Thai govt faces key ruling

PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS

More violence feared if Somchai party is declared illegal

Dec 2, 2008
By Nirmal Ghosh, Thailand Correspondent
Straits Times (Singapore)

BANGKOK - THAILAND is bracing itself for more trouble today as its Constitutional Court begins handing down a ruling that could lead to Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's government being dissolved.

Thai police yesterday asked the military to help step up security in the capital, fearing that pro-government supporters would react violently should the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) be declared illegal for electoral fraud in last year's polls.

Already, anti-government protesters in Bangkok have come under attack in recent days. Pro-government 'red-shirts' are said to be prepared to head for the capital from the provinces in their thousands once the signal is given.

The court verdict could prove a turning point in a country roiled by months of political turmoil.

The conflict pits the yellow-shirted members of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) against Mr Somchai and his government, seen by them as corrupt proxies of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

In their campaign to bring down the government, the PAD's supporters seized the Prime Minister's official compound in Bangkok in August and, last week, took over both Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports.

The airport seizures have stranded over 350,000 travellers in Thailand. Various airlines and governments were scrambling yesterday to deploy more flights to Phuket, Chiang Mai and U-Tapao to get them out.

At the same time, the PAD allowed airlines to fly about 80 empty planes out of Suvarnabhumi airport.

Meanwhile, in a switch of tactics, the PAD yesterday moved most of its supporters at Government House to the airports.

'We are not abandoning the site,' PAD spokesman Suriyasai Katasila insisted. By evening, hundreds were still ensconced in the compound.

As all sides braced themselves for the court decision, senior members of the PPP were said to be urgently considering alternatives should the party be thrown out of power.

Already its members are describing a dissolution of the party as a 'judicial coup'. The judgment could come within days, if not today

One option is for the PPP itself to dissolve Parliament before the judgment is out, and to call an election - which it is sure to win.

In this scenario, its MPs would merely switch to another party, Puea Thai, and fight the election.

Another option is for the PPP to set up a 'government in exile' and create a resistance movement nationwide, should there be a military coup.

The mechanics for this are being worked on right now, but the idea is not new: it was considered but not implemented in September 2006 when the army toppled the Thaksin government.

It is not clear where such a 'government in exile' would be based, but Thaksin is said to be in Cambodia while also working on setting up a base in Dubai.

Mr Somchai, who was asked by reporters yesterday when he would return to Bangkok, remarked that he could run the country from anywhere.

'The place is not an issue as long as I can work and get cooperation from all parties,' he added, insisting that he was not stepping down.

For the moment, Chiang Mai is his base as the northern city is home ground for him - and Thaksin - making it harder for the army to detain him in the event of a coup.

The political upheaval has also disrupted plans for Asean meetings from Dec 13 to Dec 17.

'I will propose at the Cabinet meeting tomorrow to postpone the summit to March as we can't open our airport for leaders' planes to land yet,' Foreign Minister Sompong Amornwiwat said.

Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono proposed his country as an alternative venue.

Indonesia and Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan were offering to hold the meeting of its foreign ministers and East Asian dialogue partners in the Asean Secretariat offices in Jakarta, while the finance ministers could meet in Bali, he said.

nirmal@sph.com.sg
Additional information from Reuters

Anupong caught between a rock and a hard place

A conundrum for the general

Tuesday October 21, 2008
Saritdet Marukatat
Bangkok Post

COMMENTARY

For Army chief General Anupong Paojinda, his main worry is not the border situation between Thailand and Cambodia. It is in fact the political warfare with Prime Minister and Defence Minister Somchai Wongsawat.

Now everybody wants to know what the most influential military officer has in mind, after the government leader turned a deaf ear to the general's remarks made on TV last Thursday. Although Gen Anupong alone spoke, the presence of all military and police leaders sitting side by side with him sent a signal to Mr Somchai that they were not on his side and that the premier should seriously consider what the Army chief was saying.

Gen Anupong's position is not really surprising. He had already made a gesture opposing the bloody crackdown on Oct 7. On that day, when PM Somchai came out for a press conference at the Supreme Command, Gen Anupong was with him. But the general decided not to stand too close to the prime minister. He kept a distance between himself and PM Somchai.

Days later, Gen Anupong called for the government to take responsibility for the police crackdown which had led to the deaths of two demonstrators with over 400 injured.

Now he decided to step up pressure on PM Somchai by making it quite clear to him that a resignation from the premiership was the best and only way to resolve the political crisis between the administration and the People's Alliance for Democracy.

Even before Mr Somchai succeeded Samak Sundaravej as prime minister, relations between the government and the armed forces were already "unusual". Gen Anupong decided to not make any move against the PAD after Mr Samak declared a state of emergency in Bangkok in the hope that soldiers would crack down on the protesters once and for all.

Mr Samak must have been quite upset when the army leader failed to act. With the result that demonstrators are still ensconced at Government House. Instead, it was Mr Samak who had to go, after he was no longer favoured by the People Power party to run the government.

Mr Samak might have been even more furious, given that he'd already given the armed forces a free hand to do what they wanted with the annual armed forces reshuffle list.

Now Mr Somchai might be feeling something similar, too; but he has decided to directly counter-attack Gen Anupong in refusing to step down or dissolve parliament. Do not forget that PM Somchai is the Defence Minister as well, and has the authority to punish the army leader. But he has not done so and instead has simply made clear his position that he wants to stay on.

The prime minister cited three key events he and his cabinet members are obliged to take full responsibility for: the Royal cremation ceremony of Her Royal Highness Princess Galyani Vadhana next month; the events celebrating His Majesty the King's birthday on Dec 5, and the Bangkok summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which Thailand currently chairs.

The bottom line is, PM Somchai will not go as the army leader wishes; neither will he take any action against the general.

Mr Somchai is taking a big gamble on his position. His decision to hold on to power means he is passing the ball back to Gen Anupong's court. But it will be very difficult for the army chief to make further moves.

The army leader is caught between the pro- and anti-government camps. He still has a hangover from the coup two years ago. Gen Anupong and other top brass at the time were criticised for being "too nice" to their opponent, Thaksin Shinawatra, the brother-in-law of this prime minister. If he wishes to stage a coup again, Gen Anupong can expect street challenges from pro-government sympathisers as well as international pressure.

The PAD does not see him as its ally, either. The longer the PAD stays on the streets and at Government House, the uglier will be its attacks on Gen Anupong for ignoring its calls to have his soldiers and tanks bring down a government they claim is Mr Thaksin's proxy.

For Gen Anupong, finding a way to end the political battle with PM Somchai is not easy, indeed.

Saritdet Marukatat is News Editor, Bangkok Post.

Outlook uncertain as Thai army commanders call Hun Sen's bluff

Monday, 20 October 2008
Written by Sebastian Strangio and Sam Rith
The Phnom Penh Post

Analysts say that domestic turmoil will adversely affect the bargaining position of the new Thai PM, but urge the Cambodian govt to make a more measured response to the crisis

EVEN opponents of the government agree that Prime Minister Hun Sen had a right to take a firm stand against Thai border incursions near Preah Vihear temple. But with troops from both sides now digging in after last week's fighting, political analysts are divided on how his tough rhetoric will impact the resolution of the three-month-old military stand-off.

After Wednesday's border clashes, in which three Cambodian soldiers were killed and nearly a dozen Thais wounded, Hun Sen downplayed the threat of war, saying that the situation along the border was "under control".

"Cambodia is poor and will not show its muscles," he told reporters after a cabinet meeting Friday. "There will be no big war because the two countries are still patient."

His comments came on the heels of his October 13 ultimatum to Thailand that it should withdraw its forces from Cambodian territory at Veal Antri, warning of a "full-scale conflict" if Bangkok did not comply.

Although local politicians agreed the Cambodian government holds the moral high ground on the border dispute, some questioned the wisdom of bluffing beleaguered Thai politicians with threats of open war.

"[The bluff] was a response to the continuing violations of the Thais. The Thais have been playing games with him, and I think he lost patience," said Sam Rainsy Party spokesman Son Chhay, adding that the government should welcome the mediation of the international community.

"I think [the threat] was a mistake. We advised him to deal with it through international organisations, to approach the UN or the co-chairs of the Paris Peace Agreements," he said.

There will be no big war because the two countries are still patient.

With officials from both sides due to meet in Siem Reap for another round of talks Friday, independent analyst Chea Vannath said Hun Sen's comments might have been misjudged, but did not think it would impact the "very slow process" of the border negotiations.

"[Hun Sen] was trying to project the image that he is serious about protecting our territory," she said.

"It's not a big issue. It's more an issue of pride."

Koy Kuong, undersecretary of state at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, endorsed the remarks made by the prime minister Friday, but would not comment on last week's ultimatum in light of the bloodshed on the border.

"A peaceful solution is the best solution," he said. "Cambodia has experience with war and found that it doesn't offer any benefit besides destroying assets and people's lives."

Thai upheavals

However, some analysts are pessimistic that negotiations will do anything to resolve the conflict until a resolution of the political crisis within Thailand.

"Talking doesn't mean anything or affect anything," said Thun Saray, president of the Cambodian rights group Adhoc. "In Thailand, the current government is very weak, especially on the problem of the Thai-Cambodian border. If they agree with the Cambodian government on something, the political opposition takes the opportunity to accuse them of being traitors."

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst based at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Thailand's domestic crisis, which has seen the opposition People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) keep up street protests in an attempt to force the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, had hampered the temple negotiations.

"The turmoil and confrontation in Bangkok is going to adversely affect Prime Minister Somchai's negotiating and bargaining position because he is being hounded and undermined," he said.

"He is essentially being overthrown by the PAD... and the PAD has used the [Preah Vihear] issue to accuse the Somchai government...of selling out."

Given the situation in Bangkok, Thun Saray said the likelihood of holding effective talks was low and questioned the control of Thailand's civilian leadership over the Thai troops at the border.

"Normally, when two parties are in conflict, they agree to talk. The Thais said they wanted a peaceful solution, but at the same time they moved their troops further into Cambodian territory," he said.

In this context, heated rhetoric from the Cambodian side could be like a red flag to a bull. "In Cambodia, the government can prevent violence like the anti-Thai violence of 2003, but in Thailand I don't know," he said. "If the opposition politicians took power now and tried to push more troops into Cambodia, it could escalate."

However, Chea Vannath said her main fear was the scores of heavily-armed soldiers biding their time in foxholes at the border. "I am pleased at what the Cambodian government is trying to do," she said.

"My concern is that you have two armed forces facing each other. It's so easy for something to happen."

Thai activists trying to provoke coup: Analyst

Oct. 15, 2008
ABC Radio Australia

Turmoil has been continuing in the Thai capital, but this week the People's Alliance for Democracy has called off protests.

They are speculating that the Prime Minister's royal audience yesterday signals the dissolution of Parliament but the Prime Minister is not saying anything.

Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Andrew Walker, Dr Andrew Walker, who's with Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University in Canberra

WALKER: Well, it's very hard to tell what the King said to the prime minister behind closed doors is anyone's guess.

I think we need to remember the king is an old man, his health is fragile and there's a real possibility that he's not completely engaged with contemporary political developments. So I think it's very hard to speculate what that particular meeting may have meant.

LAM: But what do you make of Queen Sirikit's attendance at the funeral of one of the protesters who died last week?

WALKER: Exactly. I think what's much more important is what's happening out in public. What we've seen this week is the Royal Family explicitly come out and support the anti-government protest movement. The Queen and the King's daughter attended and they sponsored the funeral of one of the protesters who was killed in the violence last week. And by attending the funeral, the Queen pretty much has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the leaders of the opposition movement and that's an opposition movement that is quite openly attempting to bring about a coup against an elected government.

LAM: And yet, there are some who say that the PAD should respect the people's electoral choice and to stop the demonstrations. Is this a widespread sentiment?

WALKER: Well, I think it's a widespread sentiment internationally, and I'm sure in many parts of Thailand this is a sentiment. But it's not a sentiment that is being picked up much by the Thai press and it's certainly not a view that the PAD respects. They have an elitist and non-representative political agenda. They are not interested in trying to win over the hearts and minds of the electorate through a normal political campaign. What they are interested in is trying to provoke violence on the streets of Bangkok, in an attempt to precipitate a coup.

LAM: And why do you think the Royal Family is turning out in public like that in support of certainly the family of the demonstrators who died?

WALKER: Well, for a long time, the opposition movement has used royal symbolism as the basis for their campaign and the King has made no attempt to withdraw his brand endorsement from this opposition campaign against an elected government.

Now perhaps the King is not really in a position now to closely monitor or control events and perhaps to a certain extent, the Queen is acting to a degree independently, but she certainly made no bones about it. She has signalled her support for the opposition movement.

LAM: Well, the whole affair has certainly shown up deep divisions within Thai society, certainly in Bangkok. Do you think dissolving parliament and calling for fresh elections might be a solution?

WALKER: Well, it's hard to see why fresh elections would be a solution, because there's a strong possibility that fresh elections, given the polarisation that's occurred would return a government of a similar complexion. The opposition movement has made it quite clear that they don't respect election results, so it's hard to see why a fresh election would necessarily resolve the situation.

LAM: Well, just very briefly Dr Walker, Prime Minister, Somchai, seems to have other troubles to contend with, including reports that Thailand is building up troops on the border, near the disputed Preah Vihear temple. If the reports are true, what do you make of the move?

WALKER: Well, it's a disturbing situation and there's been some strong and aggressive words from the Cambodian prime minister in very recent days and the Thai prime minister is responding to that. Perhaps a crisis like this might give him a little bit of breathing space from his domestic troubles, but we need to remember that the origins of this dispute lie with the Thai opposition movement, who have whipped up this dispute between Thailand and Cambodia in an attempt to increase the pressure on the Thai government.