Cambodia must wait half a century?

Still waiting for a political change in Cambodia ... because: ex-King Sihanouk said that people wishes him to live more 1,000-year-old, and PM Hun Xen said that he wants to hold onto power until he is at least 90-year-old

31 August 2009
Op-Ed by Sopheak
Originally posted in Khmer at http://sopheak.wordpress.com
Translated from Khmer by Heng Soy
Click here to read the article in Khmer

The Japanese people recently welcome a new prime minister who is issued from the Japanese opposition party which won a landslide election at the beginning of this week. It is a fact that, in Japan, the change of premiership is not a big deal, and for someone to become the prime minister is also not a big deal in Japan. However, what impressed the world was the turning of new chapter in Japan when the opposition party won the election and the premiership position after more than half a century long delay.

Turning back to Cambodia, the situation here is not that much different. In Cambodia, besides the same political party winning the election time after time, the [government] leadership also remains unchanged: always the same man (sic!). Up to now, under four consecutive mandates, the ruling party in Cambodia is still holding its grip on power here. Come to think of it, four mandates is equivalent to a full 20-year of ruling, [and it seems] that this tendency will continue on for several more years to come.

As for the opposition party in Cambodia, questions remain as to whether it has the strength or the ability to replace the current ruling party or not? The path is still very long for Cambodia’s opposition, it could be that it may disappear even before it has the chance to rule (sic!).

This is not normal: it will require another 30 years or 6 legislative mandates to achieve a half-century length! Even though we cannot predict the future, what is foreseeable is that there is no clear sign showing that it would take a shorter period of time for Cambodia’s opposition party to get a grip on power. In fact, in Cambodia, change of leadership or premiership is a strange event (sic!)!

For Cambodia, can we assume that we need to wait for 50 years, or rather that we have to wait, wait, wait, and still waiting?

Note: In Cambodia, one legislative mandate lasts 5 years.

Japan Poised for Historic Political Shift in Predicted Election Landslide

Yukio Hatoyama, left, greets supporters during a Parliament's lower house election campaign in Tokyo, 23 Aug 2009

By Kurt Achin, VOA
Tokyo
28 August 2009

More than half a century of all but uncontested political leadership in Japan appears set to end this weekend, as voters elect new parliamentary representatives. Polls indicate a center-left party is set to topple conservatives who are viewed by many as out of touch with the average Japanese family. The election may recast how Japan views itself and its relations with the international community.

Just days before the election, polls continue to support the widely held belief that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso will experience a crushing defeat in Sunday's vote for the lower house of the country's parliament.

One major late-week poll indicated at least twice as many voters would cast ballots for the Democratic Party of Japan, led by the country's likely next Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama.

At recent rallies, Hatoyama told supporters, the day has come to change the history of Japan. He calls on them to step into the new era with courage.

480 lower house seats are at stake in Sunday's vote. Some political experts have predicted the DPJ may capture as many as 300 of those, giving it a resounding mandate in both the upper and lower house. The LDP has controlled Japan's parliament almost without interruption for 55 years.

Jeffrey Kingston, Director Of Asian Studies at Japan's Temple University, says the DPJ lead does not indicate the party has swept voters off their feet.

"Clearly this is not a vote for the DPJ," he said. "It's a vote against the LDP. People are fed up."

The ruling LDP enraged Japanese voters last year when it announced it had "misplaced" the pension records of millions of aging voters. Kingston says the public also blames the LDP for Japan's economic hardship.

"People have seen the misery index soar out of control over the past ten months," he said. "Unemployment is up, foreclosures and bankruptcies are up, suicides are up-- and wages, bonuses, and job security are down. So there's nothing to like about this scenario."

The DPJ's Hatoyama has promised to overhaul the entire social contract in Japan - promising government financial support for child care and the elderly, while stripping power from the country's entrenched bureaucracy. He has also signalled that he will re-examine Japan's role in the international community.

Taniguchi Tomohiko is a professor at Japan's Meiji University and an advisor to the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo. He says the DPJ is likely to shift Japan's regional focus.

"They [DPJ] are openly arguing that given where Japan is, Japan should cut a good balance between its time-honored alliance with the United States, and its growing importance of having a good relationship with China," said Tomohiko. "By so saying, it is obvious that [the] Democrats are leaning slightly toward China and distancing little from the United States."

Taniguchi says the DPJ has sent some mixed signals about how it will deal with the approximately 50,000 U.S. forces stationed in Japan.

"They're saying that the U.S. military should be reduced, in terms of its footprint, from Japan and the next day they will say no significant change could happen even if we are in office," he said. "So, objectively speaking, many people should be scratching their heads."

A DPJ government is expect to maintain a firm policy line on North Korea - viewed by many Japanese as a direct threat.