Wikileaks: A/S HILL DISCUSSES BURMA, CAMBODIA, LAOS, CHINA

A/S HILL DISCUSSES BURMA, CAMBODIA, LAOS, CHINA

Reference ID: 06HANOI244

Created: 2006-02-06 06:55

Released: 2011-08-30 01:44

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED

Origin: Embassy Hanoi

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SUBJECT: A/S HILL DISCUSSES BURMA, CAMBODIA, LAOS, CHINA

WITH SENIOR VIETNAMESE DIPLOMATS

¶1. Summary: In a frank lunch meeting January 13 with

visiting EAP Assistant Secretary Christopher R. Hill, senior

GVN diplomats said that Vietnam is worried about China's

increasing influence in Southeast Asia, particularly Burma,

Cambodia and Laos, and urged the United States to engage

more with these countries. Hun Sen, they predicted, will

"not go too far" in his political actions, which are

designed to protect his efforts to secure public support for

his coalition in advance of the 2008 elections in Cambodia.

Incentives will have more of an effect on Hun Sen than

criticism. Both sides expressed a desire to pursue dialogue

in a more formal channel in the future. End Summary.

¶2. EAP Assistant Secretary Christopher R. Hill met three

high-ranking GVN diplomats for lunch January 13 at the

Ambassador's residence: Assistant Foreign Minister for the

Americas Nguyen Duc Hung; Assistant Foreign Minister for

Southeast Asia Do Ngoc Son; and, Ambassador Trinh Quang

Thanh, Director General of the Institute for International

Relations. The conversation focused on China's role in Asia

and U.S. relations with Southeast Asia, particularly

mainland Southeast Asia. The Ambassador, POL/C, PolOff and

A/S Hill's Special Assistant also attended.

¶3. A/S Hill observed that Vietnam is playing an increasingly

positive role in the region, and that the potential for a

close U.S.-Vietnam relationship is building. Our

relationship with Vietnam will not be focused on China, he

predicted, but on our many common interests. Vietnam's

transformation into a capitalist economy is evident from the

vibrant commerce visible on the streets of Hanoi, despite

the prominent placement of statues of Lenin. Ambassador

Thanh responded that though Marxism-Leninism remains the

ideological underpinning of the Vietnamese State, the people

of Vietnam care mostly about peace, prosperity, security and

the ability to send their children to good schools.

CHINESE INTERESTS IN VIETNAM

----------------------------

¶4. Ambassador Thanh acknowledged that Chinese investment in

Vietnam is low compared to the very high (and growing)

levels of trade, especially on the border. The limited

Chinese investment dollars are focused on natural resources,

AFM Hung noted, highlighting Chinese interest in an

investment in a bauxite mining operation in the Central

Highlands near the Cambodian border. This investment is

particularly interesting because the Chinese have also

purchased a 99-year lease on 40,000 HA of land on the

Cambodian side of the border opposite the site of the

planned Bauxite operation, Thanh said, ostensibly with the

purpose of growing trees for paper pulp.

BURMA AND CAMBODIA

------------------

¶5. The huge land purchase on the border brings Cambodian

politics into the picture, AFM Son noted, because the issue

of the Vietnam-Cambodia border has become contentious and

also because the land the Chinese purchased has an existing

population of Cambodians that will be displaced. Cambodian

Prime Minister Hun Sen's political opponents have used

sensitive international issues such as the border and the

Chinese land purchase to inflame public opinion against him,

Son said. A/S Hill replied that Hun Sen has demonstrated

his lack of sophistication in dealing with the opposition by

treating them so harshly, thus turning local critics into

international heroes.

¶6. AFM Son noted that Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party

(CPP) and FUNCINPEC have worked hard to strengthen their

coalition and are actively preparing for the 2008 elections.

The opposition's tactic of focusing on Cambodia's relations

with its neighbors to fan nationalist sentiment and popular

discontent is harmful to the CPP and FUNCINPEC. Vietnam,

AFM Son continued, solved its border problem with Cambodia

on the basis of international law and past agreements in

order to come up with a good, defensible solution. A/S Hill

commented that Hun Sen's problem is that he seems unable to

HANOI 00000244 002 OF 003

defend his regime's decisions in a public forum, and instead

resorts to taking action against his critics.

¶7. AFM Son said that Vietnam has been a frequent target of

the opposition's efforts to undermine Hun Sen's government

through criticism of improvements in Vietnam-Cambodia

relations. Still, Vietnam has refrained from responding in

kind, and instead has pursued low-key confidence-building

measures along the border, providing assistance to

Cambodians in border areas by allowing them to use

Vietnamese infrastructure such as hospitals and schools.

"Cambodian politics are complicated and difficult to

understand, so we do not try to interfere," he said. The

Ambassador noted that there is a big difference between

interference and constructive influence, and Vietnam is in a

position to constructively influence developments in Phnom

Penh. A good example of constructive influence can be seen

in the ASEAN statement on Burma, he added.

¶8. Responding to A/S Hill's statement that Burma has become

an embarrassment to ASEAN, Ambassador Thanh said that the

result of the international pressure on Burma, from ASEAN

and other countries, has been to drive Burma "into the arms

of the Chinese." The United States, Ambassador Thanh said,

needs to engage Burma more. AFM Son agreed. "The more

pressure we put on Burma, the closer the Burmese get to

China," he said, pointing out that the Chinese Foreign

Minister skipped the July 2005 ASEAN Post-Ministerial

Conference (where Burma was forced to give up the 2006

Chairmanship of ASEAN) and instead went straight to Rangoon.

The Burmese regime is defensive and wary of Western

countries, Ambassador Thanh pointed out, because it believes

that its legitimacy and survival are in jeopardy. The

Burmese are close to China, he continued, but their only

alternative to balance China has become India. AFM Hung

opined that the United States should engage more with

Southeast Asia in general, and mainland Southeast Asia in

particular. Burma, Cambodia and Laos are all moving closer

and closer to the Chinese orbit because of perceived

hostility or indifference from the United States, he said.

¶9. A/S Hill asked about the potential influence Thailand and

Vietnam could have over Hun Sen and the regime in Burma.

AFM Son observed wryly that Hun Sen is very shrewd and

listens to Vietnam only when it is both convenient and

profitable for him to do so. Hun Sen is also very capable

of manipulating his neighbors and other countries in the

region, Son said. Hun Sen knows that the top priority for

regional countries is stability in Cambodia, with the

secondary concern being growing Chinese influence. These

concerns restrict the degree to which regional countries can

pressure Hun Sen. Thailand could conceivably have a larger

role to play, but the Thai are still recovering from the

breakdown in relations that occurred between Cambodia and

Thailand in January 2004 (following the torching of the Thai

Embassy in Phnom Penh). In general, Thailand lacks the

goodwill and trust of its neighbors, but Vietnam and

Thailand have coinciding interests in the region.

¶10. AFM Son noted that in Hun Sen's mind, the opposition

uses his accomplishments and the things he does to build the

country as tools to discredit him. He is both pragmatic and

nationalist, AFM Hung observed, and as a result, confronting

him bluntly on any issue is likely to fail. AFM Son said

that the top priority of Hun Sen and FUNCINPEC is to improve

their popularity in advance of the 2008 elections, and their

strategy for doing that is to "build the country and develop

the economy." Anything the United States could provide to

assist with that will have a positive effect on Hun Sen, he

predicted. China knows this, he said; in August 2005, Hun

Sen visited China and came away with USD 200 million in aid

and low interest loans for infrastructure development. A/S

Hill observed that Hun Sen's actions in Cambodia have become

a real problem, generating serious negative attention and

creating a situation where Cambodia could become as much of

a pariah state as Burma is. AFM Son predicted that Hun Sen

"will not let it go too far" because he is, in the end,

practical and reasonable.

HANOI 00000244 003 OF 003

LAOS

----

¶11. AFM Hung said that one constant for all Southeast Asian

countries is the understanding that they need good relations

with both the United States and China, and that excessive

closeness to either is not in their best interests. With

that in mind, the United States can expect both Cambodia and

Laos to open up to better relations, unless, due to

excessive pressure, they become completely alienated like

Burma. Ambassador Thanh noted that Laos is not opposed to

better relations with the United States, but has been

disappointed with the results of its efforts so far. Laos

expected to see much more benefit from signing the BTA with

the United States, but the signing did not lead to

additional projects to alleviate poverty, Laos' top

priority. Ambassador Hill replied that the allocation of

U.S. resources to a country is a function of that country's

strategic importance to the United States and U.S. domestic

interest. Unlike, Afghanistan, for example, Laos has

neither strategic importance nor U.S. domestic interest.

AFM Son replied that Laos does have importance to China, and

as a result, the Chinese are moving in fast, especially on

the economic front.

U.S.-VIETNAM RELATIONS

----------------------

¶12. A/S Hill noted that policy discussions on regional

issues are very useful for the United States and suggested

the United States and Vietnam think seriously about how to

pursue dialogue more systematically. AFM Hung said Vietnam

is ready and willing to pursue a strategic dialogue with the

United States at the Vice Minister level. Turning to WTO

negotiations, A/S Hill urged the three senior officials not

to let talks drag on over small points of contention because

the end benefits for Vietnam will dwarf any small

concessions made now.

¶13. A/S Hill has cleared this message.

BOARDMAN