PM Hun Sen's Political Gambling or Miscalculation?

Monday, March 21, 2011
Op-Ed by Khmer Academy

However, the lack of transparency on the Eastern border demarcation, the ongoing land grabbing and forced eviction, and the mistreatment of the opposition leader are creating excessive bitterness and are putting enormous pressure on the non-partisan liberals to join the hardline nationalists.

The recent sacking of the opposition leader, Mr. Sam Rainsy, from the National Assembly has raised many eyebrows among the so-called non-partisan liberals, who have until now advocated non-violent solutions to resolve the nation political and social issues. The sacking, which is widely seen as unjust and politically motivated, couldn’t have come at a worse time when the government of many Arab countries are bracing for widespread people rebellions.

Not so long ago, Prime Minister Hun Sen publicly stated that he wanted the opposition not just weakened but dead. It is unclear how he intends to achieve his wish, and if he even has the means to carry it out. However, one thing we are all clear about is no matter what the government do, the opposition will never die. The Prime Minister is making a grave mistake if he thinks that he can marginalize or silence the opposition by barring Mr. Rainsy from politics.

What PM Hun Sen should worry is not the presence, but rather the absence of Mr. Rainsy from politics. Most political analysts or observers would agree that Mr. Rainsy’s leadership and approach over the years have been very pacific, too pacific perhaps. Many nationalists would prefer to see Mr. Rainsy adopt a more aggressive stand toward the government, which includes the establishment of a government in exile or underground movement for armed confrontation.

Barring Mr. Rainsy from politics will have unpredictable and devastating consequences for the government and the country. If and as Mr. Rainsy fades away from his current role, a new generation of young leaders will definitely emerge to replace him. Any young leader at the helm of the opposition is likely more keen to take the risks and pursue a more aggressive path.

PM Hun Sen should also realize that his government has managed to maintain the current level of stability in the country mainly because up to now the so-called non-partisan liberals, predominantly consist of young, educated, intellectual and professional, have not yet given reason to numerous appeals by the hardline nationalists to organize and stage social unrests.

However, the lack of transparency on the Eastern border demarcation, the ongoing land grabbing and forced eviction, and the mistreatment of the opposition leader are creating excessive bitterness and are putting enormous pressure on the non-partisan liberals to join the hardline nationalists.

The current social uprising in the Arab countries definitely creates a favourable condition for the opposition. In the coming weeks and months, the opposition will have several key options to evaluate for its future and the future of the country. As for the government, it would be wise and prudent to revisit their decision, and consider the reinstatement of Mr. Rainsy’s parliamentary status and rights while they still can. In the present situation, the Royal Palace is probably the best venue for the government and the opposition to settle their political differences.