Cambodia GDP Growth Forecasted at 6.5%

2012-04-11
Xinhua

The Asian Development Bank ( ADB) predicted that Cambodia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 6.5 percent this year, 0.3 percentage point lower than that of 6.8 percent last year, due to the sluggish economic growth in Europe and the United States, according to the Bank's Outlook 2012 Update released on Wednesday.

The ADB forecast is the same as the predictions by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, but lower than the 7 percent forecast by Cambodian government.

The report said that the country's export-led sectors, including garment and footwear will remain the main sources of growth this year, with some new manufacturing industries beginning to emerge, such as automotive parts and assembly of small electric motors.

ADB Revises 2011 Growth Rate Up Two Points

Friday, 16 September 2011
Chun Sakada, VOA Khmer | Phnom Penh

“However, the current slowdown in global trade is likely to temper growth momentum in 2012.”

The Asian Development Bank on Wednesday said Cambodia would likely reach a 6.8 percent economic growth rate for 2011.

The ADB estimate was a bump up from the 6.5 percent forecast earlier this year, but much less than Prime Minister Hun Sen’s figure of 8.7 percent, which he said in a speech this week was possible.

In its “Asian Development Outlook” update, released this week, the ADB said garment exports to the US increased nearly 25 percent for the first half of this year, compared to the same period last year, the ADB said. Garments remain a major driver of the economy.

ADB raises Cambodia's growth forecast to 6.8 per cent

Sep 14, 2011
DPA

Phnom Penh - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Wednesday that Cambodia's economy would grow 6.8 per cent this year, slightly up from its April projection of 6.5 per cent.

The bank's senior country economist Peter Brimble credited the rise to a 23-per-cent jump in the value of garment exports to the United States in the first six months of the year.

He also credited 'tourism increasing by about 13 per cent in arrivals over the first six months, and some good signs on rice exports and in general agricultural production' with contributing to the improved forecast.

'However the current slowdown in global trade is likely to temper growth momentum in 2012.'

Growing Economy at a ‘Crossroads’: ADB

Chun Sakada, VOA Khmer
Phnom Penh Wednesday, 06 April 2011

“We think that Cambodian recovery is firming up, but the country remains heavily dependent on a few sources of driver growth that includes the agri-sector, garment, tourism, construction and real estate.”

The Asian Development Bank said Wednesday Cambodia’s economic growth in coming years will reach up to 6.7 percent, driven by recovery in key sectors following the 2008 economic crisis.

Peter Brimble, a senior economist for the Bank, said growth in 2010 showed Cambodia on a strong footing. But he warned the country is now at a “crossroads,” with economic drivers showing a lot of potential.

“The pressure is now on to intensify efforts at meeting the longstanding challenges of accelerating economic diversification and improving the general investment climate,” Brimble said in a statement.

Poulang Doung, an economist for the Bank, said Wednesday that the country’s growth derived from recovery in clothing exports and tourism that had flagged in 2009, as well as growth in agriculture.

Cambodia's economy to grow 6.5 pct in 2011: ADB

PHNOM PENH, Apr. 6, 2011 (Xinhua) -- Cambodia's gross domestic product (GDP) is set to increase by 6.5 percent this year, up 0.2 percentage points from last year, thanks to agriculture, tourism and garment industries, said the Asian Development Bank's Outlook 2011 released on Wednesday.

The forecast is the same as the prediction by the World Bank and similar to the forecast of the government of Cambodia at between 6-7 percent this year.

"Agriculture is estimated to expand 4.3 percent this year, thanks to continuing investment in irrigation and broader access to fertilizers and high-yield seeds," said the report, "Growth in industry is projected at around 10.8 percent based on positive indications for future garment orders from the United States and Europe."

ADB: Cambodia falling behind competitors

(Photo: AP)

26/04/2010
Ellie Dyer
Bangkok Post

Cambodia is falling behind its competitors in the key garment and tourism sectors, an economist from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned this week.

ADB analysts gathered at group headquarters in Phnom Penh to discuss their Asian Development Outlook Report 2010, which was released during Khmer New Year and predicted 4.5% GDP growth for the kingdom this year.

During the press conference, senior country economist Eric Sidgwick said Cambodia must increase competitiveness in the region as it begins to recover from the global economic crisis in order to move to the "next [economic] level".

ADB estimated the country's GDP shrank by 2% last year.

"Cambodia has had a good start relative to its past performance, but it is still lagging behind its competitors in terms of garments and tourism," he said, noting that the volume of Cambodia's garment exports to the US increased by 12% in February, compared with the same month last year.

"There are still issues in trade facilitation," he warned, and declared that both sectors have shown signs of reaching maturity.

Mr Sidgwick advised that the garment industry needs to become quick, reliable and efficient in order to compete with producers such as Vietnam, and that tourism needs to diversify away from the hub of the Angkor temples.

Economy Undergoing a Rebound: ADB

Cambodian garment workers sew clothes in a factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. (Photo: AP)

The Asian Development Bank said Tuesday it expects an economic rebound for Cambodia in 2010, with growth moving from 4.5 percent this year to 6 percent in 2011.

Ros Sothea, VOA Khmer
Phnom Penh Tuesday, 20 April 2010

“And if there are further improvements in irrigation, seed and fertilizer use, one could hope that agricultural production could be a bit higher this year than last year. So the prospects of the year look good.”

The Asian Development Bank said Tuesday it expects an economic rebound for Cambodia in 2010, with growth moving from 4.5 percent this year to 6 percent in 2011.

The recovery was driven by the country’s main economic pillars: agriculture, construction, garments and tourism, ADB officials said Tuesday, as they released the bank’s economic outlook for the year.

“Garments, tourism and construction have all apparently turned the corner in the first quarter of this year,” Eric Sidgwick, a senior economist at the ADB, told reporters. “And if there are further improvements in irrigation, seed and fertilizer use, one could hope that agricultural production could be a bit higher this year than last year. So the prospects of the year look good.”

Garments were boosted by an increase in US retail market demand in the first quarter of the year, while tourist arrivals for the same period increased, especially with visitors from China and South Korea. The recoveries of the economies in Asia are expected to bolster Cambodia’s construction sector, as more investors return after the global downturn.

Ros Silva, deputy director general of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, said Tuesday the government had forecast the same figures for growth this year and next. The growth follows a recession in 2009, when the economy shrank 2 percent.

But Sidgwick said Tuesday international competition will increase in the next year, requiring the government to focus on the promotion of the private sector, integrated regional and global markets and effective economic policy.

Cambodian economy to grow 4.5 pct in 2010 -ADB

By Prak Chan Thul

PHNOM PENH, April 20 (Reuters) - Cambodia's economy, one of the fastest growing in Southeast Asia for a decade, may grow 4.5 percent this year after contracting 2 percent in 2009 due to the global economic crisis, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.

A pick-up in garment exports and tourism backed that forecast, Eric Sidgwick, the ADB's senior country economist, told a news conference on Tuesday, adding that the economy could grow around 6 percent in 2011.

However, he said Cambodia needed to diversify its economy to achieve sustainable growth in future.

"If you look at garments, the corner has now been turned," he said, noting that retail sales in the United States, a big market for clothes made in Cambodia, had risen 5.5 percent in the first quarter compared with a year before.

Tourism was also recovering and the sector had grown about 10 percent in the first quarter of 2010 compared with last year.

"And the good news there is that the Koreans and Chinese are coming back. They are both up around 30 percent in the first quarter," Sidgwick said.

A drop in visitors from those countries last year was offset to some extent by more arrivals from Laos and Vietnam. "But by and large, visitors from Laos and Vietnam spent less and stayed fewer days than counterparts from Korea and China," he added.

Construction was also recovering, although he did not forecast by how much.

Garment exports, tourism and the construction sector, which together account for over a third of GDP, all shrank last year.

In contrast, agriculture, Cambodia's fourth big growth driver accounting for some 30 percent of GDP, grew by about 4 percent because of favourable rain, and that served as a social safety net for many workers laid off in other sectors.

Diversification should involve both new products and new markets, Sidgwick said.

"If the Asian region is going to pick up, Cambodia needs to be able to take part in that to benefit from that," he said.

"You need to diversify the economic base to new areas so this means new products for export and new markets for exports -- not just the U.S. and EU, but hopefully more in the Asian region, where activities seem to be picking up much more."

(Reporting by Prak Chan Thul; Editing by Alan Raybould)

Cambodian growth projected 4.5 pct this year, 6 pct for 2011: ADB

PHNOM PENH, Apr. 20, 2010 (Xinhua) -- The Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday that Cambodian growth is projected 4.5 percent for 2010 and higher to 6 percent for next year thanks to good crops, increasing services, tourism and constructions.

"If the weather allows for reasonable crops in Cambodia, GDP is projected to rebound by 4.5 percent in 2010," said the Bank release.

"In 2011, a return to higher--though still below trend--growth in garment exports and tourism, together with some expansion of non-garment manufacturing and a pickup in other services sub- sectors, is projected to raise GDP growth to around 6 percent," it said.

Agricultural output is projected to expand by 4.7 percent assisted by efforts to increase irrigation and the greater availability of high-yield seeds, it said.

The Bank also detailed that the growth in services is projected to resume at around 5 percent for this year and construction activity will likely grow at a moderate rate of about 4 percent, as appetite for bank credit gradually recovers and inflows of foreign direct investment, particularly from South Korea, resume for some projects.

Cambodia received 2.2 million tourists last year. The kingdom produced 7.3 million tonnes of rice for 2009/2010 of which the country saw another surplus of rice of 3.1 million tonnes available for export, according to the agriculture ministry.ADB also said that Cambodian growth was almost double digits from 1998 to 2008, but the country's growth was estimated contracted 2 percent in 2009 due to the global downturn in 2008.

The World Bank on April 7 said that Cambodian growth is projected at 4.4 percent for 2010, expects 6 percent for next year.

ADB forecasts economic rebound for Cambodia

Tue, 20 Apr 2010
DPA

Phnom Penh - The Asian Development Bank on Tuesday predicted Cambodia's economy would return to growth this year, following an estimated 2-per-cent contraction in 2009 due to the global economic crisis.

The ADB forecast economic growth of 4.5 per cent this year and 6 per cent in 2011. The economy grew by an annual average of 9.1 per cent from 1998 to 2008.

ADB country economist Eric Sidgwick noted signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2010, with indications of growth returning to the three key economic pillars that were hit: garment manufacturing, construction and tourism.

But he said Cambodia must broaden its economic base and add value in all four key sectors including agriculture, which alone accounts for about one-third of gross domestic product.

He said tourism provided an example of a key industry needing to diversify.

"If you look at the rates of growth of tourist arrivals over the last several years, that rate of growth has been gradually declining - growth is still positive, but [the rate of growth] is declining," Sidgwick said.

"That is an indication that the tourism industry is maturing, in a sense."

To boost that growth rate would require a new wave of investments, to diversify away from its focus on the temples of Angkor Wat and to encourage visitors to stay longer.

"And I think there are good prospects for developing the tourist industry further in Cambodia, but it needs more than just Angkor Wat," he said.

Sidgwick said recovery in the key garment export markets of the United States and the European Union would dictate the extent of local recovery in the sector.

But he said to improve Cambodia's overall economic prospects, the government must ensure that reforms that have been on the table for years are now implemented. Integrating its economy into the region, where strong growth is expected, is also vital.

Sidgwick said the government's doubling of the budget deficit from 3 per cent in 2008 to 5.9 per cent last year was the right response as a short-term measure to the global economic crisis and "probably manageable," but warned it had not all been well-targeted.

"The fiscal stimulus impact of those measures could probably have been greater had the expenditures been targeted more to more productive investments and less on consumption," he said.

The ADB report said Cambodia's poverty rate, measured at 30.1 per cent in 2007, had likely risen due to the global economic crisis, although a lack of coordinated data meant that precise figures were not available.

ADB keeps Cambodia forecast at 1.5pc drop

Wednesday, 16 December 2009
Chun Sophal
The Phnom Penh Post

THE Asian Development Bank on Tuesday lifted its prediction of economic growth for developing Asia in 2009 and 2010, although the lender kept its Cambodia forecast unchanged at negative 1.5 percent for this year, the latest sign the Kingdom is faring worse than many of its neighbours in its bid to recover from the global downturn.

The ADB lifted its 2009 forecast for 45 developing Asian countries to an average 4.5 percent, up from 3.9 percent in September. In 2010, gross domestic product in the region was expected to hit 6.6 percent, a small improvement on the 6.4 percent forecast made in September.

“The prospects for much of the region look rosier than they did in September,” said Jong-Wha Lee, ADB’s chief economist. “Fiscal and monetary stimulus policies and a moderate improvement in the G-3 economies of Europe, Japan and the US helped East Asia and Southeast Asia in particular.”

By contrast, Cambodia was expected to see growth of just 3.5 percent next year.

“Cambodia’s economy was badly hit by a sharper-than-expected decline in garment exports, construction, and tourism,” the report said.

An International Monetary Fund report on December 9 showed that Cambodia had largely failed to benefit from external stimulus spending, as demand for the Kingdom’s garments in the US – the country’s largest export market – declined 23.1 percent in the first eight months compared to an 14.3 percent drop on average across all suppliers.

The government increased spending 28 percent this year on 2008 levels, according to the ADB.

Sacrava's Economic-Political Cartoon: The GDP

Cartoon by Sacrava (on the web at http://sacrava.blogspot.com)

Development bank predicts Cambodian economy to shrink this year [-Don't tell this to Hun Xen and Keat Chhon, they won't believe it]

Sep 22, 2009
DPA

Phnom Penh - The Asian Development Bank has revised downward its prediction for Cambodia's gross domestic product this year, saying it now expects the kingdom's economy to shrink 1.5 per cent.

It had previously forecast modest growth for 2009.

In its update released Tuesday, the bank blamed worse-than-expected garment export figures, less construction activity and fewer tourism arrivals. Along with agriculture, these sectors make up the four pillars of Cambodia's economy.

However, the bank said it expected matters would improve next year, albeit at a much lower rate than the double-digit annual growth the country has enjoyed for much of this decade.

'Growth is projected to resume in 2010 at about 3.5 per cent as a gradual recovery in the global economy stimulates clothing exports and tourism,' the bank's Asian Development Outlook 2009 Update said. 'That should provide support for growth in incomes and consumption.'

The bank said the decline in construction was because of falling foreign direct investment in the sector, particularly from South Korea.

South Korean companies have invested heavily in Cambodia's property sector in recent years, helping to propel land prices to record highs and creating a bubble that burst last year.

The bank noted that local inflation had dropped faster than expected and ascribed the trend to lower food and oil prices internationally.

'The inflation rate for 2009 is now forecast at just 0.8 per cent, revised down,' the bank said. 'It is expected to quicken to about 5 per cent in 2010, reflecting higher prices for imported oil and the improvement in domestic demand.'

Tourism numbers were down 3 per cent through April although the bank said it expected arrivals to pick up later in 2009 in line with predictions from Cambodia's Tourism Ministry.

Imports dropped by 18.1 per cent in the first half of 2009 with exports down 10.3 per cent although the bank said the rate of decline in exports could slow.