By Khmerization
The current military sackings and reshuffles have given rise to rumours that the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) is cracking. Since the sacking of Gen. Ke Kimyan on 22nd January 2009, many political observers have viewed Mr. Hun Sen's action as a political and strategic manoeuvre to boost up his power grip while at the same time weakening the power of his CPP's arch-rival, Mr. Chea Sim.
Mr. Hun Sen, while trying to play down the rumours of the internal rifts within the ruling CPP, has repeatedly denied the rumours, but stated that the sackings and the reshuffles are parts of the military reforms. His denials are not very re-assuring as those sacked and demoted were Mr. Chea Sim's loyalists, while at the same time those who were promoted were Mr. Hun Sen's loyalists. Mr. Hun Sen's manoeuvre has been viewed as resulting from his paranoia and mistrusts of the people around him.
Many observers of the Cambodian affairs have predicted that the CPP, a party that thrived on its traditions of a strict communist discipline, is in a self-destruction due to Mr. Hun Sen's paranoia.
Mr. Colin Pratt, an Australian who was a longtime advisor to ex-king Sihanouk and the Cambodian Resistance in the 1980s, is one such observer who believes that Mr. Hun Sen's demise will come about by his paranoia, not by the actions of the opposition parties.
In an email to Khmerization recently, he opined and I quote:
The current military sackings and reshuffles have given rise to rumours that the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) is cracking. Since the sacking of Gen. Ke Kimyan on 22nd January 2009, many political observers have viewed Mr. Hun Sen's action as a political and strategic manoeuvre to boost up his power grip while at the same time weakening the power of his CPP's arch-rival, Mr. Chea Sim.
Mr. Hun Sen, while trying to play down the rumours of the internal rifts within the ruling CPP, has repeatedly denied the rumours, but stated that the sackings and the reshuffles are parts of the military reforms. His denials are not very re-assuring as those sacked and demoted were Mr. Chea Sim's loyalists, while at the same time those who were promoted were Mr. Hun Sen's loyalists. Mr. Hun Sen's manoeuvre has been viewed as resulting from his paranoia and mistrusts of the people around him.
Many observers of the Cambodian affairs have predicted that the CPP, a party that thrived on its traditions of a strict communist discipline, is in a self-destruction due to Mr. Hun Sen's paranoia.
Mr. Colin Pratt, an Australian who was a longtime advisor to ex-king Sihanouk and the Cambodian Resistance in the 1980s, is one such observer who believes that Mr. Hun Sen's demise will come about by his paranoia, not by the actions of the opposition parties.
In an email to Khmerization recently, he opined and I quote:
The only hope for the demise of Hun sen lies in the collapse of the unity of
the CPP leadership, which Hun sen will probably bring about by his paranoid
will to rule and his "ambition to rule from the grave" (read family). The
opposition parties are a waste of time and will never defeat Hun Sen.
The world depression coming will test the Hun Sen Government
regards,
Colin Pratt
Mr. Pratt's rationale seems to be in line with a consensus belief among keen observers of Cambodian political affairs. Because the CPP leadership is very disciplined and has survived, and even thrived, on many attempts to destroy it, there is a general view that the CPP's demise will only come from within. Only the elements and the internal infighting within the CPP will bring about its own collapse.
Seeing Mr. Hun Sen's recalcitrant and dangerous political manoeuvre, Mr. Pratt's suggestion of Mr. Hun Sen's demise from his paranoia seems surreal and his "ambition to rule from the grave" is prophetically coming.
It remains to be seen if Mr. Pratt's prophecy is proved to be true. Only time will tell.
