Hun Sen surprised that the opposition wants to beat the CPP

Tuesday, April 10, 2007
By Kong Sothanarith and Soren Seelow
Cambodge Soir
Unofficial translation from French by Tola Ek

Click here to read Cambodge Soir’s original article in French

Yesterday, the prime minister was surprised that the opposition parties had only one idea in mind: to beat the CPP in 2008. He was making this comment on Sam Rainsy’s plan to forge an alliance with the Norodom Ranariddh Party and several other small parties for the upcoming election.

The prime minister strongly reacted yesterday, during the yearly conference of the Ministry of Agriculture, to the SRP plan to take the lead to form a large alliance to defeat the CPP during next year’s general election. Strong from its undeniable 2nd place position in the recent commune election (25.14% of popular votes, as compared to the CPP’s 61.1%), the SRP dreams of a large Democratic Movement in which the Norodom Ranariddh party (7.9%) would join the SRP, along with other small political parties, such as Prince Thomico’s and other NGOs.

Two alliance attempts between Sam Rainsy and Prince Ranariddh failed in the past, but these alliances were formed after the 1998 and 2003 general elections, rather than before the election as the current case seems to indicate. After declaring that he will no longer be caught short, the opposition leader once again reaches out to his “worst ally,” convinced that the election math will lead them down a royal path in 2008.

“It reminds me of 1979…”

Reaffirming the strength of his alliance with the Funcinpec, the largest loser of the commune election (5.58%), Hun Sen was surprised yesterday that the opposition had only one thought in mind: to take over his position in 2008. According to Hun Sen, these parties are obsessed by power, whereas the CPP would be foremost preoccupied by the country’s development. But, if the opposition is displaying too much ambition, Hun Sen warned, the CPP also could show that it know how to fight for power. “Manifestly, they only think about toppling the CPP, every day, whereas for us, we only think about increasing the number of fish and tree species,” Hun Sen declared by claiming to be a true green believer. “They invite the democrats and the royalists to form an alliance. I say that this is already déjà vu: 1998, 2003 and again today. They only think about winning over the CPP. If they forget one day about toppling the CPP, would they be struck by lightning? The improvement of people’s livelihood should be thought of. This reminds me of 1979, when Pol Pot and other non polpotists, supported by foreign countries, gathered to topple the CPP. But if they only think about this, we will think about fighting back. We do not mark someone as our enemy, but they do. In this case, we must reply back starting now, just like when we obliterated the Khmer Rouge.”

The bloc strategy

In a letter sent to Cambodge Soir, Sam Rainsy returns to the results of the last election which make him think that his Democratic Movement could aim at victory in 2008. “Because the wagers as well as the pressures are different depending on whether it is about the commune election or the general election, the CPP is clearly dominant in the first type of election (61% of popular votes in 2002 as well as in 2007) than in the second type (41% in 1998; 47% in 2003). A drawback of the ruling party could be expected at the 2008 general election. We prudently predict its number to 49% of the total vote, this is 2% higher than what it obtained in 2003,” the SRP President explained. In the hypothesis of a competition between ‘only two main political poles” – the CPP on one end and an alliance led by the SRP on the other end – “this second main pole would mathematically receive 51% of the vote.” In the ideal scenario by the opposition, if the CPP would obtain less than 50% of the vote, and if its ally, the Funcinpec left the coalition to join the Democratic Movement – which the opposition dreams of – to win. Irony of history: this large alliance would replace a Funcinpec party which is on its way to oblivion (5.58% of vote), while at the same time, it still is the central part of the political game since it would also assure the absolute majority for the CPP.

The mountain

In order to justify his belief, Sam Rainsy recalls that the CPP had already lost in 1993 election: 38% to 45% of vote to the “then-large Funcinpec.” According to Sam Rainsy, this victory of a united opposition is plausible since there is still “a large pool of those who did not vote.” The abstention from the vote kept on increasing with each election: 4% in 1993, 6% in 1998, 13% in 2002, 17% in 2003 and 35% this year. To believe Sam Rainsy, one would only need to remobilize this portion of the voters who are deceived by the short experience with democracy, to tip over the balance of forces.

However, for Hun Sen, this improbable alliance will first need to move mountains. Formed by people with strong personalities – a charismatic opposition leader, proud of his latest election results, and members of the royal family such as Prince Ranariddh or Thomico who are not willing to give Sam Rainsy the limelight – this Movement will have a hard time functioning at its leadership, Hun Sen anticipated. “One claims to be the mountain, the core [of the alliance]. Another said that he is the sand, and that the sand is on top of the mountain. And the third one is comparing itself to grass, which is also on top of the mountain…”