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| The US won't need this stuff back |
Tuesday, 27 March 2012
Written by David Brown
Asia Sentinel
The Vietnamese regime’s posture on human rights will remain a weighty burden on the US-Vietnam relationship. There’s a new generation of politically savvy Vietnamese-Americans who not only care about such things but can swing quite a few votes. Particularly in this American election year, Hanoi’s repression of domestic dissidents can lob a spanner into the bilateral security and trade dialogues.
Big oil companies have been put on notice that if they want a piece of the action in China, they’d better get out of Vietnam. Britain’s BP divested its Vietnam properties in 2010, and early this year the second-biggest American oil company, Conoco-Phillips, sold its US$1 billion stake in Vietnam to a French firm. Exxon-Mobil, however, says it’s intent on developing a recent strike offshore central Vietnam.
An alliance of convenience becomes a strategic relationship
Particularly in this American election year, human rights issues will test the durability of the rapprochement between Vietnam and the United States – former enemies now seemingly the best of friends.
Officials from Hanoi and Washington get together frequently these days. An eavesdropper on the bilateral contacts might conclude that the unpleasantness of two generations ago, what Vietnamese refer to as “the American war,” was just a speed bump on the road to intimacy.
Indeed, the officials have plenty to talk about. They are tending a lengthening list of shared interests that include booming two-way trade, the elaboration of a military partnership, US support for public health, education and environmental protection initiatives and a pact that could clear the way for transfers of American nuclear technology.
When the toasting begins after a day of negotiations, there are euphoric references to the ‘remarkable development’ of cooperation between Hanoi and Washington.
What’s remarkable isn’t that old enemies are now friends, but that an alliance of convenience has been dressed up and presented as a ‘strategic relationship.’
Two objectives have guided Hanoi’s re-engagement with the US:
- The regime’s ability to deliver sustained economic growth to Vietnam’s citizenry depends importantly on easy access to the American market and investment capital, and
- US military cooperation will cause China to think twice about pursuing expansionist ambitions in the South China Sea.