Thailand’s ex-PM Thaksin predicts guerrilla war

Wed May 19 2010
Nopporn Wong-Anan
Reuters

BANGKOK—Exiled former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Wednesday that a military crackdown on protesters backing him could spawn mass discontent and lead to guerrilla warfare.

Thaksin, ousted in a bloodless 2006 military coup, is denounced by adversaries as Thailand’s most corrupt politician. To his anti-government supporters, who set Bangkok ablaze on Wednesday, he is a saviour.

Speaking from an undisclosed location, Thaksin said the deadly crackdown on “Red Shirt” protesters could degenerate into widespread violence.

“There is a theory saying a military crackdown can spread resentment and these resentful people will become guerrillas,” Thaksin said in an interview as troops fought protesters in Bangkok, sparking violence in outer provinces.

“There are lots and lots of people across the country who are upset because they were prevented from joining the Bangkok rally.”

His critics say Thaksin is a crony capitalist who plundered the economy and perverted democracy for the benefit of his family and friends while in power from 2001 until the 2006 coup.

But to many rural voters, he was the first leader to consider the needs of millions living beyond Bangkok’s bright lights.

Thaksin, who scored two landslide poll wins, has been living abroad in self-exile since being removed.

But a two-month campaign by his supporters to oust the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, hoping to gain Thaksin a political amnesty and justice, culminated on Wednesday in the country’s worst political violence in 18 years.

Rioting and fires swept Bangkok after troops stormed the protesters’ encampment, forcing their leaders to surrender.

Protesters set ablaze at least 27 buildings, including the Thai stock exchange and Central World, Southeast Asia’s second-biggest department store complex.

A night curfew was declared in Bangkok and 21 provinces.

Thaksin, 60, has hovered over Thai politics since fleeing the country in 2008, accused of undermining the powerful monarchy and breaching conflict-of-interest laws. He was sentenced in absentia to two years in prison.

Government officials say the multimillionaire former telecommunications tycoon was funding the protests to the tune of about $1.5 million a day. Both Red Shirt leaders and Thaksin deny he funded the anti-government movement.

In his comments, Thaksin rejected any notion he was the stumbling block in failed talks between the government and protesters.

“I only gave them advice that they should make a collective decision as a group, not letting any individual leaders to make a decision by their own . . . I never discussed about my personal interests with them,” Thaksin said.

Thaksin, a former police officer, is accused by critics of abusing his electoral mandate to systematically dismantle constitutional checks and balances while consolidating his own rule.

In 2005, he looked unassailable with a record majority in parliament based on the platform of cheap health care and handouts for rural voters that swept him to power four years earlier.

He formed the first elected government to serve a full term, after which it was re-elected. He was also the first leader in Thai history to form a one-party government.

But corruption scandals and alleged abuses of power eroded his popularity among Bangkok’s middle classes. Simmering anger exploded in 2006 when his relatives sold off, tax-free, their $1.9 billion stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms empire he founded, to a Singapore state company.

Thaksin responded by calling an election three years early, which he duly won.

Born into a family of ethnic Chinese silk merchants in 1949 in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Thaksin became a police officer in 1973 before gaining a masters degree in criminal justice at Eastern Kentucky University.

He is still popular among rank-and-file policemen, accused by government backers of doing too little to stop the protests.

In 1987, he established a computer dealership with his wife that started selling hardware to the police. The company evolved into Shin Corp, a telecoms conglomerate with interests ranging from mobile phones to satellites, the Internet and the media.

But a corruption probe dogged him in power until he convinced investigators he made an “honest mistake” in failing to declare millions of dollars of shares transferred to his domestic staff.

A 2003 war on drugs in which 2,500 people were killed boosted his image as a crime-buster, but sparked outrage from rights groups, who said he was riding roughshod over civil liberties.

In February, Thailand’s top court seized $1.4 billion of his assets, saying it was acquired through abuse of power.

SE Asia Worries Thailand's Unrest Could Spread

Pro-government demonstrators carry Thai national flags and Thai King's portrait during a rally at Victory Monument in Bangkok, Thailand, 26 Apr 2010 (Photo: AP)

Brian Padden, VOA
Jakarta 27 April 2010

Thailand's neighbors are watching the political unrest in Bangkok with growing concern. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has said the protests there could spread economic and political instability throughout the region.

ASEAN has called on the Thai government and the anti-government demonstrators to exercise restraint and to seek a settlement through dialogue and reconciliation. The foreign ministers of Singapore and Indonesia have made similar statements.

Since March, 26 people have been killed and almost 1,000 injured in bomb blasts and confrontations between police and anti-government protesters in Bangkok known as red shirts. The red shirts, made up mostly of rural and urban poor, demand new elections. The demonstrations have disrupted businesses and tourism in the country.

Protests Could Affect Investments

Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah says he is concerned that instability in Thailand could lead to a repeat of the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Then, the collapse of the Thai baht hurt investor confidence in the region.

"Well its rather too early to assess what would be the direct impact of the development in Thailand on the economy, but we did hope actually that it would not create similar situations [like] in the '90's when the contagion effect of the economic meltdown was felt in our region," said Faizasyah. "But hopefully this is a very isolated case but we are also very hopeful that with our efforts together then we can resolve the situation in a peaceful way."

Michael Montesano with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs says right now most foreign investors see the crisis as specific to Thailand only. But, he says, as the protests continue investment in the region could be affected.

"The only effect that we need to be afraid of is those people on the outside of the region who see the region as a whole, and who have their antenna up to instability and political crisis in Southeast Asia, and who, when they see crisis in one country become skittish about how to deal with investment and the economy and other activities in the region as a whole," said Montesano.

Neighbors Offer Assistance

Thailand's political divisions have built steadily over the past several years, since a military coup ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006.

Although Thailand's urban middle class and elite consider him corrupt, he remains very popular among farmers and the poor, because of his anti-poverty programs. His supporters consider the current government to be illegitimate because it came to power in a parliamentary deal after courts ousted two pro-Thaksin elected governments in 2008.

Singapore and Indonesia have offered help to resolve the crisis in Thailand but Faizasyah says it would only be useful if both sides request it.

"We are not interfering in our neighboring issues actually," said Faizasyah. "It must be very clear if there is anyway we can assist in the dialogue, at the request of the government or other parties in this situation then certainly we will be, we are there to provide any assistance available at our disposal."

Montesano says ASEAN's tradition of non-interference in members' affairs and the Thai government's unwillingness to ask for help, will stifle any regional mediation effort. What Thailand's neighbors can do to prevent similar protest movements from spreading, he says, is to address the concerns of the poor and disenfranchised in their own countries.

"I think that other countries in the region would do well to look at the deep roots of Thailand's crisis, and to ask themselves whether their economies and their societies aren't also subject to similar crises," said Montesano.

Apart from that, he says, Thailand's neighbors and the rest of the world can only watch to see how the crisis plays out.

Thai troubles a thorn in Asean’s side

Tuesday April 27, 2010
Comment by MERGAWATI ZULFAKAR
The Star (Malaysia)

LAST Friday, Singapore and Indo­nesia publicly expressed their deep concern over the escalating standoff and grenade blasts in Bangkok that saw scores of casualties.

Both countries asked fellow Asean member Thailand to sit down and resolve the political crisis that has been plaguing the country for more than a year.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa went a step further by saying that Jakarta was ready to render any assistance to promote conditions for dialogue or negotiation.

This is not the first time members of the 10-member grouping have expressed their concern over the situation in Thailand.

It was only last year that Asean leaders were “rescued” from their summit meeting in Pattaya when their Thai hosts failed to stop the fury of anti-government protests.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak in March expressed hope that political stability would return to Thailand. Malaysia is just next door to Thailand, and if the situation gets worse, one can only imagine the consequences.

Asean is now in a new era after the adoption of the Asean Charter – turning the group into a more rules-based organisation after 40 years in existence.

But the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states is included in the charter.

This, however, has not stopped Asean members from criticising Myanmar over its recalcitrant ways and there seems to be an emerging trend among members to comment on the state of affairs of a member country.

As the Singapore Foreign Ministry said, it hoped that all Thais, irrespective of their political views, would set aside their differences in the overall interest of Thailand, eschew violence, and seek a peaceful, amicable and durable resolution.

“This is crucial not just for Thailand, but for Asean as a whole,” a Singapore Foreign Ministry statement added.

But in expressing their deep concern, are Asean members, especially Singapore and Indonesia, telling Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to step down since he is seen as being unable to suppress the protests that has led to loss of lives?

A diplomat noted that one year was lost for Asean during Thailand’s turn to hold the Asean chair last year due to the internal crisis.

“The turmoil in Thailand has been going on for too long that Asean members cannot help but to say something,” said an Asean observer.

Bangkok, in trying to convince its Asean neighbours that it is business as usual, last week dispatched Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij to Johor Baru for the opening of Bangkok Bank’s latest branch in Malaysia.

Downplaying investor concerns over the political turmoil back home, he said the baht remained strong and there were no significant capital outflows.

Like diplomats, businessmen are also eager to see the situation return to normal as soon as possible.

Travel advisories by foreign governments warning their citizens against travelling to Bangkok have already hit the city’s vital hotel and tourism industry and foreign airlines hard.

With Asean Economic Ministers travelling to Washington and Seattle next week and Asean Finance Ministers planning a major investment roadshow in Kuala Lumpur in November to drum up US and foreign funds interest in Asean stock markets, the continuing Thai crisis is likely to do more harm than good to Asean as an investment destination.

A Malaysian official said the Thai Commerce Minister Porntive Nakasai is joining Asean counterparts, adding “let her reply to queries on the situation in her country.”

But there are those who see the statements by Singapore and Indo­nesia as the “height of interference”.

“Would Singapore appreciate criticism of its internal issues from other Asean members if it were in Thai­land’s shoes? Unlikely,” said a diplomat.

As for Indonesia, it wants to be seen as an international player, especially with its membership in the exclusive G-20, rubbing shoulders with developed nations like the United States, Japan and Germany.

Whether other Asean countries like it or not, Indonesia will eventually literally grow as a big brother in the group.

Thailand has been vocal about relaxing Asean’s strict practice of non-intervention, especially regarding Myanmar.

Now the tables have been turned and Bangkok is on the defensive.

There is a fundamental reason why Asean has stuck to its norms – there is aspiration to change, but there is also pragmatism.

Actions, so far, show that Asean is not ready for change.

Al Jazeera's "101 East" - Thai red shirts

Thailand postpones ASEAN Summit to late October

May 13, 2009

BANGKOK (Xinhua) - Thailand decided today to postpone the ASEAN Summit from earlier planned mid-June to late October, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya told reporters.

The Thai Foreign Minister's statement was made to reporters after he participated in the weekly cabinet meeting.

The delay was made after it is discovered the ASEAN and dialogue partner countries' leaders will not have the same time to participate in the ASEAN Summit and Related Summits earlier planned mid-June, clarified Kasit.

Kasit also said that the postponement was not due to chaos, which was made by the Thai anti-government protesters during the ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in beach resort Pattaya in April.

The 10th ASEAN Summit, Plus Three, and Six Summit, and Related Summits were initially scheduled to be held on April 10-12 in a hotel in resort town of Pattaya, next to Bangkok, but on April 11 the Thai government announced the postponement of it after the red-shirted or anti-government protesters stormed into the venue.

This year Thailand is the rotating chairman of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN, which consists of Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The other concerned countries include China, Japan, South Korea, India Australia, and New Zealand.

Thailand's government had previously proposed to the other ASEAN leaders and dialogue partner leaders to host the Summits during June 13-14 in Thailand's southern province of Phuket.