After deadly clashes, Thai opposition regroups

Thu Aug 5, 2010
By Ambika Ahuja

SI SA KET Thailand (Reuters) - On a stage in a muddy soccer field in Thailand's rural heartlands, an opposition leader declared to thousands he would bring back toppled premier Thaksin Shinawatra from exile if his party is voted back into power.

That vow by Puea Thai Party's Chalerm Ubumrung signals trouble ahead in a polarizing political crisis that turned deadly on the streets of Bangkok in April and May as thousands of "red shirt" supporters of the deposed Thaksin clashed with troops.

Hundreds of red shirts have been detained under emergency rule since the unrest that killed 91 people, mostly protesters, and wounded nearly 2,000. Several opposition websites, radio stations and a TV broadcaster were shut. Red-shirt bank accounts have been frozen. Protest leaders face terrorism charges.

Emergency rule has helped to restore order in Bangkok and many areas. But in the rice-growing farmlands of Si Sa Ket bordering Cambodia and other provinces where the decree has been lifted, Thailand's political opposition is regrouping.

The fiery rhetoric at the recent campaign stop in Si Sa Ket, 600 km (370 miles) northeast of Bangkok, illustrates how issues that exploded into violence in May remain at the heart of Thailand's anti-government movement -- from charges of class warfare to reverence of populist multimillionaire Thaksin.

They also demonstrate how the anti-government movement is shifting from street-protest tactics to election campaigning, while retaining, at least in the heartlands, one of their most controversial goals: the return of the twice-elected Thaksin.

"If you want everyone to be treated the same way under the eye of the law, vote Puea Thai! If you want to see democracy and equality, vote Puea Thai! If you want Thaksin back, vote Puea Thai!," Chalerm told cheering supporters.

CONTENTIOUS ELECTIONS

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has said elections could be held early next year if the political situation is stable. His Democrat Party hopes heavy government spending and economic stimulus packages will lift its popularity.

"If we win back power through yet another election, what are they going to do? What trick do they have in the hat this time?" Chalerm told Reuters on the sideline of the campaign.

He was referring to a coup that ousted twice-elected Thaksin in 2006 and several court rulings which toppled two prime ministers and disbanded two parties allied with him, paving the way for Abhisit's rise in 2008 with tacit military backing.

Puea Thai said it is confident it could win back at least 255 in the 480-seat lower house, enough to form a single-party government. But analysts say the election is likely to be contentious and winning a landslide would be difficult.

"While people's voting pattern won't change, horse-trading of parliamentarians will be key in determining who forms the government," said Karn Yuenyong, an analyst at the independent Siam Intelligence Unit..

A 32-seat Bhumjai Thai Party, allied with the government, is poised to win 50-60 seats in the next poll after defections from several parties. It campaigns on a royalist platform, accusing Thaksin of harboring a republican agenda, a taboo in Thailand.

But convincing the rural voters to reject Thaksin's allies won't be easy.

Puea Thai is campaigning on Thaksin's populist platforms such cheap loans and universal healthcare. The ruling Democrats have adopted similar measures but the opposition can win by tapping public discontent about the status quo in the power structure.

That sums up their main selling point: the rehabilitation of the controversial and divisive Thaksin and the promise to end what the red shirt protesters view as "double standards" in law enforcement and the dominance of the ruling elite in politics.

"I will vote for them no matter what, because they will bring back Thaksin," said Metha Panchaisi, a 55-year-old rice farmer, who attended the rally.

"I want to see how they will discard our votes this time. Another coup? Another court ruling? What now?."

(Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat; Editing by Jason Szep)

Ministers scold Thai officials

Wednesday, 23 June 2010
Cheang Sokha
The Phnom Penh Post

Council accuses Thailand of misleading media about Red Shirts’ whereabouts

THE Council of Ministers on Tuesday again accused Thai officials of fuelling reports that Red Shirts are hiding out in the Kingdom, after the daily newspaper The Nation reported that leaders of the antigovernment group might be planning “underground operations” from Cambodian soil.

A story published Tuesday by The Nation stated that “many senior red shirts are reportedly hiding in Cambodia while allegedly plotting a third red-shirt rally and even underground operations in the coming months”.

Tith Sothea, a spokesman for the Press and Quick Reaction Unit of the Council of Ministers, said that the article constituted evidence that the Thai government was deliberately misleading its national press.

“Thailand should be honest with Cambodia, and should contact Cambodia to get the true information,” Tith Sothea said.

“It is a shame that the Thai government continues to use the media to publish fake information that could provoke trouble with Cambodia.”

Earlier this month, a report by ASTV, a Thai news station, said Red Shirt leaders Arisman Phongruangrong and Suphorn Atthawong were hiding in Banteay Meanchey province’s Poipet town.

In response, the Council of Ministers issued a statement that “false reports have been fabricated again and again by the Thai Vicious Circle aimed at discrediting the Kingdom of Cambodia”.

Last week’s statement also criticised a May 31 report quoting a Thai military official as saying that a group of Cambodian migrant labourers might have been trying to transport alleged “bomb making materials” to Muslim insurgents in Thailand’s restive southern provinces.

Thai government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn referred questions to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spokesmen for which could not be reached for comment.

Also Tuesday, the Banteay Meanchey’s provincial police chief accused Thai officials and soldiers of attempting to clear a section of disputed border territory for the construction of a customs office, saying that an excavator had appeared Saturday at the Boeung Trakoun border crossing between Banteay Meanchey and Sa Kaeo provinces.

Hun Hean said Cambodian and Thai officials had discussed the matter, and that the Thai officials had ultimately decided to halt the planned clearance work.

“There was a tense discussion before we reached an agreement to stop their activities,” Hun Hean said. “If they do not stop, then we will use armed forces to force them to stop.”

Many senior red shirts are reportedly hiding in Cambodia?

Blacklisted people to be summoned for questioning

June 22, 2010
The Nation

Starting next Monday, the 83 people blacklisted for allegedly funding last month's violent red-shirt protests will be summoned to meet with the Department of Special Investigation after the Army commander yesterday signed a directive officially enabling the process.

The 83 people, mostly politicians and others with ties to ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, have until the end of next month to meet with DSI agents and defend their money transfers and business transactions suspected of funding red-shirt activities.

Failure to comply could result in a two-year prison term and/or a heavy fine.

The locations where the 83 people will meet with the DSI agents and officials from three other agencies will soon be announced. Many of the people may need to have extended meetings to clarify all questions regarding their money transfers, especially what they spent the cash on.

The DSI is also obtaining warrants to search the homes of many Pheu Thai Party MPs and other politicians for their suspected sheltering of fugitive red-shirt demonstrators, director-general Tharit Pengdit said yesterday.

DSI agents and Thai marshals are tracing red-shirt suspects wanted for torching city halls in several provinces and other arson attacks in Bangkok,

Ratchaburi, Kanchanaburi and Chon Buri. Many senior red shirts are reportedly hiding in Cambodia while allegedly plotting a third red-shirt rally and even underground operations in the coming months.

The blacklist was approved by the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Resolution at the recommendation of the Anti-Money Laundering Office.

Army chief General Anupong Paochinda has officially endorsed it, activating the entire process.

The DSI has taken over all criminal cases involving alleged acts of terrorism by the red shirts. Of the 155 cases, 75 concern direct acts of terrorism, 18 involve defying state authorities, 50 are assaults on state officials and others and 12 regard government-issued weapons.

Eighty-six suspects in 31 of the 155 cases, most of which were committed in Bangkok, have turned themselves in, 29 are on the run and one - Army specialist Khattiya Sawasdipol - died.

Of the arson attacks in five northeastern provinces, 396 suspects were wanted in nine cases - 105 have surrendered and 291 others are still hiding.

In the 31 cases in which suspects have turned themselves in, three have been indicted and one had all charges dropped.

1,000 police for Seh Daeng's funeral

21/06/2010
Bangkok Post

About 1,000 police will be deployed to provide security and help traffic flows around Wat Sommanatviharn in Pomprap Satruphai district where the royally sponsored funeral for Maj-Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol, better known as Seh Daeng, will be held on Tuesday, Metropolitan Police Division 1 commander Wichai Sangprapai said on Monday.

There will be 800 police from four anti-riot companies and another 200 from Nang Lerng and Chana Songkhram police stations.

Pol Maj-Gen Wichai said he expected at least 10,000 people to attend the funeral, including red-shirt supporters of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, Seh Daeng's former subordinates, opposition and government politicians, high-ranking police and soldiers.

It had not been decided whether inspection points would be set up for weapon checks, he said.

Maj-Gen Khattiya, who was the security chief for the UDD protest at Ratchaprasong, was shot in the head on May 13 while giving a press interview near the Sala Daeng intersection. He died on May 17.

Before the incident, Maj-Gen Khattiya had been suspended from duty as an army specialist for alleged misconduct after an army committee recommended he face criminal charges in a military court.

Maj Gen Khattiya's salary had also been suspended since Jan 4 after he was found to have offended and insulted army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda.

He also travelled to meet ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra once in Cambodia and again in Dubai without informing his superiors he was leaving the country, as required by miliary regulations.

He also led a group of about 200 former military rangers to work as security guards for the UDD and acted openly as the leader of the UDD's security team at the Ratchaprasong rally site.

Red Shirt leaders regroup in secret

June 21, 2010
Sian Powell, in Bangkok
From: The Australian

A RED Shirt leader on the run from Thai police has warned of "difficult weeks and years ahead".

The warning comes as the anti-government protesters regroup after their bloody defeat by the military.

Former national human rights commissioner and key Red Shirt negotiator Jaran Ditapichai also told The Australian that police had issued arrest warrants for more than 80 protesters who were in hiding. "I don't how many Red Shirts are in the clandestine (movement) because it is secret," he wrote in an email, adding two arrest warrants had been issued for him.

The government has yet to lift an emergency decree blanketing one-third of Thailand, fearing further unrest, and perhaps guerilla attacks.

Mr Jaran said the "serious violation of human rights" was now widespread; 400 Red Shirts had been arrested, rebel media had been shut down, and the bank accounts of more than 100 people had been frozen. Abhisit Vejjajiva's government was an "aristocratic dictatorship", he added.

Mr Jaran did not specify where he was hiding, but some Red Shirt leaders are believed to have sought refuge in Cambodia.

The Red Shirts left Thailand in a state of shock. Troops gunned down protesters, grenades were aimed at commuter train stations, a dissident general was shot in the head, and homemade bombs were hurled at soldiers.

Yet the struggle was no longer simply between the poor, mostly rural supporters of former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the establishment, Mr Jaran wrote, but a "socio-political struggle between the democratic and aristocratic camps". Last week, he added, three Red Shirt guards had been killed.

Mr Jaran called for an amnesty for "red and yellow". Thai prosecutors recently again delayed a decision on whether they would indict leaders from the "yellow shirt" People's Alliance for Democracy for the months-long occupation of Government House in 2008. The Yellow Shirt protest, culminating in the occupation of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport, finally helped force the red-aligned government out of office. Red Shirts have pointed to a double standard in Thai justice, noting the men behind the Government House occupation were free, while nearly all Red Shirt leaders have been denied bail.

"(Thailand) needs an amnesty for red and yellow, government and protest leaders, a truth and reconciliation commission, and a new constitution," Mr Jaran said.

An amnesty could see the release of Australian Conor Purcell, accused of breaching the emergency law when he gave speeches to massed Red Shirts, and Briton Jeff Savage, who was seen in a YouTube clip promising to burn down a shopping centre. Neither has been granted bail.

Besides Mr Jaran, Red Shirt leaders on the run include the flamboyant Arisman Pongruangrong, who in April evaded an inept arrest attempt by having himself lowered by cable from a hotel window.

Sean Boonpracong, an international spokesman for the Red Shirts, said: "The people are so enraged by what happened. They do not believe in Abhisit's reconciliation plans, or that he is sincere. Things will not return to normal any time soon."

Last week, eight of the captive senior protest leaders, and three Red Shirt guards, were charged with terrorism, which carries the death penalty. Some had turned themselves in after the barricades of the protest encampment in Bangkok's retail hub were last month finally breached by the military in a slow onslaught. Although Red Shirt leaders surrendered, and asked their followers to leave peacefully, some protesters sought revenge, and set fire to buildings across Bangkok, including a shopping centre.

At least 89 people were killed during the 10-week protest.

The Red Shirts say Mr Abhisit's government is illegitimate because he has never won an election. Mr Sean said most Red Shirts believed the Prime Minister would cling to power. "It's gone beyond politics now."

Red Shirts plan to use Cambodia as a command base for a hit-and-run style insurgency in bordering northeastern Thai provinces?

Abhisit's democratic choice

Jun 12, 2010
By Shawn W Crispin
Asia Time Online

BANGKOK - Thailand is sliding towards de-facto military rule and it is not clear that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has the will or power to turn back the authoritarian tide. A sustained state of emergency has given security forces extraordinary powers to detain suspects without trial, censor the media and ban public gatherings, powers the top brass have flexed after last month's dramatic crackdown on anti-government protesters encamped in the heart of Bangkok.

One military insider contends that the Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situations (CRES), which was formed to handle the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group's street protests, is morphing into a sort of ''shadow government'' to Abhisit's democratically elected coalition. There is no sign since the protest's dispersal that the CRES plans to disband. The insider says it is putting in place structures to sustain its influence over the country's administration.

Three weeks since the military moved decisively on May 19 against the UDD, a crackdown against the group's leaders, organizers and supporters has widened, with an emphasis on areas of the country that remain under emergency rule. According to diplomats and human-rights advocates, it is unclear how many people have been arrested and detained, and under what conditions they are being held. The government has acknowledged holding over 400 people; one local rights group claims as many as 100 people have gone missing since May 19.

"We believe that more have been detained than the government has acknowledged and that the army has let it be known that they plan on doing things their way. And the army has a long history of disappearing people in Thailand," says one representative of an international rights organization. The rights representative contends that the military and police are keeping two separate lists of detainees and that crackdown in the provinces is a "black box".

Emergency rule allows for suspects to be held for 30 days before they must either be charged or released - meaning the deadline for many suspects is fast approaching. Abhisit indicated on June 6 that emergency rule would remain in place indefinitely to guard against UDD-aligned armed elements that his government considers “terrorists”. Fanning those fears, exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the UDD's symbolic leader, said after the crackdown that angry UDD supporters might in future resort to "guerilla tactics".

Several UDD leaders, including Thaksin, have been accused of "terrorism" for their alleged association with armed militants who launched grenades and exchanged gunfire with security forces at the UDD's protest site. Officials believe that the shadowy armed wing was also responsible for a series of mysterious bombings that coincided with the UDD's protest activities and began soon after the Supreme Court ruled to seize US$1.4 billion worth of Thaksin's personal assets on corruption charges.

An estimated 89 people were killed and more than 1,800 injured in protest-related violence that began on April 10 and culminated in the May 19 crackdown. The government and UDD have blamed one another. Abhisit's government initiated this week an independent probe into the killings and injuries and the premier has indicated that he would take responsibility if troops were found to have violated internationally accepted rules of engagement. It is not initially clear, however, that the military's top brass share that sentiment.

Already the opposition Puea Thai party has questioned the impartiality of the panel's government-appointed head, a former attorney general who was assigned by the post-2006 coup military appointed administration to investigate Thaksin's government's alleged human-rights abuses, including a "war on drugs" campaign that is said to have resulted in as many as 2,200 extrajudicial killings. That inconclusive probe, however, resulted in no prosecutions or convictions of security forces or politicians.

Several independent observers believe that the military was responsible for the majority of the UDD protest-related killings, including the shooting deaths of two foreign journalists. However, it is unclear if troops used disproportionate force in dealing with what at least one foreign interlocutor characterized as an "armed rebellion". Many diplomats and analysts are now weighing whether the UDD has the capability or intent to follow through on Thaksin's veiled insurgency threat.

Underground threat
With its top leaders either in detention or in hiding and its chief financiers' faced with asset freezes, there are indications that the UDD is in disarray. Yet one UDD organizer who spoke with Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity indicated that a second generation of UDD leaders was biding its time until the government lifted emergency rule to launch new rounds of protests, including in north and northeastern provinces where the UDD's grassroots support is strongest.

Hardline UDD leaders, including Arisman Pongruangrong and Suporn Attawong, have reportedly fled to Cambodia and, according to the UDD organizer, are now involved in planning the next phase of the UDD's resistance. They have reportedly joined forces with exiled UDD strategist Jakrapob Penkair, who told foreign media after the military's suppression of an earlier UDD protest in April 2009 that the group was prepared to launch an underground "armed struggle".

Analysts now wonder whether the UDD plans to use Cambodia as a command base for a hit-and-run style insurgency in bordering northeastern Thai provinces, similar to the low-intensity campaign Muslim rebels have waged from Malaysia to destabilizing effect in Thailand's three southernmost provinces. UDD protesters torched provincial halls and other government installations in four northeastern provinces in the wake of the May 19 crackdown in Bangkok. Nonetheless the government excluded several northern and northeastern provinces among the 23 it first placed under curfew.

Skeptics believe that Thaksin's veiled insurgency threat is for now posturing aimed at enhancing his negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the government. During secret talks between Thaksin and government negotiator Sukhumbhand Paribatra held in mid-April in Brunei, Thaksin lobbied for the return of his diplomatic passport and access to the hundreds of millions of dollars not confiscated by the Supreme Court ruling, according to a government source familiar with the discussions which were organized by a Swedish parliamentarian interlocutor.

(During a June 1 press event in Bangkok, Sukhumbhand would neither confirm nor deny whether the negotiations took place, but diplomats and other international mediators have confirmed that they did. Public recognition of Thaksin's participation would seemingly undermine his recent disavowals of having any influence over the UDD's activities.)

Some analysts believe that the greater threat to stability comes from the UDD's attempts to sow divisions along factional lines inside the military. Questions remain unanswered about the identity of the black-clad assailants who fired assault rifles and M-79 grenades at security forces from the UDD's side of the protest site. Initial speculation in the wake of the men-in-black's first emergence on April 10 pointed to renegade Rangers, or tahahn prahn, loyal to Thaksin ally and former army commander and prime minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.

Certain diplomats now believe, judging by the fighting skills they exhibited, that the black-clad fighters were more likely paid mercenaries with experience as Marine SEALS or the air force's secretive anti-aircraft unit and links to the military's pre-Cadet Academy's Class 10 faction. In light of their alumni ties to Thaksin, many Class 10 soldiers were sidelined or demoted after the 2006 coup and on their retirement last year joined forces with the Thaksin-aligned opposition Puea Thai party.

Former Queen's Guard soldiers, including army commander General Anupong Paochinda and deputy army commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha, have since been on the promotional ascent - often at the expense of professional soldiers attached to less royally decorated army units. Some analysts have speculated that the seemingly systematic promotion of army royalists aims to ensure a smooth royal succession from 82-year-old King Bhumibol to his heir apparent son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.

However, the anticipated transition from the moderate Anupong to the more hardline Prayuth later this year is expected to accentuate intra-military disenfranchisement because Prayuth could potentially serve for four consecutive years in the army's top spot. A known palace favorite, Prayuth has already positioned many of his Class 12 allies for top-level promotions in this year's reshuffle.

Hardliner rising
Since April, Prayuth has asserted greater influence over the CRES, reportedly in reaction to Anupong's refusal to take a tougher tack against the UDD. Passions apparently came to a head after the April 10 melee where exchanges between armed protesters and troops resulted in 26 deaths, including five soldiers. Among the fallen was palace favorite Colonel Romklao Thuwatham and two other soldiers who were expected to fill key positions under Prayuth's command.

When the military moved decisively on May 19 against the UDD, King's and Queen's Guard units appeared side-by-side at a press conference broadcast on national television as the operation unfolded. Some analysts believe that the symbolic show of royally decorated unity was orchestrated to counter rumors of dissension among the ranks after days of firefights that killed scores of protesters and a handful of troops. However, during the military's operation against the UDD's protest site there was no indication of a breakdown in command authority, according to one well-placed diplomat.

The ongoing crackdown against the UDD is being viewed in some royalist quarters as a measuring stick of regional commanders' loyalty and effectiveness. Second Army Region commander Lieutenant General Weewalit Chornsamrit, who oversees security in the northeastern region, has passed the test with flying colors, according to one military insider. The First Army Region Commander, Lieutenant General Kanit Sapitak, charged with Bangkok's security, has reportedly come under fire from Prayuth for his perceived hesitant response to the UDD.

Some believe the top brass has deliberately played up the notion that the UDD represents a threat to the royal crown to shore up military unity. In the lead-up to the May 19 crackdown, Abhisit claimed without providing detailed evidence that the UDD secretly aimed to topple the monarchy - an incendiary accusation in Thailand's political and legal context. UDD leaders have strongly denied the allegation, including in a little red bilingual question-and-answer book distributed towards the end of their protest.

But its clear from the ongoing crackdown on UDD supporters, including an academic who has been released and a newspaper editor who is still in detention, that the military is exercising emergency powers to identify and target perceived threats to the crown. With the combined threats of a possible Thaksin-fueled insurgency and an alleged plot to topple the monarchy, Abhisit will be hard-pressed to roll back any time soon the military's discretionary powers.

Abhisit has relied heavily on the military because of his lack of control and trust in the police to maintain law and order. There have been instances where he has pushed back against military might. According to one person close to the premier, Abhisit threatened to step down in April amid speculation that Prayuth might stage a "half coup" that aimed to oust Anupong while leaving Abhisit's coalition government in place. He is also known to have resisted hardline military and royalist voices that wanted to crack down on the UDD's protest earlier, according to diplomats.

In reply to a journalist's question at a May 29 press conference on whether he ever considered resigning over the loss of life during the May 19 crackdown, Abhisit said he would take personal responsibility if the independent probe initiated this week found him guilty of wrongful loss of life. He emphasized that he has tried to find a "peaceful" solution to the country's crisis and underscored his long personal history of pushing for democratic reforms as an elected politician.

To signal a return to democratic normalcy, Abhisit returned to work at Government House after spending nearly two months at a Bangkok military base due to concerns for his personal security. He has indicated plans to stay the course of his "reconciliation roadmap" and floated anew the potential for dissolving parliament and holding elections before his term is up at the end of 2011.

But there are emerging doubts that Prayuth and his soldier allies would be willing to risk an election result that saw Abhisit ousted, a Thaksin-aligned government installed and the military's recent record opened to tougher scrutiny.

Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.

Can a new Thailand emerge from the Red Shirt rubble?

A Thai soldier stands guard outside a broken bank window in Bangkok on May 21, 2010, in the days following the military crackdown. (Fayaz Kabli/Reuters)
Red Shirt protesters are welcomed home at the Chiang Mai train station 700 kilometres north of Bangkok, where the protest movement has its strongest support. (Caren Firouz/Reuters)

Friday, May 28, 2010
By Brendan Brady, special to CBC News
Analysis

Battered Bangkok

The two-month, sometimes violent standoff in Bangkok is over now, with the Thai military having forcibly dispersed the country's red-shirted protestors.

The government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva managed to stamp out the Red Shirts bold display of resistance, in which they occupied the city's posh commercial centre and fended off initial military movements against their sizeable encampment.

But the dramatic, days-long conclusion to the standoff brought no resolution to the underlying divisions between the Red Shirts and their supporters, who are typically characterized as representing rural and new-money interests, and their yellow-shirted opponents, who are associated with the traditional Bangkok-led establishment.

Even as the Red Shirt leaders were being rounded-up by authorities, the opposition movement continued to have mass support in most rural areas, and the violence in Bangkok that left at least 88 dead and more than 2,000 injured appears to have only hardened their resolve.

"Before, political conflicts were just between elites, and small groups would sit down to fight it out or to compromise," observes Puangthong Pawakapan, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

This time, she said, "it's dividing all people and compromise is over."

Awakening

In Thailand's revolving door of democracies, coups and dictatorships, regimes have risen and fallen frequently. But the country's Bangkok-dominated political establishment has largely remained intact.

The past 77 years of constitutional monarchy have seen 18 coups, while raucous protests have regularly rocked the capital since the beginning of the country's democracy movement in 1973.

However, the incoming and outgoing factions have generally hailed from the same insular social strata, a factor that has severely limited every new government's approach to fundamental reform, many observers say.

If, in the past, the demands of the electorate were often undermined by tradeoffs among the ruling and business elites, the sheer number of those who are today so passionately engaged in political life has complicated those kinds of solutions.

"The old magic and way of holding things together have become obsolete," says Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"Thai society has become more complicated. Unspoken arrangements within a limited elite no longer suffice to hold the country together."

Broad-based anger

Indeed, Montesano says, a new resistance movement with a deep grassroots foundation has emerged, uniting rural Thais — whose improved access to information and travel — with a growing urban working- and lower-middle class with whom they share common cause.

During the protests in Bangkok, many of these rural communities, which had previously seen little room for themselves in national politics, were up in arms, holding town rallies and fundraising for the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, the anti-government pressure group more commonly known as the Red Shirts.

Discontent in the countryside had been simmering for more than three years, since a military coup overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra, the last elected prime minister, who is now in hiding.

Despite being a billionaire telecom tycoon, Thaksin was seen as the first politician to have substantively dealt with the concerns of the poor.

His populism, of course, has been viewed with a large degree of cynicism. But rural communities in particular gratefully received his rhetorical overtures as well as his development funds and low-cost health care.

More importantly, in the current context, his patronage network remains a significant force behind the protests.

At the same time, though, the protest movement gained much of its strength from farmers, manual laborers and factory workers who were demonstrating a new assertiveness.

In the early, more peaceful stages of the protests in Bangkok, surprising numbers of local residents commiserated with the tens of thousands of rural Thais who flooded the capital — undermining the government's characterization of the Red Shirts as merely hired agitators.

Even more troubling for the government and army, though, was the apparent support, both direct and tacit, for the Red Shirts by monks and even some government security personnel.

Monks carry considerable moral authority in Thai society, while the police, in numerous instances, appeared unwilling to suppress the protestors, who mostly derive from the same humble roots.

A new society?

This social awakening, says Federico Ferrara, an academic at the National University of Singapore and author of Thailand Unhinged: Unravelling the Myth of Thai-style Democracy, is leading to an inexorable disintegration of the existing social contract.

Powerful unelected people and institutions "can no longer continue to use such power to subvert the people's will without encountering some serious resistance or inviting an angry backlash," he says.

But how much change will be consolidated from this backlash is still not clear.

Jakrapob Penkair, a spokesman for Thaksin during his time in office and now an adviser to the fugitive former prime minister, says that the Red Shirt movement, at its purest, is not pushing simply for regime change but for "new guidelines for society."

Jakrapob may not be the best representative of the movement, given that his vehement anti-royalist stance is not shared by most rural Thais. But he does speak to their common belief in the need for an overhaul of the country's political life.

The Red Shirts have mobilized around a gospel of injustice. But while they have enfranchised — at least rhetorically — large segments of the population that were previously subdued, the movement has yet to show clearly how they would transform the political landscape itself.

Only that it can't be done when the cards are stacked against them.

Brendan Brady is a journalist currently based in Cambodia, where his main subjects of interest include the Khmer Rouge war crimes tribunal, human rights abuses, diplomatic disputes and religious tensions. His writing has also appeared in the Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and World Politics Review, among other publications.

Red, Yellow, and Roots of Thai Turmoil

Angkor Wat bas-relief: Notice two types of troops in the Khmer Army, the Khmers on the left carrying shields, disciplined and keeping in rank. The ‘Syem’, either referring to their dark skin or possibly Siamese, were mercenaries stand in front of the main Khmer army. Probably as cannon fodder to wear down the opposition. Notice their generally ill-disciplined manner and long, unkempt hair. These troops, the Khmer army, march towards a battle against the Cham, who came from what is now Vietnam. (Source: The Southeast Asian Archaelogy Newsblog)

Monday, May 24, 2010
Op-Ed by MP

THE current political turmoil in Thailand is only the latest fission in a long suppressed socio-historical tension that can be traced back to the conception and evolution of the 'Siamese' dynasty as distinct from its closest cousin and rival that broke away to form the separate Kingdom of Laos. Some scholars assert that Siamese - a derivative of the word ‘Siem’ as in ‘Siem Reap’ in Khmer is a pejorative term meaning 'swarthy' (having a dark skin). Whether there is veracity to this assertion, successive Thai historians and nationalists have felt offended enough by the use as well as the implied or embedded connotations of the term to have demanded its replacement by the more acceptable adjective 'Thai' - meaning ‘free’ or freemen - in formal usage, which is in turn, a rendition of the ethnographic pronoun of T'ai, a reference to that linguistic group that would have once enclosed the forebears of the modern day peoples of Laos and 'Siam' as well as clusters of ethnic T'ai descends to be found still in Southern China today under the same bracket.

Inscriptions at Angkor also mentioned 'Siem Kuk' - Siamese war slaves or prisoners - and this fact has done little since to assuage the slighted sentiment of the Thai elite. Nevertheless, as a family grouping, they were, perhaps, as varied and eclectic as the Khmer-Mon linguistic entity. Note also the striking similarities between the Laotian and Thai languages - to unaccustomed ears both peoples could almost be mistaken for speaking the same tongue. Be that as it may, ambition, rivalry, historical animosity between the two ruling Houses, aided by (mostly, partial Thai scholars) have much to do with the way generations of Thais have distanced themselves from what they have been led to look down upon as sub-civilised, inferior races that now make up the main plank of the rural poor of Isan or the North-East - the stronghold of the so-called Red Shirts.

In the main, and at a risk of oversimplifying, Thailand’s political unrest can be viewed from two broad, but closely interlinked perspectives: 1) the historical perspective and, 2) the socio-economic perspective.

1) From the first perspective, Thai society can be seen as characterised by racial ethnic divisions and tensions that are the de facto legacy of Siamese aggrandisement and imperialism from the moment the first Thai state emerged and Thai civilisation created in supersession of the great Khmer civilisation that made possible that creation. By themselves ethnic patterns and distinctions are not necessarily sufficient ingredients for such a violent fracture – this may require other forces to give them cohesion or potency – yet they remain enduring, unwedded, or more accurately, unassimilated outlines illustrating the far from settled business of empire building as a historical process itself. In other words, Thai society, despite having enjoyed marked material progress in the modern era compared to the economic limbo that most of her neighbours have been in, is far from a melting pot success that successive Thai dynasties would have yearned for. The social neglect of the former provinces of Laos and Cambodia, or the subjects of the former Khmer Empire has been more a product of lack of interest on the part of Thai rulers than Thai or Siamese racism or deliberate ethnic discrimination per se. Although racial/ethnic sentiment can drive public policies, such prejudice should not be attributed to an overall ethnic majority, but to - at most - a handful of autocratic opportunists, who claim to represent that majority. This situation is precisely the case with Thailand’s semi-democratic, feudalistic stage in political economic development, which leads to the discussion of the second perspective.

2) Traditionally, analysts have identified the ‘Three Ms’ of Thai Monarchy, Military and Monks as the forces that bind together Thai society. While this model of explanation may facilitates our understanding somewhat and to an extent, I do feel it is rather superfluous a model, and may even mislead us into thinking that the Sangha or the Clergy who certainly have moral, ceremonial influence over lay community are in a position to translate that influence into effective political action, or that the Military is an autonomous institution only occasionally rolling the tanks onto the streets of Bangkok to enforce democratic mandate or referee political disputes.

It is also widely believed that the world’s longest reigning monarch today is an absolute Autocrat who wields decisive power in Thai politics conforming political outcomes to his personal wishes and agenda. My hunch is that while the King is certainly one of the wealthiest man in the world today, his overall political influence is more apparent than real. As in most developing, modernising economies – and more so in established post-industrial economies – a whole new powerbase of industrial economic elites in combination are the real powerhouses behind Thai political institutions. They may be Siamese, Sino-Thai, Sino-Khmer or whatever in origin, but they are the exclusive 2 percent of the entire population who command between them 80-90 percent of Thailand’s economic wealth. The economic status of the King alone allows us to place him legitimately among that 2 percent, and by way of deduction, we can also add Thaksin Shinawatra – the man who inspires and finances the Red Shirts’ mutiny – to that list.

Thaksin may not be the philanthropist that he wants his followers to think he is, but his definition of life’s success is in line with a family motto of ruthlessly and relentlessly strengthening and expanding infinitely his personal empire and that was what drove him into Thai politics in the first place. So instead of viewing the long neglected rural poor of Thailand as a burden and handicap for his administration, he proactively set about positively altering their economic conditions, banking on their reciprocated loyalty and political allegiance as fair rewards for his sacrifice and fruits of his labour. Where the Monarchy is content to let its traditional popular image be exploited in return for being allowed to conserve and add to its vast wealth through Crown Properties and other royal privileges, and where many of his rivals understood and accepted the rules and limits of patronage building, Mr Thaksin appeared to have trampled upon those sacred, unspoken vows, and inevitably aroused consternation and provoked ire among the Thai elite by effectively making a complete mockery of their carefully propped up White Elephant that is the Thai Monarchy.

This, in a nutshell, represents my view of the current Thai unrest. It is not meant nor pretended to be authoritative in any way, but a joiner to on-going public debate. I also hope my Thai friends find some positives in this amateur reflection and recognise that I have endeavoured to be as constructive and polite as the subject matter allows. I could prolong the discussion further by suggesting what needs to be done, but I think the Thai people know that already – perhaps better and more firmly than I do – that the Will of the people is something paramount and thus irresistible and is bound to prevail in the end, even if it takes longer than one would desire.

MP

Political temperature soars in Thailand's red capital

May 23, 2010
By Peter Janssen
DPA

Khon Kaen, Thailand - While red-shirted protestors ran amok in Bangkok last Wednesday, looting stores, breaking into bank branches and setting alight 36 buildings, a less publicized riot was underway in Khon Kaen, in northeastern Thailand, called Isan.

On May 13, hundreds of red shirt sympathizers burned down Khon Kaen City Hall and the office of the state-run National Broadcasting Television. Others attacked the palatial home of government politician Prajak Klaewklarharn.

In the assault on Prajak, who belongs to the Bhumjai Thai Party - a partner in the current coalition government - two protestors were shot dead by guards. Similar outbreaks were reported Wednesday in five other provincial towns, but Khon Kaen's uprising was the fiercest.

Khon Kaen is deemed the north-eastern capital of the red shirt movement, officially called the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which launched a mass protest in Bangkok on March 12 to force Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to dissolve parliament and hold new elections.

The protestors seized Ratchaprasong Road on April 3, turning the once posh commercial district of luxury department stores and five star hotels into a city of tents and makeshift sidewalk shacks, until troops finally dispersed the demonstration on Wednesday.

Hardcore members of the red shirts went on a rampage in Bangkok Wednesday evening after their leaders surrendered to authorities, raising serious concerns about Thailand's long term stability.

With many of the UDD leaders now under arrest, there are fears that the movement could take a more violent turn.

'Now that there are no leaders, the worm has gone underground,' said Yongyut Kongpatimakorn, a red shirt organizer in Khon Kaen, about 350 kilometres north-east of Bangkok. 'You've got a headless body that isn't being told where to throw its fist. What happens next is unpredictable and out of control, but it will not stop.'

Like most red shirt supporters, Yongyut, 74, is an ardent admirer of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose populist policies implemented during his two terms in office during 2001 to 2006 won him a mass following, especially among voters in Isan, Thailand's poorest region and home to nearly half the population.

Thaksin remains widely revered in Isan as the first prime minister to address some of their chronic problems, such as widespread indebtedness, giving them a sense of political entitlement that was missing before.

For many red shirts the protest in Bangkok was largely about hastening new polls that would bring in to power a new pro-Thaksin government. For Thaksin, who has been living in self exile to avoid a two-year jail term on an abuse-of-power conviction, the protest was a worthy investment.

'Thaksin spent hundreds of millions of baht to sponsor the protest by covering transportation costs and food supplies,' Yongyut said. 'The protestors weren't paid to be there, but they were happy to be getting three free meals a day.'

Now that the UDD protest in Bangkok has been dispersed, the government faces an uphill task in pacifying the red shirts.

'I believe the majority of people in the North-east didn't like to see the violence, the burning of buildings,' said Buapun Promphakping, a social science professor at Khon Kaen University.

'But meanwhile I think they still agree with the demands of the red shirts. They want democracy, they want equality, they don't want the traditional bureaucracy running everything and don't want double standards.'

Abhisit has promised to address some of these issues in the course of five-point reconciliation roadmap he will push through in coming months before holding an election, but given the widespread mistrust he faces in Isan, where his Democrat party has never won an election, there is skepticism that the roadmap can succeed in healing the now deep wounds.

'What will happen in the future is there will be resistance from red shirts, mostly in the North and North-east, but I won't say it will turn in to an insurgency like what we had 30 years ago,' Buapun said. 'That could only happen when you have support form outside countries.'

In the 1970s, the North-east was a hotbed for the Communist Party of Thailand, which had support from communist China.

The communist movement notoriously failed to ignite the passions of Thailand's rural masses. It remains to be seen how deep the red movement has sunk into the countryside, even in Isan.

'As I see it, the UDD leaders just took people from the villagers to die for them in Bangkok,' said Apichai, a former headman at Kam Pla Lai village, about 50 kilometres north-west of Khon Kaen city.

'In this province they don't all love the reds. There are some who love their opponents,' he said.

Thailand hunts for Red Shirt leaders

Thailand Weary, Divided After Military Crackdown On Red Shirt Protesters

A monk drags a chair with his belongings past the burnt out Central World shopping mall in Bangkok, 20 May 2010 (Photo: AP)

Brian Padden, VOA
Bangkok 21 May 2010

Bangkok is now recovering from 10 weeks of anti-government demonstrations that shut down much of the city. The Thai army removed the protesters by force Wednesday, in a military operation that left at least seven people dead and 88 wounded. While the government arrested most of the protest leaders, the divisions in Thai society that help create the protest movement remain.

An estimated 5,000 protesters, known as the "Red Shirts," occupied a three square kilometer area of Bangkok's business district for two months. Their leaders said they were a non-violent democracy movement representing poor and rural people.

But Naruemon Chabchumpon, Political Science Director at Chulalongkorn University, says the Red Shirts organization damaged its public image by its actions. For example, the leaders escalated their original demands for new elections to include arresting some Thai government officials, she said.

"Their demand is asking for early election and then the government proposed like a November election and they accept in the beginning, and at the end they are changing their demand every day," said Chabchumpon. "At that time I think the public in Bangkok feel that, start to wonder, what is their real demand."

When the military finally moved in to disperse the protesters they encountered armed resistance. Protesters shot at advancing soldiers and set buildings ablaze. The violence and destruction further alienated many in the city. Now, the camp is being dismantled and the area swept clean.

But Thai society remains divided.

Chabchumpon says to prevent unrest from reoccurring, the government needs to hold new elections and direct more economic assistance to the rural areas.

"In terms of the economic policy I think Thailand might have to start thinking about welfare state, to put more welfare to the rural areas because right now the rural people might feel that most of the budget go so much for urbanization," Chabchumpon said.

She adds, without political reconciliation, life in Thailand will never really return to normal.

Thailand's leaders face $1.2 billion repair bill

Thailand's leaders appealed for national reconciliation with opposition protesters yesterday as the government faced an estimated $1.2 billion (£840 million) bill to restore Bangkok's shattered city centre.

21 May 2010
Damien McElroy In Bangkok
Telegraph (UK)

Indirect losses to the Thai economy would be many times more the cost of rebuilding and restoring services in central Bangkok and other battle scared sites. Lost tourism receipts and a drop off in foreign investment are certain to be the knock-on consequences of the country's worst political upheaval in decades.

Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, reached out to Red Shirt sympathisers after the opposition movement was driven out of a Bangkok stronghold by the army.

"Fellow citizens, we all live in the same house. Now, our house has been damaged. We have to help each other," he said.

"We can certainly repair damaged infrastructure and buildings, but the important thing is to heal the emotional wounds and restore unity among the Thai people."

G4S, the global security firm, warned the Red Shirts, who have demanded fresh elections and the return of Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled prime minister, would re-emerge in a different form. "There are elements within the (Red Shirts) that believe political change can only be achieved through radical means," it said. "The country is still far from ending this crisis."

A British man who was filmed apparently taking part in opposition rallies and calling for buildings to be burnt to the ground, yesterday denied that he had carried out acts of arson.

Jeff Savage, 48, an NHS worker from London, admitted he was present when ringleaders decided to burn down a television station. The blaze trapped 100 people.

Thai police said Mr Savage, who has a Thai wife, was wanted for questioning and could face the death penalty.

With calm restored by the army crackdown, the economic impact of two months of demonstrations and subsequent riots, was revealed. Officials said restoring the 35 burnt buildings alone would cost $1.2 billion.

Korn Chatikavanij, the Finance Minister, told Asian leaders in Tokyo that tourism generated as much as a fifth of all Thai jobs. The news from Thailand would have a "disastrous" effect on arrival numbers, which were already 30 per cent lower since the start of the year.

He said: "With the events that took place over the past several weeks, and the pictures of these events flashing across TV screens across the world, it is going to have a very disastrous impact on tourism."

Thailand's exports based economy has proved remarkably resilient through the crisis and, until the latest events, growth was projected at more than 5 per cent. Mr Korn said that figure would now fall short but said he still expected some growth.

Even so the impact of the crisis was bound to cost more than the disastrous 2004 Tsunami, which wiped out a string of prominent resorts, including Phuket.

Sukumbhan Paribatra, Bangkok's governor declared that seven capital districts as disaster zones in the wake of the protests.

No foreign investor has pulled out of Thailand in the wake of the disruption but the British bank Standard Chartered, which announced thousands of new jobs across Asia yesterday, left Thailand off its expansion list and said it could not predict the future outlook.

Businessmen who stood helpless as looters and arsonists destroyed their livelihoods said employees would be laid-off.

"I have nothing left. I have to wait for assistance from the government," said Wanchai Lertsanehwong in the ruins of his clothes shop in a burned out cinema complex. "I feel very sad about what happened. It was the worst violence I've ever seen."

Thailand’s ex-PM Thaksin predicts guerrilla war

Wed May 19 2010
Nopporn Wong-Anan
Reuters

BANGKOK—Exiled former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Wednesday that a military crackdown on protesters backing him could spawn mass discontent and lead to guerrilla warfare.

Thaksin, ousted in a bloodless 2006 military coup, is denounced by adversaries as Thailand’s most corrupt politician. To his anti-government supporters, who set Bangkok ablaze on Wednesday, he is a saviour.

Speaking from an undisclosed location, Thaksin said the deadly crackdown on “Red Shirt” protesters could degenerate into widespread violence.

“There is a theory saying a military crackdown can spread resentment and these resentful people will become guerrillas,” Thaksin said in an interview as troops fought protesters in Bangkok, sparking violence in outer provinces.

“There are lots and lots of people across the country who are upset because they were prevented from joining the Bangkok rally.”

His critics say Thaksin is a crony capitalist who plundered the economy and perverted democracy for the benefit of his family and friends while in power from 2001 until the 2006 coup.

But to many rural voters, he was the first leader to consider the needs of millions living beyond Bangkok’s bright lights.

Thaksin, who scored two landslide poll wins, has been living abroad in self-exile since being removed.

But a two-month campaign by his supporters to oust the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, hoping to gain Thaksin a political amnesty and justice, culminated on Wednesday in the country’s worst political violence in 18 years.

Rioting and fires swept Bangkok after troops stormed the protesters’ encampment, forcing their leaders to surrender.

Protesters set ablaze at least 27 buildings, including the Thai stock exchange and Central World, Southeast Asia’s second-biggest department store complex.

A night curfew was declared in Bangkok and 21 provinces.

Thaksin, 60, has hovered over Thai politics since fleeing the country in 2008, accused of undermining the powerful monarchy and breaching conflict-of-interest laws. He was sentenced in absentia to two years in prison.

Government officials say the multimillionaire former telecommunications tycoon was funding the protests to the tune of about $1.5 million a day. Both Red Shirt leaders and Thaksin deny he funded the anti-government movement.

In his comments, Thaksin rejected any notion he was the stumbling block in failed talks between the government and protesters.

“I only gave them advice that they should make a collective decision as a group, not letting any individual leaders to make a decision by their own . . . I never discussed about my personal interests with them,” Thaksin said.

Thaksin, a former police officer, is accused by critics of abusing his electoral mandate to systematically dismantle constitutional checks and balances while consolidating his own rule.

In 2005, he looked unassailable with a record majority in parliament based on the platform of cheap health care and handouts for rural voters that swept him to power four years earlier.

He formed the first elected government to serve a full term, after which it was re-elected. He was also the first leader in Thai history to form a one-party government.

But corruption scandals and alleged abuses of power eroded his popularity among Bangkok’s middle classes. Simmering anger exploded in 2006 when his relatives sold off, tax-free, their $1.9 billion stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms empire he founded, to a Singapore state company.

Thaksin responded by calling an election three years early, which he duly won.

Born into a family of ethnic Chinese silk merchants in 1949 in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Thaksin became a police officer in 1973 before gaining a masters degree in criminal justice at Eastern Kentucky University.

He is still popular among rank-and-file policemen, accused by government backers of doing too little to stop the protests.

In 1987, he established a computer dealership with his wife that started selling hardware to the police. The company evolved into Shin Corp, a telecoms conglomerate with interests ranging from mobile phones to satellites, the Internet and the media.

But a corruption probe dogged him in power until he convinced investigators he made an “honest mistake” in failing to declare millions of dollars of shares transferred to his domestic staff.

A 2003 war on drugs in which 2,500 people were killed boosted his image as a crime-buster, but sparked outrage from rights groups, who said he was riding roughshod over civil liberties.

In February, Thailand’s top court seized $1.4 billion of his assets, saying it was acquired through abuse of power.

Sacrava's Political Cartoon: The Yellow Greedy Dinosaur

Cartoon by Sacrava (on the web at http://sacrava.blogspot.com)

Bangkok's savage conflict may be a mere dress rehearsal

A Redshirt in Bangkok: both sides have used violence Photo: Getty Images

Thailand is torn between two rival camps, best characterised as competing patronage networks.

19 May 2010
By Duncan McCargo
Telegraph (UK)

Since March 12, tens of thousands of red-shirted demonstrators have occupied central areas of Bangkok, demanding the resignation of the Oxford-educated prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the dissolution of parliament. The violence peaked on April 10 – when more than 20 people were killed – and has flared up again, as the military have tried to clear out the Redshirts' encampment.

At times, the security forces have fought pitched battles with protesters. The fatalities have included a Japanese cameraman, and several foreigners have been injured, including a Canadian journalist. In recent days, snipers have been shooting people from high buildings.

This has been portrayed as a struggle between poor farmers from the countryside and an undemocratic Bangkok elite. Yet despite the sympathetic coverage for the Redshirts in much of the international media, this is not a classic "pro-democracy" struggle between good guys and bad guys. It is a savage and dispiriting civil conflict, from which nobody emerges with much credit.

At the last election in December 2007, the ruling Democrat Party took 39.63 per cent of the party list vote – almost exactly the same as the 39.60 per cent of the People's Power Party, from which the Redshirts are largely drawn. Neither side has had a monopoly on popular support; both have some valid arguments and positions; and neither has been playing by the rules.

Amnesty International has condemned the shooting of at least 35 unarmed protesters in the past few days, either by uniformed soldiers, or unidentified forces apparently working on behalf of the state. But at the same time, elements of the Redshirt movement have used heavy weapons against a range of government and civilian targets, including the luxury Dusit Thani Hotel, and at one point they stormed Chulalongkorn University Hospital.

The central problem is that Thailand is torn between two rival camps, each led and directed by rich and powerful factions. Though ostensibly divided by ideological differences, in reality the anti-government Redshirts and the pro-government Yellowshirts are best characterised as competing patronage networks, bound together primarily by personal loyalties and emotional attachments. Supporters on both sides have been mobilised by intermediaries playing on local and family ties.

The figureheads for each side are prime minister Abhisit and Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister who was deposed in 2006 in the latest in a series of military coups. The former Manchester City owner certainly remains deeply linked to the protests; if he were to call for the Redshirts to step back from the brink, his words would be extremely influential. But many among the fractious, essentially ad hoc coalition are indifferent to, or even critical of, Thaksin. While some are indeed farmers from his strongholds in the north and north-east, the military recently estimated that 70 per cent of the protesters come from Bangkok and its provinces.

Across Thailand, the Yellow-Red divide cuts through households: married couples, parents and children, and lifelong friends have been torn asunder. Even though swaths of the country north of Bangkok have become virtual no-go areas for government ministers, this is much bigger than a simple class or regional divide.

The Redshirts argue that Thaksin was removed from power by an illegitimate military coup, that a majority of voters remain loyal to pro-Thaksin parties, and that the present Democrat government came to power as a result of dodgy backroom manoeuvres.

It is true that the Abhisit government took office after a previously pro-Thaksin faction switched sides, rather as if the Lib Dems decided to defect from their alliance with the Tories and put Labour back into Downing Street. The Redshirts also complain, with some justification, that the government has done nothing to punish the "terrorist" transgressions of the yellow-shirted People's Alliance for Democracy in 2008, which included occupying Government House for more than three months and seizing Bangkok's airports; they also lament that their side has been harshly treated in landmark court cases.

Abhisit's supporters point out that for all Thaksin's grandiose rhetoric, he was no great supporter of democracy or human rights in his five years in office, during which he practised "CEO government" and staunchly opposed any form of decentralisation. They are appalled by the thuggish tactics of the Redshirts, and their distasteful alliance with hit squads informally headed by Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, a rogue army officer who was killed last week by a mysterious sniper. Government supporters are also deeply frustrated by the failure of the police – whose ranks are packed with Thaksin supporters – to maintain order, and the inability or unwillingness of the armed forces to carry out a decisive crackdown.

Underlying the mistrust and paranoia on both sides is a set of larger fears about the future of the country. King Bhumibol, for many a symbol of unity and stability, is 82 and in poor health. Whatever their political orientation, most Thais can hardly imagine a future without him. On one level, Thailand's political crisis is an expression of collective anxiety about the succession. If the sides cannot negotiate a settlement before then, the recent spate of protests may be dress rehearsals for an even more dramatic, and more damaging, confrontation.

Duncan McCargo is Professor of South-East Asian politics at the University of Leeds

Thailand unravelling

Red shirts' anger has its roots in deep-seated inequalities

May 19, 2010
By ERIK MARTINEZ KUHONTA, Freelance
Montreal Gazette (Quebec, Canada)

Despite some 18 coups in its contemporary history, Thailand has long been a bastion of stability in Southeast Asia. It has avoided bouts of mass violence that have marred regional neighbours like Indonesia and Cambodia, and has become a major destination for tourists and an economic dynamo in Asia.

However, the current crisis that has parts of Bangkok looking like Beirut has the potential to unhinge Thailand from its stable moorings. Since the first clashes erupted in April, 67 people have been killed, and more than 1,700 have been injured. This degree of violence is unprecedented in Thailand.

At its core, this crisis has its roots in deep-seated inequalities between the rural sector and the ruling institutions and social groups based in Bangkok. The conflict between the Red Shirts and the Thai government stems from the September 2006 coup that ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The Red Shirts, primarily rural people from the poorer areas of Thailand in the north and northeast, are avid supporters of Thaksin.

Incensed by the coup as well as by recent court rulings and backroom deals that eliminated governments led by Thaksin allies, the Red Shirts have been pushing to force out the current government of the Democrat Party, which took charge of government in 2008 when a number of Thaksin's parliamentary allies switched sides to give the Democrats a majority. That shady deal and repeated efforts to oust Thaksin and his allies are what so enrage the Red Shirts.

At a deeper level, the Red Shirts' support for Thaksin and visceral opposition to the Democrat-led government is a result of Thaksin's pro-poor policies. These policies, often called populist, included a universal health-care program known as the 30-Baht (75-cent) policy, a debt-moratorium program for farmers, and a Village Fund scheme that would have given every village in the country 1 million baht ($25,000) to jumpstart small-scale entrepreneurial projects.

The record of these policies in alleviating poverty has been mixed, although the health-care scheme has been the most successful. But the actual success of these policies is less important than their political effect. The policies have created a powerful social base for Thaskin's party and a devoted following for his leadership. Unlike any prime minister in Thailand's history, Thaksin has successfully created a bond with the rural poor, established a track record of policy innovation in favor of the rural sector, and mobilized them to political action. This has created a major challenge for elites in Bangkok.

The Bangkok elite - the aristocratic class, the military, and large parts of the middle class - remain deeply opposed to Thaksin and the Red Shirts, especially because they view Thaksin as a corrupt prime minister who used his public office to protect and advance his capitalist interests.

But opposition to Thaksin is also due to his attempts to challenge King Bhumipol Adulyadej's traditional role as supreme leader of the nation. Since his accession to the throne in 1946, 82-year-old Bhumipol has been one of the most successful and unifying monarchs in Thailand. But the monarchy has also shown little tolerance for politicians who could displace its position as patron and builder of the nation. This is exactly what Thaksin sought to do through the force of his charisma, as much as through his pro-poor policies.

Thailand now finds itself on the brink of civil war. In the past, when Thai politics appeared to have reached a point of no return, Bhumipol was able to step in and bring the conflict to an end. This is no longer possible because the conflict involves the monarchy's role in the polity, but also because the king has been ailing for much of the past year. A recent effort by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to negotiate was rejected by the Red Shirts, pushing the government to use military force to dislodge the protesters. But a military strategy will only inflame rural discontent in the long-run. Both sides need to submit to an impartial negotiator, whether from within Thailand or from abroad, so that negotiations can be credible and earnest.

Once the violence subsides, the larger issue that Thailand needs to confront is the deep marginalization of the rural poor. The Bangkok elite has long ruled on the assumption that the rural poor would accept their fate and would never pose a serious challenge to the state and to society's conservative norms.

This is no longer the case and puts the burden on the elite to change its thinking if it wishes to remain relevant in the midst of political and social change.

Erik Martinez Kuhonta teaches political science at McGill University.

New Thai PM faces deep divisions, poor economy [... not to mention the border dispute with Cambodia]

Tuesday, December 16, 2008
By AMBIKA AHUJA

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) — Thailand's new prime minister faces the difficult task of unifying a country torn apart by months of violent anti-government protests — demonstrations that battered the key tourism industry just as the global economy was slipping into its worst crisis in decades.

The selection on Monday of Abhisit Vejjajiva — the 44-year-old, Oxford-educated opposition leader — marks the first time in eight years that a civilian government will be led by an opponent of exiled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has loomed over Thai politics since he was ousted by a military coup in 2006.

Abhisit began Tuesday to put together his Cabinet, which will struggle to heal the rift between the middle class that is his base and the rural poor who backed Thaksin — and manage an economy buffeted by Thailand's political turmoil and a global slowdown.

"It will be more difficult for the Democrats to achieve fast results in tackling the economic problems now than in 1997," when most of Asia sunk economic recession, said Ekamol Khiriwat, former head of Thailand's stock exchange. "Now everything is kind of slowing down."

Abhisit, who has a strong economic background, is expected to unveil a solid economic team when the cabinet positions are announced, probably on Friday.

Abhisit must still be officially endorsed as prime minister by the constitutional monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej — likely within several days.

His appointment is expected to bring at least a brief period of calm, although the move unleashed new protests by supporters of the previous government. Abhisit's image as an upper-class elitist also could hinder his attempts to end the turmoil.

In Monday's vote in the lower house of parliament, Abhisit received support from 235 lawmakers, compared with 198 for a pro-Thaksin former national police chief.

As lawmakers arrived for the vote, Thaksin supporters tried to block the gates of parliament in a last-ditch attempt to prevent the outcome. Riot police later cleared a path for lawmakers to leave the compound. The demonstrators hurled rocks at vehicles and abuse at lawmakers inside but most dispersed peacefully.

From a wealthy family of Thai-Chinese origin, Abhisit was born in England and educated at Eton and Oxford, where he earned an honors degree in philosophy, politics and economics. His first name means "privilege" in Thai and his friends call him by his foreign nickname, Mark.

He joined the country's oldest party, the Democrats, in 1992 and became one of the youngest ever members of parliament. He rose in the party ranks and in popularity, especially among the educated in Bangkok who took to his clean record, polite demeanor, articulate if somewhat bland speeches and movie-star looks.

The Democrats had been in opposition since 2001, when Thaksin, a former telecommunications tycoon, first took power.

Military leaders ousted Thaksin in September 2006, accusing him of corruption, keeping him in exile and controlling the country for an interim period until elections in December 2007 brought Thaksin's allies back into power. He returned to Thailand in February 2008 to face corruption charges but later fled into exile again, and was convicted in absentia.

However, Thaksin, whose whereabouts are unknown, still enjoys significant support among Thailand's rural masses. Until Monday, his supporters had remained in control of the government.

Monday's vote ended six months of instability caused by anti-government demonstrations that began with a takeover of Thailand's government house and culminated with last month's airports takeover.