ADB sees Asean economies growing 5.2% in ’12 despite crisis

30 March 2012
AFP

PHNOM PENH - Southeast Asian economies are forecast to grow by 5.2 per cent in 2012, the chief of Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Friday, though he urged nations to be “vigilant” in an uncertain global environment.

“Despite a difficult external environment, we still expect Asean growth this year to remain robust at 5.2 per cent, above last year’s rate of 4.6 per cent,” Haruhiko Kuroda told finance ministers of the 10-

member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) during a meeting in the Cambodian capital.

Thailand and the Philippines are likely to show “vibrant growth” after a drop in exports last year, he said, while Singapore, and to a certain extent Malaysia, will see “some slowdown” as they are more affected by external financial turmoil.

Looking ahead to 2013, the Manila-based bank expects Asean Gross Domestic Product to expand above 5.5 per cent on the back of improved domestic demand and exports, as worries about the US and euro zone economies look set to ease.

ADB forecasts 0.6% economic growth in Cambodia

Asian Development Bank upgrades forecast for Asian economy

Tue, 15 Dec 2009
DPA

Manila - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Tuesday it has upgraded its economic growth forecast for developing countries in Asia due to the better-than-expected performance of many economies in the region. The Manila-based ADB said it now expects developing Asia, which covers 45 countries in Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia and the Pacific, to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2009 and 6.6 per cent in 2010.

In September, the ADB predicted the region's economy would grow 3.9 per cent in 2009 and 6.4 per cent in 2010.

"The prospects for much of the region look rosier than they did in September when we last did a full study of the region," ADB chief economist Jong-Wha Lee said.

"Fiscal and monetary stimulus policies and a moderate improvement in the G3 economies of Europe, Japan and the United States helped East Asia and South-East Asia in particular," he added.

ADB said East Asia - comprised of China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Mongolia and Taiwan - was expected to expand by 5.1 per cent this year and 7.3 per cent in 2010.

South-East Asia - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam - was predicted to grow 0.6 per cent in 2009 and 4.5 per cent in 2010, the bank said.

ADB said Central Asia was projected to grow more slowly in 2009 than previously expected largely due to persistent economic weakness in Armenia, but the region should still expand by 3.6 per cent in 2010.

The bank also increased its economic growth forecast for South Asia to 6.4 per cent in 2009 and 2010, with India projected to grow 7.0 per cent this year and next year.

"India faces some challenges - particularly from rising prices that the government and the central bank will have to consider carefully as they assess the policy," Lee said.

The ADB said its growth forecast for the Pacific was unchanged at 2.8 per cent in 2009 and 3.1 per cent in 2010.

Development bank predicts Cambodian economy to shrink this year [-Don't tell this to Hun Xen and Keat Chhon, they won't believe it]

Sep 22, 2009
DPA

Phnom Penh - The Asian Development Bank has revised downward its prediction for Cambodia's gross domestic product this year, saying it now expects the kingdom's economy to shrink 1.5 per cent.

It had previously forecast modest growth for 2009.

In its update released Tuesday, the bank blamed worse-than-expected garment export figures, less construction activity and fewer tourism arrivals. Along with agriculture, these sectors make up the four pillars of Cambodia's economy.

However, the bank said it expected matters would improve next year, albeit at a much lower rate than the double-digit annual growth the country has enjoyed for much of this decade.

'Growth is projected to resume in 2010 at about 3.5 per cent as a gradual recovery in the global economy stimulates clothing exports and tourism,' the bank's Asian Development Outlook 2009 Update said. 'That should provide support for growth in incomes and consumption.'

The bank said the decline in construction was because of falling foreign direct investment in the sector, particularly from South Korea.

South Korean companies have invested heavily in Cambodia's property sector in recent years, helping to propel land prices to record highs and creating a bubble that burst last year.

The bank noted that local inflation had dropped faster than expected and ascribed the trend to lower food and oil prices internationally.

'The inflation rate for 2009 is now forecast at just 0.8 per cent, revised down,' the bank said. 'It is expected to quicken to about 5 per cent in 2010, reflecting higher prices for imported oil and the improvement in domestic demand.'

Tourism numbers were down 3 per cent through April although the bank said it expected arrivals to pick up later in 2009 in line with predictions from Cambodia's Tourism Ministry.

Imports dropped by 18.1 per cent in the first half of 2009 with exports down 10.3 per cent although the bank said the rate of decline in exports could slow.