July 11, 2008
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation
For Thaksin Shinawatra, the danger is clear and present. One by one, all of his top lieutenants have been cut down.
One more step, and the sword will fall on him. Former election commissioners Vasana Puemlarp, Prinya Nakchadtree and Virachai Naewboonnien have been sentenced to jail without probation by the Appeals Court, which stands by the verdict of the lower court. They were found guilty of violating the election law to facilitate the Thai Rak Thai Party winning the April 4, 2006 general election. After the three election commissioners were sentenced to jail by the lower Criminal Court (prior to the September 2006 military coup), Thaksin lamented, "We do not have any influence in the Court".
This is a ringing truth. In spite of his massive wealth and political influence, Thaksin cannot encroach into the judicial system, which is now holding him in check.
Three of his lawyers - Pichit Chuenban, Suphasri Sriswat and Thana Tansiri - have been sentenced to jail for six months for contempt of court in connection with their alleged attempt to bribe Supreme Court officials with Bt2 million stacked in a snack bag. They represented Thaksin and his wife Pojaman as legal counsel in the Ratchadaphisek land deal. The police are now investigating whether a criminal case can be lodged against the three defendants and others. Thana handed the snack bag containing Bt2 million to a Supreme Court official just before Thaksin and Pojaman arrived on the premises to report to authorities after returning from a trip abroad.
Jakrapob Penkair, the former PM's Office minister, was another fall guy. He was one of Thaksin's top political commandos. He was rewarded for his loyalty to Thaksin with the Cabinet portfolio. But in the end, he had to pay the bigger price. Jakrapob is now facing lese majeste charges. His political future is buried.
Yongyuth Tiyapairat, another militant in the Thaksin camp, also got a big reward, the House Speaker position, for his election campaign role in the North. But his triumph was short-lived. The Election Commission gave him a red card for alleged election fraud. He had to resign from his position. On Tuesday, the Constitution Court upheld the EC's decision to red card him. Yongyuth has not only lost his status as MP, but he is also barred from politics for five years. The People Power Party could be dissolved if it is linked to Yongyuth's election fraud.
The latest casualty is Noppadon Pattama, the foreign minister and former lawyer and spokesman for Thaksin. Yesterday, he resigned from office under tremendous political pressure. He mishandled the Preah Vihear affair, which could have compromised Thailand's sovereignty. The Constitution Court found that the communiqu้ he signed with Cambodia and that was later approved by the Samak Cabinet was in violation of the Constitution.
Although Noppadon has resigned, atonement for his sins does not end there. The Democrat Party will still go ahead and launch impeachment proceedings against him and Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej. The Senate is taking steps to impeach the entire Samak government.
Thaksin's Ratchadaphisek land case is already on trial. The final verdict by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office will be handed down some time in September of this year. If the court finds him guilty, Thaksin will have to go to jail.
How can Thaksin escape this end game? If the judicial review proceeds at this tempo, Thaksin will be dead meat in the next two-to-three months. Samak will buy time by reshuffling the Cabinet in a big way and hang on until the government can reshuffle the civil servants and the military in September before dissolving Parliament as the last resort. But like Thaksin, Samak is facing a bag of court cases against him. The Samak Cabinet can go at any moment.
The only way that this strong tide against Thaksin could be reversed would be for a coup to be launched in his favour. But a coup is almost impossible to stage at this point due to deep divisions in the military. Or Thaksin can choose to leave the country before the Supreme Court delivers its verdict on the Ratchadaphisek land deal.
But Thaksin has been trapped. The Supreme Court has denied his request to travel abroad since the trial is now underway. September is a long way off for Thaksin, who must come up with a counterattack strategy to prevail. At the moment, Thaksin is hanging on by a thread.
One more step, and the sword will fall on him. Former election commissioners Vasana Puemlarp, Prinya Nakchadtree and Virachai Naewboonnien have been sentenced to jail without probation by the Appeals Court, which stands by the verdict of the lower court. They were found guilty of violating the election law to facilitate the Thai Rak Thai Party winning the April 4, 2006 general election. After the three election commissioners were sentenced to jail by the lower Criminal Court (prior to the September 2006 military coup), Thaksin lamented, "We do not have any influence in the Court".
This is a ringing truth. In spite of his massive wealth and political influence, Thaksin cannot encroach into the judicial system, which is now holding him in check.
Three of his lawyers - Pichit Chuenban, Suphasri Sriswat and Thana Tansiri - have been sentenced to jail for six months for contempt of court in connection with their alleged attempt to bribe Supreme Court officials with Bt2 million stacked in a snack bag. They represented Thaksin and his wife Pojaman as legal counsel in the Ratchadaphisek land deal. The police are now investigating whether a criminal case can be lodged against the three defendants and others. Thana handed the snack bag containing Bt2 million to a Supreme Court official just before Thaksin and Pojaman arrived on the premises to report to authorities after returning from a trip abroad.
Jakrapob Penkair, the former PM's Office minister, was another fall guy. He was one of Thaksin's top political commandos. He was rewarded for his loyalty to Thaksin with the Cabinet portfolio. But in the end, he had to pay the bigger price. Jakrapob is now facing lese majeste charges. His political future is buried.
Yongyuth Tiyapairat, another militant in the Thaksin camp, also got a big reward, the House Speaker position, for his election campaign role in the North. But his triumph was short-lived. The Election Commission gave him a red card for alleged election fraud. He had to resign from his position. On Tuesday, the Constitution Court upheld the EC's decision to red card him. Yongyuth has not only lost his status as MP, but he is also barred from politics for five years. The People Power Party could be dissolved if it is linked to Yongyuth's election fraud.
The latest casualty is Noppadon Pattama, the foreign minister and former lawyer and spokesman for Thaksin. Yesterday, he resigned from office under tremendous political pressure. He mishandled the Preah Vihear affair, which could have compromised Thailand's sovereignty. The Constitution Court found that the communiqu้ he signed with Cambodia and that was later approved by the Samak Cabinet was in violation of the Constitution.
Although Noppadon has resigned, atonement for his sins does not end there. The Democrat Party will still go ahead and launch impeachment proceedings against him and Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej. The Senate is taking steps to impeach the entire Samak government.
Thaksin's Ratchadaphisek land case is already on trial. The final verdict by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office will be handed down some time in September of this year. If the court finds him guilty, Thaksin will have to go to jail.
How can Thaksin escape this end game? If the judicial review proceeds at this tempo, Thaksin will be dead meat in the next two-to-three months. Samak will buy time by reshuffling the Cabinet in a big way and hang on until the government can reshuffle the civil servants and the military in September before dissolving Parliament as the last resort. But like Thaksin, Samak is facing a bag of court cases against him. The Samak Cabinet can go at any moment.
The only way that this strong tide against Thaksin could be reversed would be for a coup to be launched in his favour. But a coup is almost impossible to stage at this point due to deep divisions in the military. Or Thaksin can choose to leave the country before the Supreme Court delivers its verdict on the Ratchadaphisek land deal.
But Thaksin has been trapped. The Supreme Court has denied his request to travel abroad since the trial is now underway. September is a long way off for Thaksin, who must come up with a counterattack strategy to prevail. At the moment, Thaksin is hanging on by a thread.
