Observers See Balance Shift With Vietnam, China

Photo: Courtesy of Bill Hayton

Sok Khemara, VOA Khmer
Washington Monday, 01 November 2010

“We have seen that the influence of China over Cambodia is enormous, and Vietnam is turning to the US.”

Cambodia's improving relationship with China has become cause for concern in Vietnam, which has long held warm ties of its own with its neighbor, according to the author of a new book.

Bill Hayton, author of “Vietnam: Rising Dragon,” told VOA Khmer in Washington the Vietnamese now fear Cambodia will become “a satellite of China.”

“So they are very, very keen to see [that] Cambodia remains a friendly country,” he said. “And obviously they are in the position to have an enormous amount of influence in Cambodia.”

Political and economic ties have so far kept Vietnam and Cambodia close, “and they want to keep that position,” said Hayton, who is also a producer for BBC World News.

In recent years, China has expanded its own political, economic and military ties with Cambodia, providing a flood of aid money in a trend that has rights activists worried.

Meanwhile, the US and Vietnam have forged stronger ties. But Vietnam also has a lot of investment in Cambodia, up 10 percent over the last year, including electricity deals, rubber plantatio ns and exports.

Observers now wonder where how these competing balances will play out.

“We have seen that the influence of China over Cambodia is enormous, and Vietnam is turning to the US,” said Chheang Vannarith, a fellow at the East-West Center and executive director of the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace. “So this is a crossroads that Cambodia faces.”

Of particular concern is how human rights issues play second to economic deals. All parties have become better economic partners, but the US still diverges with both China and Vietnam on human rights.

“When we look at the relationship between the US and Vietnam, we see that the human rights issue remains murky,” Chheang Vannarith said. “So with the issues of human rights and economic interests, we have to know how to balance which one is more important. I think that when the economy grows, maybe the human rights issue doesn't get any attention, because economic interests are larger.”

Hayton acknowledged that human rights in Vietnam have been overshadowed by economic interests.

While some Western countries have made inroads in democracy and opening society in Vietnam, he said, “the one thing that isn't changing is the fact that the Vietnamese Communist Party is still going to run the country.”

“The Western governments adjust their policies, and they will call for the release of dissidents,” he said. “But they are not going to impose sanctions on Vietnam, because they don't see [that] it would help their cause and wider interests.”

Cambodia raps Laos over Mekong dams [-Can Cambodia really bypass VN to order Laos to stop building dams on the Mekong?]

Siem Reap, Cambodia (dpa) - After facing the wrath of environmental groups earlier this week, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) member countries engaged in their own battles Thursday during a meeting of the four-member body with donors and observers.

Although the meetings were closed to media, Cambodian delegates made their frustration with what they called neighbouring Laos' lack of transparency clear outside as tensions over six proposed hydro- electric dams in a number of countries on the lower Mekong mounted.

Scientists said in May they feared Laos' proposed dams in particular could destroy fish migration and spawning, decimating the catch people in MRC member countries Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam rely on and causing irreversible environmental damage.

"We sent an official letter to Laos months ago to voice our concern and ask for an explanation, but so far we have received no answer," vice chairman of the Cambodian National Mekong Committee, Sin Niny, told Deutche Presse-Agentur dpa.

Cambodian MRC representative Lim Kean Hor said the MRC was a complicated organization which relied on cooperation from members and donors - which include energy-hungry China - to reach consensus. However, that cooperation may be fraying in some areas, he added.

"At the moment this is just an initiative by Laos. When they begin to build them we will stop them," he said, saying the MRC needed independent expert studies of environmental impact assessments.

The six dams across the Lower Mekong River are currently in the planning stages, more than a decade after they were dismissed as too costly and environmentally damaging, non-government organizations said in a press conference in Bangkok earlier this week.

At least one is believed to be the project of a powerful Lao politician's son, raising questions about whether the environment is taking a backseat to money, one environmentalist said on condition of anonymity, adding now was the time for the MRC to stand up.

"Since early 2006, Thai, Malaysian and Chinese companies have been granted permission to conduct feasibility studies for six large hydropower dams on the lower Mekong mainstream," they said in a press statement.

China delegate Biao Ling Sheng, however, urged a balance of development and conservation Thursday as that country announced continued strong funding for the MRC. "We need sustainable conservational development," he said.

In the end, however, the onus remained on the MRC to prove its role as a strong, independent forum for member countries and other interested parties to raise concerns which was transparent and had teeth, World Conservation Union representative Kate Lazarus said.

"The role of local communities should be given a higher priority by the MRC. There is some important information which is not being made public by the MRC," the Laos-based representative said.