Guy Taylor
World Politics Review
The brief flare-up of fighting between Thai and Cambodian troops that killed 10 people last month was largely portrayed as a dispute over which country rightfully controls a Hindu-Buddhist temple that has stood along the border between the two for nearly a millennium.
Close observers of the region, however, explain that the recent troop buildups and violence are actually the product of a primarily manufactured conflict driven by nationalists scrambling to maintain a hold on power in both countries.
"Basically what you have here is a war of convenience between two governments that would both benefit from a skirmish that has almost no potential to escalate into a full-blown war," says Ernest Z. Bower, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic International Studies in Washington.
Bower, who spoke with Trend Lines earlier this week, said the situation is being driven by domestic politics, predominantly in Thailand, where the government is "trying to appease the military because of recent political tensions."
An ongoing divide in Bangkok has "Yellow Shirt" nationalists supportive of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva pitted against the country's "Red Shirt" pro-democracy activists.
The military, meanwhile, is the "final arbiter of who will run Thailand," said Bower, noting that Vejjajiva is expected over the coming days to announce a schedule for Thai elections in July.
In the interim, the prime minister is not only using the border tension to "give the military a nail to hit," he's attempting to exploit it as a means of unifying politically divided Thais.
"The Red Shirts, who significantly outnumber the Yellow Shirts, may win an election if there's nothing interesting going on, so a war against Cambodia certainly helps the current government, which is part of the Yellow Shirt establishment," he said.
Similar motivation -- albeit driven by entirely different circumstances -- is at play in Cambodia, where President Hun Sen is keen on using the military action to advance the prospects of his son, Hun Manet, a Cambodian army general overseeing the troop buildup.
"Hun Manet is a West Point-trained military officer, and Hun Sen is grooming him as a successor," said Bower, who added that "[seeing] Thais kill Cambodians on the border enrages Cambodians and really helps unite them as a people. It also battens down any opposition to Hun Sen."
While such reasoning might quell fears of a wider conflict between the two countries, it has done little to keep other regional players from feeling on edge. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), whose rotating presidency is currently held by Indonesia, has attempted to exert diplomatic pressure on both countries to stop sending more troops to the disputed border region. The pressure may be superfluous though, as Bower notes that neither country "is interested in a prolonged conflict at the border."
"I think the end game is the Thai election," he said. "Although there will be continued disagreements, I think the violence will end after July or August, and we'll see this issue disappear from the headlines by the end of the year."
Ernest Bower offers regular analysis on Asia at CSIS, including this recent piece examining the likelihood that Osama bin Laden's death may enable a U.S. shift toward a new paradigm for security and growth in Asia.
14 comments:
When everything is calm, soundless, quite it is time for HUn Sen or CPP regime to file a law suit against Thailand for shelling 50,000 or rockets into Cambodia. Legal representative will step in and will not let Thai uses Cambbodia for their political gain ever again.
Khmer Poipet,
Is Thailand a military junta state?
nhiekKiri said...
How Thais Have Treated Khmers
The current Thai government should stop claiming any part of Khmer territory as theirs. In the past
Thailand stole more than enough land from Cambodia and still keeps it as theirs for good. Eventhough we, Khmers and Thais, practice the same religion and similar customs, Thais have treated Khmer worse than
they have treated animals. In the refugee camp they even tortured Khmers for some small mistake, like forgetting to wear name tags when travelling in the camp. I myself was once the victim of Thai robbers in Chum Rum Chass in 1979.
In 1981 there were some Khmers fleeing from Cambodia into Khao I Dang refugee camp during the night. If being seen by the Thai guards, they would furiously be chased,just as prey is being chased for food by some wild animals. It was OK because it was the duty of the gurads, but it
wasn’t OK when Thai guards mercilessly killed them. One
of the escapees ran into my hut. I let him sleep with my family members, faking him as one of ours. He was safe. Some who got caught were severly tortured. We could hear the scary impacts of their rifles butts being struck on the heads of those victims. A few even got killed by those brutal
Thai guards. They put their dead bodies in empty rice sacks
and buried them outside the camp.
In 1982 my family was transferred to Kamput refugee camp. One night a Khmer guy, age about 35 years old, got out of the camp. When he returned he was unfortunately spotted by the guards. They furiously chased him. The guy had nowhere to hide but to crawl underneath the wooden building where we were staying. They
violently pulled him out. Through a Khmer Surin guard, the guy humbly and tearfully begged them for mercy, but his entreaty was bluntly refused; the Khmer Surin guard was just as brutal as the real Thai guards were. They dragged
him outside of the camp, severely tortured and killed him
instantly. This is just a small account of how Thais have
treated Khmers that I myself eye-witnessed. Ah Thais are our mortal enemies just as ah Yuon are. They both want to engulf Cambodia, except that ah Yuons play a cooler, following their smart heroic leader, Ho Chi Minh’s
gaol which is now coming closer to its completion. By then we will become ah Yuons’ slaves in our own beloved motherland. It will be the final destruction of Cambodia successfully done by our reckless and irresponsible rulers!!!
Yes, It is a manufactured war by both sides. Hun Sen just wants to get reputation for himself and his son on the expense of Cambodians' lives. if Hun Sen is a true nationalist, he would not allow Vietnamese to be everywhere such as in TonleSap lake in Cambodia. Hun Sen is another Ang Chan or CheyChetha #2. Hun Sen gives land and country to Yuon in exchange for his power and that of his family .
We (Cambodian) has taken or accepting a bitter lost with our neighbors. And we understood about the history and reality. We accepted that lost! But how come Thai and Yuon still wants to chip off our lands????
Khmer Aranh,
like the stupid KR, without the law, ah siem thugs are strong, however, with the law, ah evil siem thugs will lose big time, really! that's the reality, you know! ah siem assholes are good at barking up the wrong tree. can't wait for icj to order ah siem thugs to permanent keep out of cambodia's preah vihear and its' accessway, really!
Ah Kwak and Ah Kwen, puppet of Ah Kontorp in Phnom Penh, must be hanged for not complying with the Paris treaty and allowing the massive flow of Ah Kontorp into Cambobia.
A new Kampuchea Krom will be certain if Ah Maha Kbot Cheat teang Bey is not removed.
The conflict in the west border was stemming from their ( Ah Chkuot teang Bey) act of treason.
you know act a lion or a croc, once they got the taste of blood, they want to eat it, that's exactly what ah evil siem and ah youn want to do to khmer lands, especially during the dark ages era of cambodia. but nowadays, in this modern day and age, they do that again, they have to face the law, really! i guess they have to learn somehow, you know!
they told us that ahbullshit graduated from oxford, england! ahbullshit can't even understand the meaning of the statute of limitations on preah vihear case! shame on a fake, corrupted graduate from oxfoot, england, really!
Abhisit needs a serious of translation of Hague's decree.
All Khmer people needed to understand that Preah Vihear conflicts was the Vietnamese planned to extent it power and grab more land for themselves. While 50% of the Cambodian are suffering, homeless, starvation, hardship, jobless forcing Khmer people to joined the Vietnamese training Armed Forces to get some low salary, etc. It is life and dead for all Khmer people because of Hun Sen dictatorship and Vietnamese is Hun Sen's boss.
Khmer people that supported Hun Sen are going to loss their motherland like KHMER KROM.
We know that Thai is invader want to annex Cambodia this time. Khmer must fight back but how we fight back, fight for Khmer land or fight and die for Hun Sen clan and CPP? No. If he is not dictator and puppet of Viet, we Khmers (all parties) must fight back untill the last blood. But in this circumstance, most khmers dislike dictatorship maybe think twice.
Thai think Khmer can still be pushing around like a couple centuries ago. Noway, you fight with Khmer we will fight back!! You got a slingshot we also got a slingshot. You got flying boat we got a flying boat too.
Khmer Krom people in Kampuchea Krom
hate ah Hun Sen too.I went to visit
my sister and just came back.
Khmer people everywhere in the world
hate ah Hun Sen.
Today Hun Sen is happy,tomorrow he
will be dead like ah Saddam Hussein.
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