By Devin T. Stewart
Posted at Policy Innovations
In this increasingly interconnected age, the role of public opinion has grown in many areas of life—from corporate valuations in the form of brands to political influence in the form of soft power. With these trends in mind, China's approach to dealing with global public opinion, be it over Tibet or Darfur, carries risks.
Symbols of control
China's style of economic diplomacy may become one of the greatest questions of our time. While the rich democratic countries attempt to pursue development strategies that are people friendly, emphasizing human rights and environmental standards, China is said to be following a strategy that is regime friendly, focusing on local practices, practical results, and infrastructure development. For this reason, some observers have argued that China's approach may be more appealing to the elite in less democratic countries in Africa and Asia.
Unfortunately, the enormous dams that China is constructing both inside its borders and in the countries where it invests may become a symbol for a flawed approach to coping with an increasingly powerful public opinion. From the Three Gorges Dam to the "Great Firewall" of Internet censors in China to the planned dams of the Mekong River, China hopes dams can provide growth and stability. For how long can China dam public opinion?
Money first, governance later
A potentially powerful dynamic playing out in China's relations with the developing world emerged during a recent trip I took to Cambodia. Looking at the potential oil and gas boom in Cambodia, my research investigated the possible impact of natural resource revenue on Cambodian society and governance.
It is widely known that China is willing to deal with authoritarian regimes, but these relationships may end up sparking a backlash against China in the developing world. As UNDP head Kemal Dervis said at a recent conference at New York's New School, the greatest threats to development may be social instability from inequality and environmental degradation, not macroeconomic stress. This sentiment was a major theme in many of my interviews in Phnom Penh.
"China is making Cambodia move backward," said Son Chhay, a Cambodian opposition party lawmaker. He explained that China's involvement with Cambodia's authoritarian regime is erasing the progress the country made in human rights and democratic development. One effect is that Western donors may have to weaken their demands for better governance just to keep up with the growing influence of Chinese investment.
During the last decade, the main source of foreign influence had been nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) working with aid donors. Now, China's presence is shifting the balance, potentially exacerbating the two risks that worry Dervis. For example, China's distaste for making aid contingent on policy indicators may worsen the already rampant corruption in Cambodia. Most observers predict that at least half of the oil and gas revenue would go into the personal bank accounts of corrupt officials.
Hydro power without people's power
"You could have a people power movement in the next two to three years if the government fails to create the million jobs needed. The youth will go to the street because they have nothing to loose," Son Chhay said. He predicts upcoming elections will fail to be democratic. Half of the population is young and unhappy with the government, and they have no memory of the genocide of Pol Pot and therefore no fear of authority. One target could be Chinese-owned businesses.
While my trip to Cambodia was to examine the impact of possible oil and gas revenue, it became clear that the planned Mekong dam and its symbolic implications were at least as important. "The big story is hydropower. Cambodia relies on the Mekong and damming will have devastating consequences on food and welfare," said a Western diplomat based in Cambodia.
Civil society groups such as Cambodia's NGO Forum are questioning the country's plan to become "the battery of Southeast Asia," especially for energy-hungry Thailand and Vietnam, with the help of Chinese state companies, which are in turn financed by Chinese state financial institutions. Without thorough and transparent social and environmental impact assessments, NGO groups worry that the dam projects in Cambodia and Laos could disrupt fish migration patterns in the Mekong River.
The coming fallout
"Cambodia's future rests on a knife's edge," as one senior economic researcher put it. The path the country will take depends on the foreign influence coming to Cambodia, he explained. If Chevron decides that the energy resources off of Cambodia's coast are worth pursuing, the American company could possibly bring more transparency and accountability to Cambodia's economy. If not, China will become the dominant source of external influence given that its total investment in the country now exceeds that of any other donor.
In the long-term, when the voice of the people is stifled, it hurts the advancement that comes through the positive interaction between civil society and corporations. Pietra Rivoli wrote about this in her book "The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy." This problem will haunt China's development strategies both within its borders and in its relations with other countries.
It seems cracks are forming in China's dams, literally and metaphorically. "China cannot survive the system it is creating," Son Chhay concluded. "I predict a crisis in China before they enter the real world."
Symbols of control
China's style of economic diplomacy may become one of the greatest questions of our time. While the rich democratic countries attempt to pursue development strategies that are people friendly, emphasizing human rights and environmental standards, China is said to be following a strategy that is regime friendly, focusing on local practices, practical results, and infrastructure development. For this reason, some observers have argued that China's approach may be more appealing to the elite in less democratic countries in Africa and Asia.
Unfortunately, the enormous dams that China is constructing both inside its borders and in the countries where it invests may become a symbol for a flawed approach to coping with an increasingly powerful public opinion. From the Three Gorges Dam to the "Great Firewall" of Internet censors in China to the planned dams of the Mekong River, China hopes dams can provide growth and stability. For how long can China dam public opinion?
Money first, governance later
A potentially powerful dynamic playing out in China's relations with the developing world emerged during a recent trip I took to Cambodia. Looking at the potential oil and gas boom in Cambodia, my research investigated the possible impact of natural resource revenue on Cambodian society and governance.
It is widely known that China is willing to deal with authoritarian regimes, but these relationships may end up sparking a backlash against China in the developing world. As UNDP head Kemal Dervis said at a recent conference at New York's New School, the greatest threats to development may be social instability from inequality and environmental degradation, not macroeconomic stress. This sentiment was a major theme in many of my interviews in Phnom Penh.
"China is making Cambodia move backward," said Son Chhay, a Cambodian opposition party lawmaker. He explained that China's involvement with Cambodia's authoritarian regime is erasing the progress the country made in human rights and democratic development. One effect is that Western donors may have to weaken their demands for better governance just to keep up with the growing influence of Chinese investment.
During the last decade, the main source of foreign influence had been nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) working with aid donors. Now, China's presence is shifting the balance, potentially exacerbating the two risks that worry Dervis. For example, China's distaste for making aid contingent on policy indicators may worsen the already rampant corruption in Cambodia. Most observers predict that at least half of the oil and gas revenue would go into the personal bank accounts of corrupt officials.
Hydro power without people's power
"You could have a people power movement in the next two to three years if the government fails to create the million jobs needed. The youth will go to the street because they have nothing to loose," Son Chhay said. He predicts upcoming elections will fail to be democratic. Half of the population is young and unhappy with the government, and they have no memory of the genocide of Pol Pot and therefore no fear of authority. One target could be Chinese-owned businesses.
While my trip to Cambodia was to examine the impact of possible oil and gas revenue, it became clear that the planned Mekong dam and its symbolic implications were at least as important. "The big story is hydropower. Cambodia relies on the Mekong and damming will have devastating consequences on food and welfare," said a Western diplomat based in Cambodia.
Civil society groups such as Cambodia's NGO Forum are questioning the country's plan to become "the battery of Southeast Asia," especially for energy-hungry Thailand and Vietnam, with the help of Chinese state companies, which are in turn financed by Chinese state financial institutions. Without thorough and transparent social and environmental impact assessments, NGO groups worry that the dam projects in Cambodia and Laos could disrupt fish migration patterns in the Mekong River.
The coming fallout
"Cambodia's future rests on a knife's edge," as one senior economic researcher put it. The path the country will take depends on the foreign influence coming to Cambodia, he explained. If Chevron decides that the energy resources off of Cambodia's coast are worth pursuing, the American company could possibly bring more transparency and accountability to Cambodia's economy. If not, China will become the dominant source of external influence given that its total investment in the country now exceeds that of any other donor.
In the long-term, when the voice of the people is stifled, it hurts the advancement that comes through the positive interaction between civil society and corporations. Pietra Rivoli wrote about this in her book "The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy." This problem will haunt China's development strategies both within its borders and in its relations with other countries.
It seems cracks are forming in China's dams, literally and metaphorically. "China cannot survive the system it is creating," Son Chhay concluded. "I predict a crisis in China before they enter the real world."
8 comments:
DAM CHINESE CHINOI CHINK KACHONG!
That is shit load of crock. China has been trading with us for centuries now, and there is no problem whatsoever. So where is the stupid risk? As usual, Ah jkout (like Devin T. Stewart) is just here to stir up problem for Cambodia and our Asians brothers.
Hey Viet troller/pimp/parasite/plunderer @2:32AM,
You Viet troller/intruder admitted yourself to be a Viet-born and national here on KI-Media.
You Viet troller/intruder has been dumping tons of trashes here on KI-Media over God knows how long.
You Viet troller/intruder pretends to be Cambodian/Khmer speaking up for Cambodian/Khmer and giving Cambodian/Khmer a bad name.
You Viet troller/intruder trashes everybody here on KI-Media calling Cambodian/Khmer all sort of names to boast, to sabotage and to destroy Cambodian/Khmer for the benefit of you Viet intruder/plunderer....
Now, you Viet trash/troller/intruder @2:32AM calls that a debate?
Does history and now a live example of you Viet trash/troller here on KI-Media tell Cambodian/Khmer anything about the Viet's trustworthiness?
Cambodian/Khmer and the whole world know the true colors of you Viet troller/intruder/invader/plunderer full well already.
In plain and simple English, now, and again what part of you "getting the fuck out of KI-Media" don't you freaking Viet troller/intruder/pimp/plunderer understand huh?
"You could have a people power movement in the next two to three years if the government fails to create the million jobs needed. The youth will go to the street because they have nothing to loose," Son Chhay said. He predicts upcoming elections will fail to be democratic. Half of the population is young and unhappy with the government, and they have no memory of the genocide of Pol Pot and therefore no fear of authority. One target could be Chinese-owned businesses.
This was what happened during the Lon Nol [twice in the Capital city of Phnom Penh and in Battambang], when people target Chinese-Khmer owned business which damaged more priviate properties, law and orders when protestors became thugs and in return the price of goods doubled instead of solving problem of price rocketing.
If youth are not happy with their current leader then they should turn up in mass to vote as ballot is secret paper and no one else but themselves would know who their vote is going to or unless they want to let people know in advance their choice of leader.
Take to the street for the purpose of inflation and target Chinese-Khmer owned business will not solve anything at all.
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He explained that China's involvement with Cambodia's authoritarian regime is erasing the progress the country made in human rights and democratic development
When USA involvement with Lon Nol, the country was not only go backward but many casualties and displaced people and finally falled in the hand of KR.
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Cambodia relies on the Mekong and damming will have devastating consequences on food and welfare," said a Western diplomat based in Cambodia
What will Cambodia benefit for not having dam and hydro power on the mekong if countries upstream have already blocked the mekong for their hydro-power.
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It seems cracks are forming in China's dams, literally and metaphorically. "China cannot survive the system it is creating," Son Chhay concluded. "I predict a crisis in China before they enter the real world
China has enjoyed the windfall from foreign investments for the last decade when country open itself to the world. Now, they start to regulate and reform their tax system which may be seen as not really attractive to investors but still viable to certain extend for offshor companies.
Well, Ah Son Chhay is a stupid idiot. Who in their right mind will want to follow a loser and become loser themselves.
Follow Zimbabweans People, they ousted Mugabe, 28 years dictator.
Don't be silly, we'll never follow the poorer country than us. That is definitely walking backward.
"One effect is that Western donors may have to weaken their demands for better governance just to keep up with the growing influence of Chinese investment."
This is already happening - The EU is still funding the KRT despite the fact that audits show mismanagemment and corruption.
"For example, China's distaste for making aid contingent on policy indicators may worsen the already rampant corruption in Cambodia."
Again it is already happening. Hun Sen always braggs about the fact that China never puts any conditions when they give aid, and corruption continues and gets worse.
"Most observers predict that at least half of the oil and gas revenue would go into the personal bank accounts of corrupt officials."
This is a guarantee.
"What will Cambodia benefit for not having dam and hydro power on the mekong if countries upstream have already blocked the mekong for their hydro-power."
If China dams the mekong it means less water flowing to cambodia, meaning less water for crops and for people and their farm animals to live. If Cambodia dams the mekong, there will be even less water, animals will die, crops will fail, there will be massive drought, people go hungry, Cambodia goes down the toilet.
"You could have a people power movement in the next two to three years if the government fails to create the million jobs needed. The youth will go to the street because they have nothing to loose,"
This is the only way the CPP and Hun Sen will be gotten rid of - I would rather not see violence, but I see no alternative.
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