Showing posts with label Thailand politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thailand politics. Show all posts

Monday, May 24, 2010

Red, Yellow, and Roots of Thai Turmoil

Angkor Wat bas-relief: Notice two types of troops in the Khmer Army, the Khmers on the left carrying shields, disciplined and keeping in rank. The ‘Syem’, either referring to their dark skin or possibly Siamese, were mercenaries stand in front of the main Khmer army. Probably as cannon fodder to wear down the opposition. Notice their generally ill-disciplined manner and long, unkempt hair. These troops, the Khmer army, march towards a battle against the Cham, who came from what is now Vietnam. (Source: The Southeast Asian Archaelogy Newsblog)

Monday, May 24, 2010
Op-Ed by MP

THE current political turmoil in Thailand is only the latest fission in a long suppressed socio-historical tension that can be traced back to the conception and evolution of the 'Siamese' dynasty as distinct from its closest cousin and rival that broke away to form the separate Kingdom of Laos. Some scholars assert that Siamese - a derivative of the word ‘Siem’ as in ‘Siem Reap’ in Khmer is a pejorative term meaning 'swarthy' (having a dark skin). Whether there is veracity to this assertion, successive Thai historians and nationalists have felt offended enough by the use as well as the implied or embedded connotations of the term to have demanded its replacement by the more acceptable adjective 'Thai' - meaning ‘free’ or freemen - in formal usage, which is in turn, a rendition of the ethnographic pronoun of T'ai, a reference to that linguistic group that would have once enclosed the forebears of the modern day peoples of Laos and 'Siam' as well as clusters of ethnic T'ai descends to be found still in Southern China today under the same bracket.

Inscriptions at Angkor also mentioned 'Siem Kuk' - Siamese war slaves or prisoners - and this fact has done little since to assuage the slighted sentiment of the Thai elite. Nevertheless, as a family grouping, they were, perhaps, as varied and eclectic as the Khmer-Mon linguistic entity. Note also the striking similarities between the Laotian and Thai languages - to unaccustomed ears both peoples could almost be mistaken for speaking the same tongue. Be that as it may, ambition, rivalry, historical animosity between the two ruling Houses, aided by (mostly, partial Thai scholars) have much to do with the way generations of Thais have distanced themselves from what they have been led to look down upon as sub-civilised, inferior races that now make up the main plank of the rural poor of Isan or the North-East - the stronghold of the so-called Red Shirts.

In the main, and at a risk of oversimplifying, Thailand’s political unrest can be viewed from two broad, but closely interlinked perspectives: 1) the historical perspective and, 2) the socio-economic perspective.

1) From the first perspective, Thai society can be seen as characterised by racial ethnic divisions and tensions that are the de facto legacy of Siamese aggrandisement and imperialism from the moment the first Thai state emerged and Thai civilisation created in supersession of the great Khmer civilisation that made possible that creation. By themselves ethnic patterns and distinctions are not necessarily sufficient ingredients for such a violent fracture – this may require other forces to give them cohesion or potency – yet they remain enduring, unwedded, or more accurately, unassimilated outlines illustrating the far from settled business of empire building as a historical process itself. In other words, Thai society, despite having enjoyed marked material progress in the modern era compared to the economic limbo that most of her neighbours have been in, is far from a melting pot success that successive Thai dynasties would have yearned for. The social neglect of the former provinces of Laos and Cambodia, or the subjects of the former Khmer Empire has been more a product of lack of interest on the part of Thai rulers than Thai or Siamese racism or deliberate ethnic discrimination per se. Although racial/ethnic sentiment can drive public policies, such prejudice should not be attributed to an overall ethnic majority, but to - at most - a handful of autocratic opportunists, who claim to represent that majority. This situation is precisely the case with Thailand’s semi-democratic, feudalistic stage in political economic development, which leads to the discussion of the second perspective.

2) Traditionally, analysts have identified the ‘Three Ms’ of Thai Monarchy, Military and Monks as the forces that bind together Thai society. While this model of explanation may facilitates our understanding somewhat and to an extent, I do feel it is rather superfluous a model, and may even mislead us into thinking that the Sangha or the Clergy who certainly have moral, ceremonial influence over lay community are in a position to translate that influence into effective political action, or that the Military is an autonomous institution only occasionally rolling the tanks onto the streets of Bangkok to enforce democratic mandate or referee political disputes.

It is also widely believed that the world’s longest reigning monarch today is an absolute Autocrat who wields decisive power in Thai politics conforming political outcomes to his personal wishes and agenda. My hunch is that while the King is certainly one of the wealthiest man in the world today, his overall political influence is more apparent than real. As in most developing, modernising economies – and more so in established post-industrial economies – a whole new powerbase of industrial economic elites in combination are the real powerhouses behind Thai political institutions. They may be Siamese, Sino-Thai, Sino-Khmer or whatever in origin, but they are the exclusive 2 percent of the entire population who command between them 80-90 percent of Thailand’s economic wealth. The economic status of the King alone allows us to place him legitimately among that 2 percent, and by way of deduction, we can also add Thaksin Shinawatra – the man who inspires and finances the Red Shirts’ mutiny – to that list.

Thaksin may not be the philanthropist that he wants his followers to think he is, but his definition of life’s success is in line with a family motto of ruthlessly and relentlessly strengthening and expanding infinitely his personal empire and that was what drove him into Thai politics in the first place. So instead of viewing the long neglected rural poor of Thailand as a burden and handicap for his administration, he proactively set about positively altering their economic conditions, banking on their reciprocated loyalty and political allegiance as fair rewards for his sacrifice and fruits of his labour. Where the Monarchy is content to let its traditional popular image be exploited in return for being allowed to conserve and add to its vast wealth through Crown Properties and other royal privileges, and where many of his rivals understood and accepted the rules and limits of patronage building, Mr Thaksin appeared to have trampled upon those sacred, unspoken vows, and inevitably aroused consternation and provoked ire among the Thai elite by effectively making a complete mockery of their carefully propped up White Elephant that is the Thai Monarchy.

This, in a nutshell, represents my view of the current Thai unrest. It is not meant nor pretended to be authoritative in any way, but a joiner to on-going public debate. I also hope my Thai friends find some positives in this amateur reflection and recognise that I have endeavoured to be as constructive and polite as the subject matter allows. I could prolong the discussion further by suggesting what needs to be done, but I think the Thai people know that already – perhaps better and more firmly than I do – that the Will of the people is something paramount and thus irresistible and is bound to prevail in the end, even if it takes longer than one would desire.

MP

Monday, September 14, 2009

Thailand's broader cooperation in East Asia and Pacific

September 14, 2009
By Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation


THANKS TO former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad's effort in the 1990s, East Asia has become a distinctive geographical entity, often drawing wrath from within and abroad. Previously, East Asia was known as the region of newly industrialised countries - of China, Japan, Korea and occasionally Taiwan and Hong Kong.

These so-called "East Asian" countries were perceived as a region with great economic potential as they worked hard and were growth-oriented. However, too much bickering among China, Japan and Korea, became a problem. If they could only stick and act together as a group like other countries, their economic as well as political and security bargaining power would increase greatly.

Two decades later, East Asia is in vogue again with better cooperation and mutual trust. Fortunately, this time it is less focused on race - something that used to dominate the debate on East Asians working together. When proposed by Malaysia, focus was often on the most suitable forms of regional architecture. The ongoing global financial crisis and increased interdependence has opened up the minds of leaders and economists throughout the region - to the conclusion that only through inclusiveness, unhindered trade, investment and shared economic planning and strategies can they overcome future challenges together.

Thailand is one such country, struggling to fit into the fast-changing global and regional environment. When the country was the darling of the world's economic miracle in the 1980's with more than two digit growth, the Bangkok elite thought Thailand would be the key economic catalyst in the 21st century in this part of the world. A decade later, the 'tom yum disease' had all but crippled the country's economy and social well-being. Residue of economic catastrophe can still be seen throughout the metropolitan area.

When the idea of East Asian economic cooperation was debated through the 1990s, Thailand, as an economic high performer, took a laid-back position. Only the voices of Singapore and Indonesia were frequently heard.

Singapore, as a free-trade nation, would reject any idea suggesting exclusivity as it would raise the eyebrows of key trading partners such as the US or Europe. Washington was on a warpath against this idea, dragging Japan to its side. Like Singapore, Indonesia shared a similar sentiment on top of Jakarta's usual scepticism for any proposal coming from Kuala Lumpur. These templates - but better camouflaged - remain today.

Situated in the centre of the Asian continent, Thailand views itself as a land-bridge between South Asia and Northeast Asia, linking the region's greatest economies and land mass. For decades, Thai policy and decision-makers were content to be in this position. They failed to reach out to all. Instead, they looked towards the North (China) and the East (Japan).

In late 1987, Thailand was among the first Asean countries to tap India's economic potential, but it was done in superficial ways. So while India has risen in recent years, Thailand is still a drop in the bucket.

When former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra came to power in early 2001, the country's economy and diplomacy were quickly transformed and based almost entirely on his idiosyncratic leadership. He envisaged Thailand as a key regional player and did all the public relations stunts himself. The overly ambitious Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) was launched with fanfare shortly after. This new pan-Asia talk-shop covers more than half the world's population from the east of Suez to the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Thaksin viewed himself as a new Asian leader not the Asean one, who could unite Asia and its strength. Apparently, he overlooked Asean at his own peril. But within Asean he still managed to forge close ties with the leaders of Singapore and Cambodia.

As Thailand's international image inflated out of proportion, Thaksin prematurely declared in 2003 a Thai candidate to compete for the UN top post to succeed Kofi Annan. He saw the move as a way to shore up the country's international profile and his leadership. The failed attempt cost Thai tax-payers tonnes of money, coupled with unfulfilled diplomatic commitments pledged around the world.

Thailand's attention to East Asian and Pacific cooperation has been further marred by unsettling domestic turmoil since 2006. The aborted Asean+3 and Asean+6 summits dented Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's youthful and untested leadership.

The Thai role in Asean was also greatly affected. Thai democratic development - once Asean's pride and the beacon of regional democracy - was lampooned.

Following the successful Phuket meeting in July and prevailing political calmness, the Asean chair has seized the opportunity to apply full attention to all pending issues, especially those that would feature in the upcoming Cha-am summit in late October.

One is the future direction of the East Asia community and beyond. Abhisit has yet to express his views on this crucial issue.

Thailand believes there is no single economic cooperative structure that can care for and fulfil the objectives of this vast and diverse region. Therefore, the idea of inclusiveness and openness is an attractive one. Additional multi-layer forms of cooperation, without sacrificing the existing framework, could be a way out.

While Bangkok supports openness and inclusiveness, other Asean members are more cautious - fearing too many players would diminish the Asean profile. Some sort of selective inclusiveness could be in the offing.

As an Asean member, Thailand values Asean centrality. Its four-decade Asean experience taught the Thais one valuable lesson - that Asean centrality can only be maintained when Asean stays engaged. Whenever the grouping faces an imminent crisis, such as the one in Cambodia during 1978-1992, Asean centrality is unquestionable.

In constructing the future regional framework in East Asia and Pacific, which includes Asean+6 (China, Japan, Korea, Australia, India and New Zealand), Thailand would like to see more input from concerned countries.

At this juncture, the modus operandi seems to be the Asean+3 process, considered the model since its inception in 1997 as key to East Asian community building. Other regional-building organisations have yet to challenge this long-held process as the most suitable design.

Recently Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed an Asia Pacific Community (APC), which has stirred up a hornets' nest inside Asean. After talks among leaders and senior officials in Asean, resistance has somewhat subsided.

But many questions linger as to what is the exact role of Asean in this new regional architecture. Each Asean member has its own mind when it comes to a clear role of Asean. Rudd will have ample time to explain at the Asean summit and Apec leaders meeting.

Rudd and Abhisit will share the same panel on this topic in November, at the Apec CEO summit, Singapore.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Suthep might not run in by-election

30/06/2009
BangkokPost.com

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said on Tuesday he might not stand for re-election in his home constituency in Surat Thani province if the Election Commission disqualifies him as an MP for holding shares in companies which have a concession from the state.

Mr Suthep said he was getting older and there were many ways he could continue his political activities without having to contest a by-election.

If he were disqualified he could continue to hold the position of deputy prime minister, which does not have to be filled by an elected MP. He had no plans to get out of politics.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Thaksin in Cambodia, invited to play golf by Hun Sen


Thaksin 'on the brink of return'

Ex-PM calls up supporters in Chiang Rai from Cambodia

February 24, 2008
The Nation (Thailand)

Thaksin Shinawatra appears to be on the verge of returning to Thailand after living in exile since he was deposed as prime minister in the September 19, 2006 coup.

Thaksin reportedly arrived in neighbouring Cambodia on Friday at the invitation of Prime Minister Hun Sen for a round of golf. About 1,000 of his supporters yesterday attended an event in the northern province of Chiang Rai, dubbed "We Miss Thaksin".

During the affair, in a downtown area, Thaksin phoned in and announced before the crowd that he would know by next Tuesday exactly when to stage his comeback.

Thaksin also told his supporters in Chiang Rai that he had no plan to stay in Thailand for a long period after returning because he has to travel overseas for business.

Thaksin also extended his congratulations to Chiang Rai residents during his phone-in, as Yongyuth Tiyapairat - a Chiang Rai politician - was recently elected as the president of Parliament.

According to TNN, a cable-TV station, Yongyuth was reportedly with Thaksin during the phone-in.

Sources from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) said Thaksin would stay in Cambodia until today before heading to Beijing, his next stop. Thaksin's arrival in Phnom Penh came ahead of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's planned official visit to the neighbouring country on March 3. Speculation was rife that Thaksin, who chose Samak to head the PPP, which won the most seats in the December general election, could have a meeting with Samak in Phnom Penh. However, Samak said he was not aware of Thaksin's trip and he would have to be informed in advance if there would be such a meeting.

Phromsak Saempoh, chairman of the Northern Grassroots Network, who organised the gathering in Chiang Rai for Thaksin, said no one had been paid to attend.

He said if Thaksin really returned to his home town in the adjacent province of Chiang Mai, some 20,000 members of his group would rally to welcome the former premier.

According to the organiser, Confederation for Democracy leader Weng Tojirakarn and Thaksin's son Panthongthae were among those invited for yesterday's gathering.

Some Thaksin supporters said they heard the ousted premier might fly in directly to his home-town province of Chiang Mai, bypassing Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Surapong Towichakchaikul, a Chiang Mai MP under the PPP banner, said Thaksin's supporters wished they could welcome Thaksin by Songkran, the Thai New Year, in April.

Sources said residents of Chiang Mai had started to prepare for Thaksin's homecoming as rumours abound that he could be back sooner than expected.

Thaksin also reportedly got his red diplomatic passport back after his former legal adviser, Noppadon Pattama, was named foreign minister.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Thaksinomics, Redux

February 22, 2008
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA

Thailand's new Prime Minister this week gave some indication of his government's planned economic policies and it's back to the future. By promising to revive Keynesian economics, Samak Sundaravej is hearkening back to "Thaksinomics," the populist agenda that endeared former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to rural voters. While politically that might seem a savvy move, economically speaking it's a big mistake.

Mr. Samak has yet to lay out all the details of his plan, but here's what we know so far: On Monday, he delivered a policy statement to Parliament outlining his government's priorities. Citing the subprime crisis and rising inflationary pressures, Mr. Samak wants to lay the "groundwork for stable and sustainable growth," shift Thailand's manufacturing sector to higher-end products and attract foreign investment.

By using words such as "growth" and "foreign investment," Mr. Samak is distinguishing himself from the former military junta, which had a distinct disdain for both. But Mr. Samak's first order of business isn't serious structural economic reform. Like Mr. Thaksin's administration, the Samak government would prime the fiscal pump by expanding state health-care coverage, giving money to "village funds," building public housing, backing megainfrastructure projects, providing soft loans to small and medium-sized businesses, and imposing a debt moratorium for farmers. And that's just a partial list of his spending plans.

It's hard to estimate how much Mr. Thaksin spent on his Keynesian adventure, given that some of those projects weren't included on the federal government's balance sheet but, rather, funded through state banks. Rough estimates put Thaksinomics outlays around 100 billion baht ($3 billion) a year. Mr. Samak has mentioned "mega-projects" of 500 billion baht. That's big money for a central government whose total projected revenue for 2007 was 1.5 trillion baht.


The irony here is that Thaksinomics was never a great success. Mr. Thaksin's hodge-podge spending projects didn't do much to upgrade the country's export sector, attract foreign investment or boost overall economic growth. Rather, Thailand under Thaksin -- like much of the rest of Asia -- enjoyed the flood of investment dollars created by the U.S. Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan and the upswing in export demand from the U.S., Europe and the rest of the region. As Thai exports soared, so did tax revenue.

That's not the external environment that Thailand faces today. The Fed may again be flooding the world with dollars, but as the Prime Minister notes, inflationary pressures are mounting. Thailand's consumer confidence is recovering after the military junta's economic mismanagement but it is still fragile. Foreign investment in Thailand lags that of its Asian peers. Couple that with shaky financial markets, and there's no guarantee Thailand will enjoy robust investment or buoyant export demand this year.

Mr. Samak's newly elected government would serve its constituents better if it kept its spending promises constrained and focused on making Thailand an easier place to do business. It could start by cutting corporate and personal income taxes, getting rid of all capital controls and reinvigorating free trade talks. Rather than borrowing money to increase the government deficit, Mr. Samak could aim for a balanced budget.

It's possible that the Prime Minister wants to cement his government's popularity with its rural voter base before turning to reform. But as any Japanese politician could tell you, once a government starts down a road of handouts and infrastructure spending promises, it's hard to turn back.