By Sebastian Strangio
Asia Times Online
Hun Sen has also clearly welcomed the ongoing conflict with Thailand as a chance to rally support and further marginalize his political opponents.
PHNOM PENH - Fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border continued over the weekend after two agreed ceasefires broke down last week. At least 17 people have been killed and 50,000 evacuated on both sides of the border since the latest round of armed skirmishes and diplomatic salvos commenced on April 22. Some analysts now wonder whether the sustained armed clashes could eventually escalate into full-blown war.
As with past clashes, both governments have accused each other of instigating the conflict. In a statement on April 27, the Cambodian Council of Ministers denounced Thailand for its "naked and blatant aggression" that had resulted in "immense misery and suffering" for the Cambodian people. A day earlier, the Thai cabinet passed a three-point resolution authorizing "retaliatory military action" to push Cambodian troops out of disputed areas.
While it may be impossible to know who fired the first shots, many analysts agree that the conflict is an outgrowth of political turmoil in Thailand, reflecting an attempt by the Royal Thai Army to cement its position at the center of Thai politics ahead of elections set to be held by July. What is less clear are the factors driving decision-making on the other side of the border, where Prime Minister Hun Sen and his ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) have long maintained a stranglehold on domestic politics.
Since the military coup that overthrew former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006, Cambodia's strongman has played a cameo role in Thailand's unfolding domestic drama, alternatively courting and sniping at a succession of Thai leaders.
Occasionally he has taken center stage, as when he appointed Thaksin as an economic advisor in late 2009, plunging relations with Bangkok to their lowest point in years. At the time, some analysts speculated that the wily leader was backing Thaksin and his proxies in a future election, laying the groundwork for a more solid bilateral relationship further down the road.
Hun Sen has also clearly welcomed the ongoing conflict with Thailand as a chance to rally support and further marginalize his political opponents. Ou Virak, president of the Cambodian Center for Human Rights and a Phnom Penh-based political observer, said the contested Preah Vihear temple - a potent symbol, like Angkor Wat, of Cambodia's nationhood - has already been a source of much political capital for Hun Sen.
After the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization announced its World Heritage Site listing on July 7, 2008, over Thai objections the government trumpeted its "achievement" with a massive free concert at Phnom Penh's Olympic Stadium. The patriotic sentiment boosted the CPP in that month's national elections, which it won in a landslide, clinching 90 of the National Assembly's 123 seats. Billboards featuring a photo of Preah Vihear temple sitting under a Cambodian flag have since become a common sight across the country.
"Hun Sen has played pretty well with the national sentiment and he benefited quite a lot during the 2008 election. That was the beginning," Ou Virak said. He added that with each fresh outbreak of fighting, Cambodians tended to "look to the strongman" for protection.
Some have argued the fighting has also provided an opportunity for Hun Sen to boost the political credentials of his son Hun Manet, who he is reportedly grooming as a powerful military ally and possible prime ministerial successor. Hun Manet, a West Point graduate who was this year promoted to deputy commander of the Cambodian infantry, was reported to have commanded troops at Preah Vihear during February's clashes.
There is no clear evidence that he was involved in the latest round of hostilities, though the Bangkok Post reported on May 2 that Hun Manet had spoken on radio in Anlong Veng and Samrong, two districts close to the border, offering "a house and five rai [1,600 square meters] of land" to anyone willing to join the military and fight against Thailand.
Superior firepower
Given Thailand's overwhelming military superiority - in 2009, Bangkok spent US$2.9 billion on its military compared to Cambodia's $191 million, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute - Hun Sen is walking a fine line. The prime minister is playing a "very high stakes game" with a powerful neighbor, Ou Virak said, and had to be careful not to let the border situation get out of his control.
In a statement last week, self-exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy wrote that Cambodia risked war because of "the aggression from Thailand associated with the incapability of the Hun Sen government to peacefully resolve a border conflict". The Sam Rainsy Party president said the simmering conflict with Thailand helped mask more pressing domestic issues, such as persistent rights abuses and corruption, and drew attention away from alleged border incursions by Vietnam along the country's eastern border.
"We must not allow the Hun Sen government to use the conflict with Thailand in the west as a political ploy to divert the attention and the anger of the Khmer people from the aggression by Vietnam in the east," wrote Rainsy, who has been sentenced to a total of 12 years in jail on charges stemming from his campaign to expose the alleged incursions by Hanoi, the CPP's long time political patron.
Another problem, Ou Virak pointed out, is that Hun Sen and the CPP are taking considerable risks for what amounts to a series of diminishing returns: the party already maintains a stranglehold on power, and faces an opposition that is increasingly divided and cowed by legal assaults and political maneuvering. Few doubt that the CPP will again prevail in next year's commune council elections and national polls set for 2013.
Given his fundamentally weak position vis-a-vis Thailand, Hun Sen's recent public speeches on the issue have mixed his trademark fiery rhetoric with calls for negotiations to end the conflict. In an address on April 27, Hun Sen proposed that ceasefire talks be held during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Jakarta on May 7-8, but could not help back-ending the speech with some invective against his Thai counterpart, Abhisit Vejjajiva.
"I have never met a Thai prime minister as bad as Abhisit. He was cruel, ordered the attack on Cambodia and threatened to take control of Cambodia," the Phnom Penh Post quoted him as saying. The premier then ended with a warning in an aphorism: "Cambodia is poor and small but our weapons are not like a slingshot, and don't forget that the ant can hurt the elephant."
Puangthong Pawakapan, an analyst based at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Hun Sen might also be bidding to force Thailand to accept third-party mediation to the Preah Vihear conflict, with the ultimate aim of safeguarding the country's UNESCO listing - something the Abhisit government has said it will try to have reversed.
"I believe his main concern was to have the Thai government stop interfering with the temple inscription and development plan," she said, suggesting that may also have prompted Hun Sen's controversial appointment of Thaksin as an advisor. "He probably believed that as long as Abhisit remained prime minister, it was hard for Cambodia to solve the issue with Thailand."
Given the nationalistic forces at play on the Thai side, however, even the formation of a stable, pro-Thaksin government after the scheduled elections is unlikely to bring an end to the border conflict. Puangthong said that the nationalistic People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest group will be waiting in the wings, ready to take to the streets if they fear the government is failing to defend Thai territory.
"As long as Thai politics is highly polarized and no government could gain trust and respect from all major political factions", she said, "a peaceful solution for the border dispute is difficult to achieve".
Sebastian Strangio is a journalist based in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. He can be reached at sebastian.strangio@gmail.com.
9 comments:
Sebastian Strangio, you should not believe anything Bangkok Post or the Nation write. You should not even quote them: theirs news are the invented news.
Now do you get Hun Sen? If the US want you dead they can do it anytime they want, so don’t be too arrogant. Look at Bin Laden as an example, Tuol Krasaing does not protect you.
Hun Sen and Abhisit has differnce in personal and political agendas.
But the world especially US shall not coattailing Thai rmed forces in shaking up Cambodia peace and harmonious existence.
US says less in Thai and Cambodia conflict over its unilateral drwan map in 1960. US provides intelligence support to Thai armed forces in testing Cambodia -China bond.
From the outlook,Thai seemed so innocent in matter.But from Bhumibol to Prem,Thai armed forces are at their private use.Hun Sen may be bad and crute but Thailand is not far from dictatorial and militaristic stranglehold of its own people.
Not only the Viet has sent millions of their people into Cambodia, they are sending drugs as well to Cambodia to poison young Khmer population.
យួនប្តីប្រពន្ធនិងប្អូនត្រូវបញ្ជូនទៅតុលាការបន្ទាប់ពីឆែកឆេរ ៥កន្លែងទៀតរកឃើញសារធាតុគ្រឿងញៀនជិត៤០គីឡូក្រាម
រាជធានី ភ្នំពេញ ៖ ជនជាតិយួន៣នាក់ គឺប្តីប្រពន្ធ និងប្អូន នៅថ្ងៃទី៣ ឧសភានេះត្រូវសមត្ថកិច្ចនាំខ្លួនទៅកាន់សាលាដំបូងរាជធានី ដើម្បីសាកសួរ និងចោទប្រកាន់ជាផ្លូវការចំពោះពួកគេពាក់ព័ន្ធនឹងការផលិតគ្រឿង ញៀនយ៉ាងធំមួយនៅក្នុងរាជធានី។ ជាមួយនឹងការនាំខ្លួននេះសមត្ថកិច្ចក៏បានប្រមូលវត្ថុតាង
It is clear that the conflict in border with Thailand is a political capital for Hun Sen to gain popularity and votes. It is like the listing of Unesco, Sok An can bring 90 seats to CPP without working hard...
The drama of politics under Hun Sen's smartness is not elses but devastating Cambodia.
yea...Government is playing game with Khmer citizen live and future just to stay in power to make more money for it member and Vietnam. Get Out Hun Sen
"សៀមមិនចោលក្បួន យួនមិនចោលពុត"ខ្មែរគ្រប់
រូបចងចាំពាក្យនេះ។ ខ្មែរចេះតែថា ហើយ ចាំរត់មាត់
ប៉ុន្តែមិនប្រតិបត្តិ និង ធ្វើតាមពាក្យដ៏មានខ្លឹមសារនេះ
។ សៀមនិយាយក្រឡិចក្រឡុច ខាងពាក្យសម្ដី ។
យួនពុតពាលអាក្រក់ ត្បកស្អំ លូកលាន់ល ស៊ីសាច់
ហុតឈាម អង្កៀមឆ្អឹងខ្មែរ។ បើស្រីមានឫក្ស
មារយាទមាយាដកទង។ ខ្មែរចាមអស់ដីព្រោះស្រី
យួនចង្រៃនេះ។ ឥឡូវត្រូវនេះ យួនស្រកីយកទឹក
ដីខ្មែរ កោះត្រល់ ដែនទឹកសមុទ្ទ លូកលាន់ចូល
ដីគោកយក អស់ពាន់ម៉ែត្រក្រឡា ហើយទាំង
ត្រួតត្រាលើប្រទេសកម្ពុជាទាំងមូល។
Koh Tral Island must not be forgotten
By Ms. Rattana Keo
Why do Koh Tral Island, known in Vietnam as Phu Quoc, a sea and land area covering proximately over 30,000 km2 [Note: the actual land size of Koh Tral itself is 574 square kilometres (222 sq miles)] have been lost to Vietnam by whose treaty? Why don’t Cambodia government be transparent and explain to Cambodia army at front line and the whole nation about this? Why don't they include this into education system? Why?
Cambodian armies are fighting at front line for 4.6 km2 on the Thai border and what's about over 30,000km2 of Cambodia to Vietnam. Nobody dare to talk about it! Why? Cambodian armies you are decide the fate of your nation, Cambodian army as well as Cambodian people must rethink about this again and again. Is it fair?
Koh Tral Island, the sea and land area of over 30,000 square kilometres have been lost to Vietnam by the 1979 to 1985 treaties. The Cambodian army at front line as well as all Cambodian people must rethink again about these issues. Are Cambodian army fighting to protect the Cambodia Nation or protecting a very small group that own big lands, big properties or only protecting a small group but disguising as protecting the Khmer nation?
The Cambodian army at front lines suffer under rain, wind, bullets, bombs, lack of foods, lack of nutrition and their families have no health care assistance, no securities after they died but a very small group eat well, sleep well, sleep in first class hotel with air conditioning system with message from young girls, have first class medical care from oversea medical treatments, they are billionaires, millionaires who sell out the country to be rich and make the Cambodian people suffer everyday.
Who signed the treaty 1979-1985 that resulted in the loss over 30,000 km2 of Cambodia??? Why they are not being transparent and brave enough to inform all Cambodians and Cambodian army at front line about these issues? Why don't they include Koh Tral (Koh Tral size is bigger than the whole Phom Phen and bigger than Singapore [Note: Singapore's present land size is 704 km2 (271.8 sq mi)]) with heap of great natural resources, in the Cambodian education system?
Look at Hun Sen's families, relatives and friends- they are billionaires, millionaires. Where did they get the money from when we all just got out of war with empty hands [in 1979]? Hun Sen always say in his speeches that Cambodia had just risen up from the ashes of war, just got up from Year Zero with empty hands and how come they are billionaires, millionaires but 90% of innocent Cambodian people are so poor and struggling with their livelihood every day?
Smart Khmer girl Ms. Rattana Keo,
Var Kim Hong does recognize that Cambodia, if compared to the colonial Service Geographique de l’Indochine scale map 1/100,000 and the 1985 delimitation treaty, will loses 9,000 hectares; and compared to U.S Army Mapping Service scale map 1/50,000 with the 1985 Treaty, would lose about 7,900 hectares to Vietnam. This statement was confirmed by Var Kim Hong to Mr. Touch Bora Esq through a telephone conversation on 30 August 2002 at 4:30 p.m. (Sydney time), which Mr. Touch Bora Esq wrote in his letter dated on 9 September 2002 sent to Sam Dach Ta Noroudom Sihanouk concerning over border affairs.
In fact, the loss is absolutely more than the 1000 square kilometers stated by MP Sam Rainsy in his statement, if we add the size of the historical water of 30000 square kilometers awarded to Vietnam under the 1982 Agreement which has been into affect and now already become under the full control of Vietnam. And this would not be the last if the equidistance principle be used to delimit the maritime boundary, Cambodia will lose an additional area of sea and seabed measuring at least 860 square nautical miles from the Brevie Line to the north, analyzed by Mr. Touch Bora Esq or another 10000 square kilometers confirmed by Mr. Sean Pengse, the President of the Cambodian Border Committee Worldwide, which exclusively include another Koh Poula Wai to Vietnam added to the previous lost islands- Koh Tral (Dao Phu Quoc) and Koh Poulo Panjang (Dao Thu Chu).
This is why sVar Kim Hong said in front of Students´s Movement for Democracy (SMD), and Sam Dach Ta Norodom Sihanouk on 22 Janaury 2000 during our audience with him concerning the border resolution with Vietnam that; “If we want peace, we must sacrifice our flesh to the tiger.” The truth is discovered now that, “Sacrifice the flesh to tiger actually means cutting our land to the Viet.” This word was clearly spoken out from his mouth and there were Sam Dach Ta as witness and 31 members.
We must condemn this Var Kim Hong for his role in helping the traitorous regime of Hun Sen.
Smart Khmer Girl Ms. Rattana Keo,
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