Sam Rainsy: Election Results Adjusted for Fraud Give Fewer Seats to CPP

Sam Rainsy's letter as published in The Cambodia Daily, August 12, 2008

Election Results Adjusted for Fraud Give Fewer Seats to CPP

In "Opposition Parties Reiterate National Assembly Boycott Threat" (August 9-10, page 3), you mentioned figures about the election results adjusted by SRP for irregularities.

NEC's provisional figures published on August 9, 2008, reiterated that the CPP won 3.49 million votes and 90 seats versus 2.05 million votes and 31 seats for the combined opposition: SRP, Human Rights Party and Norodom Ranariddh Party.

''The true results of the election" that I presented -- 77 seats for the CCP, 35 for the SRP, seven for the HRP and two each for Funcinpec and the NRP -- were based on taking back from the CCP votes that were fraudulently collected after CPP commune chiefs had issued forged 1018 registration forms to its supporters. Another adjustment was made taking into account the fact that a significant portion of the electorate identified as non-CPP supporters, had been disenfranchised.

We have made our calculations based on two hypotheses.

1- Our minimum hypothesis is based on the assumption that:

a) An average of 10 forged 1018 forms were given out in the vicinity of each of the 15,254 polling stations, making a total of 152,540 forged forms and inflating the CPP votes by the same amount.

b) An average of 50 non-CPP supporters were disenfranchised at each polling station, meaning that a total of 762,700 voters nationwide were prevented from voting for non-CPP parties. Many independent observers acknowledge that up to 10 percent of the 8.1-million-strong electorate were prevented from voting.

2- Our maximum hypothesis is based on the assumption that:

a) An average of 65 forged 1018 forms were given out in the vicinity of each polling stations, making a total of 991,510 forged forms and inflating the CPP votes by the same amount (see July 29 SRP statement "What election observers did not see in a rigged election"). We now have proof that the 1018 forms were methodically and systematically issued by the CPP local authorities nationwide. This maneuver was conducted on an unprecedented scale.

b) An average of 65 non-CPP supporters were disenfranchised at each polling station, meaning that a total of 991,510 voters nationwide were prevented from voting for non-CPP parties (see the above-mentioned SRP statement). This figure is to be compared with the 2.1 million registered voters who did not or could not vote at the July 27 poll. Based on the much smaller number of people (less than one million) who did not vote at the previous national elections, we can infer that half of the above 2.1 million people wanted to vote but could not because they were disenfranchised. This led to the lowest voter turnout for a national election since the poll organized by the United Nations in 1993. The three opposition parties are now collecting petitions throughout the country from those voters who deplored the loss of their voting rights.

For each of the two hypotheses, we have revised the election results by:

a) Taking back from the CPP votes associated with forged 1018 forms.

b) Increasing, for the main non-CPP parties (SRP, HRP, NRP, Funcinpec), the number of their votes by the number of disenfranchised voters, using an allocation key that reflects the actual breakdown of non-CPP votes based on figures published by the NEC.
The minimum hypothesis shows the following results:

• CPP: 3.34 million votes; 78 seats
• SRP: 1.75 million votes; 34 seats
• HRP: 0.52 million votes; 7 seats
• NRP: 0.45 million votes; 2 seats
• Funcinpec: 0.40 million votes; 2 seats.

Total CPP + Funcinpec: 3.74 million votes; 80 seats
Total SRP + HRP + NRP: 2.72 million votes; 43 seats
The maximum hypothesis shows the following results:

• CPP: 2.50 million votes; 67 seats
• SRP: 1.87 million votes; 41 seats
• HRP: 0.56 million votes; 7 seats
• NRP: 0.48 million votes; 3 seats
• Funcinpec: 0.43 million votes; 5 seats.

Total CPP + Funcinpec: 2.93 million votes; 72 seats
Total SRP + HRP + NRP: 2.91 million votes; 51 seats

Furthermore, CPP lawmaker Cheam Yeap's statement about the "three opposition parties" having "representatives" in the National Election Committee is simply not true.

In all cases NEC members had to resign from their original parties; therefore, to say that NEC has political party members as its representatives is a mistake. In any case, no NEC members came from NRP and HRP and only two members were originally from SRP, versus five from CPP and two from Funcinpec, making a total of nine.

What's more, the representatives originally from SRP had actually protested in writing against NEC's plan to unfairly delete voters' names, but they were overruled, which is hardly surprising given they were by far in the minority.

Finally, Cheam Yeap advocated that the NEC's proceedings were observed for irregularities at all levels by international observers and party representatives. In this connection, what does this CPP official think about the assessment by the EU Election Observation Mission that the Cambodian elections of 2008 "fell short of key international standards"?

Sam Rainsy
SRP President