After his power consolidation , Hun
Sen will order the purge . Will the CNRP be broken to pieces ? will the families of the
party activists be protected ?..
CNRP activist .
ladies and gentlemen, here is the face of nation divider
3:12 PM
your vicious words divide Khmer. Your words revealed what kind of person you are. you are using a one liner and humor to cover the fact that you're a lazy, stupid, uneducated, coward person.
you're wrong, Ms. Seng. My prediction is 50/50. it's a sure bit.
(គ.ជ.ប) គណៈកម្មាធិការជាតិរៀបចំការបោះឆ្នោត ឫ គណៈកម្មាធិការជាតិរៀបចំការបោះឆ្នោត ដើម្បី បក្ស ឫ គណៈកម្មាធិការ ជួយ បក្ស?
លទ្ធផលបណ្ដោះអាសន្នរបស់គ.ជ.បនៅថ្ងៃទី១២ សីហា បង្ហាញថា គណបក្សប្រជាជនកម្ពុជា ទទួលបានសំឡេងគាំទ្រច្រើនជាងគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ។
លទ្ធផលនេះគឺដូចនឹងការប្រកាសរបស់លោក ខៀវ កាញារីទ្ធ អ្នកនាំពាក្យរដ្ឋាភិបាលដែលប្រកាសភ្លាមៗក្រោយការបោះឆ្នោតតែប៉ុន្មានម៉ោងប៉ុណ្ណោះគ្មានការផ្លាស់ប្ដូរ។
ដូចនេះលទ្ធផលបណ្ដោះអាសន្នរបស់គ.ជ.បនៅថ្ងៃទី១២ សីហាមាន អ្វី ប្លែក?។
ហេតុអ្វី គ.ជ.បប្រកាសលទ្ធផលបណ្ដោះអាសន្នរបស់នៅថ្ងៃទី១២ សីហា ដោយប្រញាប់ប្រញាល់ ក្នុងខណះគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិសុំឲ្យបង្កើតគណៈកម្មការបច្ចេកទេសចម្រុះឯករាជ្យដោះស្រាយភាពមិនប្រក្រតីនៃការបោះឆ្នោត? ហើយជាពិសេស ខណៈដែលគណបក្សប្រជាជន និងគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ កំពុងស្ថិតនៅតុចរចានៅឡើយ។
ដើម្បី អ្វី? ព្រោះអ្វី? ខ្លាចលេចចេញការពិតនៃលទ្ធផលការបោះឆ្នោត!?។
ហេតុអ្វី គ.ជ.បប្រកាសលទ្ធផលបណ្ដោះអាសន្ន? ពុំរង់ចាំ ប្រកាសលទ្ធផលចុងក្រោយ ពីគណៈកម្មការបច្ចេកទេសចម្រុះឯករាជ្យដោះស្រាយភាពមិនប្រក្រតីនៃការបោះឆ្នោត? ។
ដូចនេះគ.ជ.ប មិនអាចអះអាងបានថា អព្យាក្រឹត្យ តម្លាភាពនិងយុត្តិធម៌ក្នុងការបោះឆ្នោតឡើយ។
គ.ជ.បប្រកាសលទ្ធផលបណ្ដោះអាសន្នរបស់នៅថ្ងៃទី១២ សីហា អាចបង្កើត
១-ភាពតានតឹង ឫបញ្ឈប់ ការចរចាបង្កើតគណៈកម្មការបច្ចេកទេសចម្រុះឯករាជ្យដោះស្រាយភាពមិនប្រក្រតីនៃការបោះឆ្នោត។
២-ភាពស្របច្បាប់ នៃរដ្ឋាភិបាល ចេញពីការក្លែងបន្លំ ឆ្នោតសង្ស័យ ។
៣-អស្ថិរភាពនៅក្នុងសង្គមលេចឡើង ពីភាពអយុត្តិធម៌ ចំពោះប្រជាពលរដ្ឋជាម្ចាស់ឆ្នោត។
មានតែយុត្តិធម៌ដែលអាចបញ្ឈប់ ការបង្ហូរឈាមខ្មែរនីងខ្មែរ។
មានតែយុត្តិធម៌ដែលខ្មែរអាចរស់ដោយសន្តិភាព ភាពរុងរឿង ចម្រុងចម្រើន ។
អមតះ
Who cares about what this bitch says. Stop posting your fugly photo in your article.
Long Live VietNam and Hun Sen... Hunting Season start now so run while you can CNRP and all the useless khmer...
Soon we will make you a new province to VietNam.
Long Live VietNam and Hun Sen is greatest leaders of All time .. Khmer live today because of VietNam and Hun Sen.. not Dog King Sihanouk and Sihamoni....
That pointing finger say RUN while you can ... hunting season start now
Run king run
mother king run too
they are only good to be DOG.
In You FACE Bitch USA...
You USA raped Cambodia and burned it to hell and you take those few survive to live in your said great USA but they live like slave... you treated them worst then your DOG...
You USA should pay for your crime to Cambodian peoples in Trillions of dollars.
And Now you use CNRP, TEary Seng and Mu Mu Mu bithch hur to do your lip services and trying to take back Cambodia for nothing?
China give Cambodia hope and give Cambodia Billions to rebuilds , but you give Cambodia nothing to to destroyed ... Soon OUr Great Leader Hun Sen will give Cambodia Highway 4 to China to expand is like a slap in your face and to run on your face...
Go back to live in your wonderland in USA theary... with your foreign boyfriend and husband just like your BOSS rainsy daughter marry to a foreigner and like Mu Mu bitch hour ...marry to a american.. you dont thing Cambodia is good for you and you dont even like your own peoples..
4:51 PM You're so right. I agree with you 100%. It's just that your English needs some works. Cheers!
Thank you .. that because I dont live in USA ... I am very sure that many of Khmer peoples living in USA working like hell and never see their family try to make end needs... WHat USA did to Cambodian is evil ... This is the devil in the a SHEEP skin.. EVEn most Cambodia-American come to Cambodia and go to their say USA embassy .. those YANKEE staffs treated them like a DOGs... Look down on them .. but they are American-Cambodia... Oh yeah American Yellow Skin....
and Look at all of these Cambodian women in USA they mostly marry American because they dont like their own peoples and what make these women come back and try to help their country where they dont even like their own peoples and they start to believe this country of free in USA with their newly founded American husband and then come to change Cambodia ... Bitches go back to hell... if you dont even like your own kind and your own peoples dont even try to be the leader of this Cambodia country...
I think the mass protest is more likely to turn into violence than being peaceful one because hun sen will have to infiltrate the mass protest group with hun sen supporters to drive the peaceful protest into a violence so hun sen can order his dogs (police, arm forces, and military police) to beat the hell out of the protesters and cnrp supporters. My prediction is going to be 70% violence.
Helllo Dear,
I really don't think you were 100% corrected about the way we live our life in the US. the Us.had a great systems of democracy and democratic goverment wich mean we all the people have the power to elected every public government leaders from local to the top of executive bran like the president and we all the people have equal right and equal opportunity to do anything interm of the law And most importan is freedom of speak....for your record the Us. Are one of the largest economic in the world that s not counting the most advent military super power on earth Pl.try to do more
research about us.before you start made such a coment. Thanks
All Hun Sen families and friends are thugs! The people have spoken. Majority of the people want the arrogant busatard goes to hell. The idiot is ruinining the country for the future generations. Soon or later, land and resource will dry out for khmer people. He is only thinking of his dynasty. His villas are full of cash he had stolen from the people that he suppose represent.
5:03 PM Ok white American are racist I understand that....but how do you make money in Cambodia? you have magic tree that grow money or something? or waiting for free handout? how much you ear a month again?
5:05 PM do you have statistic of how many Vietnamese marrying French or American? I like to compare your judgement on that.
hell, i would start NGO too if i couldn't find a job; but, i'm CEO of my own business. i don't have time to research and create slanted news, causing chaos for general public. call me whatever u want i don't give a rat ass about it. by the way, your welfare check and foodstamp are in your mailbox...get your lazy ass up and go get it.
come on, jul jet show up yourself mes theary seng, each time people fuck your sorry because of that,
on the other hand, it is your rigth, people should fuck the hell up
come on, jul jet show up yourself mes theary seng, each time people fuck your sorry ass because of that,
on the other hand, it is your rigth, people should fuck the hell up
i'm a LOOTER; when r u going to have a protest so i can gather my gangs?
Biased much Ms. Seng. Would you rather take 5% chance of getting hit by a car? Would you take 5% chance of of contracting HIV?
Miss Theary,
Please try to write your article in KHMER.
Miss Theary,
The reason that I ask you to write in KHMER because I
want to see how you use COMMA and PUNCTUATION in
your article.
Working hard for your money. It is a wonderful things. Thanks the usa for giving me the job opportunity.
that is an oxymoron when you have to be a CEO of yourself! CEOs use their expetise to execute and run large companies, public or private. owning a donut store or a bodyshop does not make one a CEO...
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