Saturday, November 14, 2009

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Much at Stake for Thai Premier over Cambodia Row

Analysis by Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Nov 13 (IPS) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva faces his toughest foreign policy challenge as his first year in office draws to a close. At stake is this South-east Asian kingdom’s standing in a regional bloc.

So far the worsening relationship between Thailand and its eastern neighbour Cambodia has only produced limited public pressure from government leaders in the countries that belong to the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Such response comes in the wake of Cambodia’s brazen behaviour, challenging a defining principle of the 10-member regional grouping—where non-interference in the domestic affairs of a fellow ASEAN member is considered sacred.

Phnom Penh has done the very opposite by the warm embrace Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has given to former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra since Tuesday. Thaksin—whose popular elected government was ousted in a 2006 military coup and who lives in exile to avoid a two-year jail term after a Thai court found him guilty in a conflict of interest case—was welcome by Hun Sen as a very close friend.

On Thursday, Thaksin delivered a speech in Phnom Penh in his capacity as Hun Sen’s newly appointed economic advisor. The fugitive former premier has also used his stay in Cambodia to attack the Abhisit government and to meet scores of his visiting supporters from Thailand.

After initially accusing Cambodia of interfering in Thailand’s domestic affairs, Bangkok turned the diplomatic heat by recalling its ambassador in Cambodia. It then revoked an agreement between the two countries to explore oil and gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand and later declared that all ties between the two countries will be reviewed.

By the week’s end, Cambodia, which recalled its ambassador in Thailand following Bangkok’s move, had fuelled more tension. Phnom Penh declared a senior Thai diplomat in the capital persona non grata and then accused a Thai national of spying.

The Hun Sen administration has not buckled under pressure from its richer neighbour in another, more politically significant, area. It pooh-poohed a request by Bangkok to have Thaksin extradited, saying provocatively in a letter capitalised in some parts for emphasis that the nemesis of the Abhisit government had been forced out of power although he had been "OVERWHELMINGLY and DEMOCRATICALLY elected by the Thai people."

Cambodia’s reference to elections stems from the manner the coalition government Abhist heads was formed. It emerged after a controversial court ruling last December that saw the collapse of an elected government allied to Thaksin. Subsequently Thailand’s powerful military brokered a deal— including enticing parliamentarians with money—for the new coalition to win a vote in parliament than be endorsed at a general election.

Hun Sen’s dismissive attitude towards Thailand’s concerns—that Thaksin would use Cambodia as a launching pad for his political comeback—has only prompted muted appeals in some ASEAN capitals for a solution through bilateral means.

It comes as Abhisit raised the tempo on Friday in response to Cambodia’s spying charges and the expulsion of the Thai diplomat. He told reporters here that it was aimed to provoke a "violent response" from Bangkok and "the Thai government didn’t fall for their trick," according to The Nation, an English-language daily here.

So far Singapore has expressed worry twice, the most recent on Tuesday, when Foreign Minister George Yeo told journalists that he was concerned and wanted both parties "to find a way to resolve their problems."

Yet when asked if Cambodia was violating the ASEAN charter by interfering in a neighbouring country’s affairs, he responded diplomatically: "I don’t want to comment on that."

A meeting on Thursday night in the city-state between Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono did not have concerns about the Cambodia-Thai diplomatic row on the agenda. The two leaders "did not discuss the conflict between Cambodia and Thailand," reports Bernama, Malaysia’s national news agency.

ASEAN—whose members include Brunei, Burma (or Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam— has during its 42-year-history religously guarded the principle of non- interference. Even military-ruled Burma, the bloc’s most troublesome member, has enjoyed long spells of protection.

The timing of the plummeting relations with Cambodia could not have come at a worse time for Abhisit, who at 45 years and barely a year in office is relatively a greenhorn when ranked against some of the other regional leaders. For this year has the Thai premier as the head of ASEAN, which began a journey though 2009 to transform itself into becoming a more cohesive, rules-based regional bloc by 2015.

Abhisit, in fact, used two ASEAN summits hosted in Thailand this year to cut an image of a modern, forward-looking leader at a time of ASEAN’s transformation. He used his speeches to express his commitment towards a democratic culture and human rights. Groundbreaking exchanges between leaders of civil society and ASEAN leaders at the two summits earned Abhisit credit from non-governmental groups.

Yet not all ASEAN governments, it seems, are impressed by such a record. The interaction between ASEAN leaders and civil society representatives that Abhisit spearheaded remains a sore point.

Bangkok is being faulted for trying to get ahead rather than conforming to an ASEAN tradition of toeing a common line and sticking to a common message.

"There was agreement before the second ASEAN summit that all governments will have a say in choosing the civil society representatives, but then just before the meeting the Thais said their foreign ministry will not get involved in the selection process," said a South-east Asian diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This was embarrassing to the other countries who stuck to the initial agreement."

Abhisit’s efforts to impress his regional peers about his credentials to be a voice of democracy and human rights in the region is not going down well either. "Thailand is not Indonesia, where the current leader has been elected twice," added the diplomat. "Thailand’s freedom of expression record is also under scrutiny because of growing Internet censorship."

ASEAN’s lack of a dispute-settling mechanism adds another hurdle. The traditional ASEAN way of solving disagreements by leaders of the region shaping a dialogue will not be easy for the bloc’s chair, given Abhisit’s role in the ongoing dispute.

Little wonder why ASEAN secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan is making a desperate appeal. "The dispute is no longer an internal affair of Thailand or Cambodia," the former Thai foreign minister was quoted as having told reporters in Singapore, according to a report in the ‘Bangkok Post’. "It is a conflict between two member countries of ASEAN and could affect the organisation’s plan to become an economic community in the near future."

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Did you all read this?

This message shown clearly that Abullshit is ignorant and ashame.

"Yet not all ASEAN governments, it seems, are impressed by such a record. The interaction between ASEAN leaders and civil society representatives that Abhisit spearheaded remains a sore point."

Bangkok is being faulted for trying to get ahead rather than conforming to an ASEAN tradition of toeing a common line and sticking to a common message.

"There was agreement before the second ASEAN summit that all governments will have a say in choosing the civil society representatives, but then just before the meeting the Thais said their foreign ministry will not get involved in the selection process," said a South-east Asian diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This was embarrassing to the other countries who stuck to the initial agreement."

Abhisit’s efforts to impress his regional peers about his credentials to be a voice of democracy and human rights in the region is not going down well either. "Thailand is not Indonesia, where the current leader has been elected twice," added the diplomat. "Thailand’s freedom of expression record is also under scrutiny because of growing Internet censorship."

ASEAN’s lack of a dispute-settling mechanism adds another hurdle. The traditional ASEAN way of solving disagreements by leaders of the region shaping a dialogue will not be easy for the bloc’s chair, given Abhisit’s role in the ongoing dispute.

Little wonder why ASEAN secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan is making a desperate appeal. "The dispute is no longer an internal affair of Thailand or Cambodia," the former Thai foreign minister was quoted as having told reporters in Singapore, according to a report in the ‘Bangkok Post’. "It is a conflict between two member countries of ASEAN and could affect the organisation’s plan to become an economic community in the near future."

Anonymous said...

I told you HUN SEN will nail this Abullshit buy left and right without a rest.

Remember this guy said that the balls are in HUN SEN's hands. Now you got it dumb PM..

Ly Diep said...

Lok 2:52 AM,
Yes, I did read that, but I need to ask you: Why must Cambodia embrace Thaksin ? What benefit will
Cambodia gain from doing that ?. I suggest :
Cambodia should scrap Royal Kret nominating Thaksin as Hun Sen's Economic and Cambodian Gov. Advisor and take Preah Vihear's problem to UN Security Council and to La Haye. Furthermore, Cambodia should recall the Paris Conference in order to verify the application to all agreements.
WHY CAMBODIA WILL NOT DO THAT ?
Regards,
Ly Diep

Anonymous said...

To Ly Diep, because Hun Sen and most Khmer people got enough of Thai lacking of responsibility. Thailand has been dragging the border talk too long so to accept Thaksin in Cambodia is just to show Thailand that Cambodia dares to say, dare to do and dare to responsible because Hun Sen run Cambodia while in Thailand we don't know who run Thailand? The Thai junta? The Thai PM, the Thai Justice, the Thai Queen or the Thai King run Thailand?

Ly Diep said...

Lok 10:13 AM,
You didn't answer my question.
Ly Diep